Jewish World Review April 2, 2003 / 29 Adar II, 5763
Jack Kelly
The difference between hopes and expectations
http://www.NewsAndOpinion.com |
DOHA, Qatar We are learning, the hard way, the difference between hopes
and expectations. All of us had hoped the war with Iraq would be over very
quickly. But we had little reason to expect this result.
Saddam Hussein has the support of no more than 10 percent of the people he
has misruled for so many years, probably no more than 5 percent. As a
proportion of population, this is trivial. But in a nation of at least 20
million people, it is a nontrivial number. And it is Saddam's supporters,
remember, who have the guns.
We had hoped that Saddam's supporters would quit without much of a fight.
But this, too, was unrealistic. Our goal in this conflict is not just to
push an aggressor out of Kuwait, as it was in the last Gulf war. It is
regime change. Thousands of Iraqis are implicated in Saddam's crimes. Tens
of thousands owe their positions of power and privilege to his favor. For
them, regime change means - at a minimum - loss of status, and could mean
loss of life, as neighbors long trod under by their jackboots take their
revenge. When your existence is at stake, you fight harder than when it is
not.
We had hoped Saddam had learned nothing from the first Gulf war. But that,
too, was unrealistic. A military genius Saddam is not. But a complete
dullard could not have maintained an iron grip on power for 24 years.
The lesson of Gulf War I is that the United States can cream the Iraqis in a
stand-up fight. Had Saddam chosen to meet our forces head on in the desert,
the length of this war likely could have been measured in days.
So Saddam has interspersed his forces in cities, villages and towns, to take
advantage of his principal strength - his ruthlessness - and our principal
weakness - our humanity. Saddam's forces store arms in and make command
posts of hospitals and schools. They use women and children as human
shields. Soldiers and secret police doff their uniforms to blend in with the
civilian population. They fly flags of surrender, and then conduct ambushes.
There is no law of land warfare the Saddamites haven't broken, except the
use of chemical and biological weapons. And that likely is coming.
In heavily Shi'ia southern Iraq, we had hoped for mass surrenders. But the
Fedayeen Saddam and the secret police are shooting soldiers who try to lay
down their arms, and are executing civilians who show friendliness to
American and British troops. It is unrealistic to expect mass surrenders
under such circumstances.
Despite the dashing of unrealistic hopes, the war is going well - about as
well as reasonably could have been expected. Every casualty we suffer is a
tragedy. But none have so far been a "setback," and casualties overall have
been remarkably low. The Republican Guard and the Fedayeen Saddam have often
fought fiercely, but have rarely fought effectively. We have suffered more
casualties through acts of treachery, and in accidents, than we have in
direct combat.
Most Americans know what they know of war from movies and television. In
Hollywood, wars last a couple of hours, and build steadily toward a dramatic
climax. Real wars last longer, and proceed in fits and starts. Having made
the most rapid advance in the history of mechanized warfare, our ground
forces are now pausing to resupply and reposition for the next phase of the
offensive.
The delay will be hard on an American public accustomed to instant
gratification, and will be harder still on journalists who need something
new to report in each news cycle. What journalists likely will report during
this pause is how it might adversely affect the Coalition. But time is on
the American side, not Saddam's. Each day brings more troops and more
supplies to our forces. There is no reinforcement, and little resupply, for
the Republican Guard. And each day brings it more visits from American
bombers.
We had not expected to have to fight so hard south of Baghdad. But Saddam's
resources are finite. The more of his troops who are killed, captured or
bypassed on the way to Baghdad, the fewer remain to defend the capital
itself.
The hopes that this would be a very short war were chiefly those of
journalists, not of soldiers. The Pentagon planned for a war that would last
for weeks, and could last for months. Proof of that is that roughly half of
the ground combat forces planned to take part in the war have yet to arrive
in the theater.
Our illusory hopes have been dashed, but not the military's expectations.
And a war of weeks is still a very short war. The facts on the ground do not
justify the pessimism now being expressed by so many commentators. Victory
is nigh . . . just not as nigh as the next commercial break.
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JWR contributor Jack Kelly, a former Marine and Green Beret, was a
deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan
administration. Comment by clicking here.
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03/04/03: Bioterror nightmare approaching --- how it could likely happen
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© 2002, Jack Kelly
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