Jewish World Review Jan. 29, 2003 / 26 Shevat, 5763
Jack Kelly
A bit of the jitters
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Oil prices soared when Secretary of State Colin Powell said it would be
clear by the end of January that Iraq was flouting the UN resolution calling
upon it to disarm.
Two mechanized infantry divisions and three more aircraft carrier battle
groups have been ordered to Persian Gulf. Thousands of reservists are being
ordered to active duty. War is near.
War will not be deterred by foot-dragging at the United Nations, or by
jitters at home. Only Saddam's abdication can prevent it. War will commence
when sufficient force has been assembled and acclimatized -- sometime in
late February or early March - or sooner, should Saddam choose to launch a
pre-emptive attack.
For reasons both economic and military, President Bush knows that now that
he has put the war machine in motion, he must act soon after it is in place.
The deployment will cost about a billion dollars a month, and this time the
Saudis and the Japanese won't be picking up most of the tab. The stock
market is stuttering because of uncertainty about war. It won't begin to
climb steadily until the business in Iraq has been concluded.
The military would like to finish in Iraq before summer begins. But the
impediment desert heat poses to military operations has been exaggerated.
Americans fight chiefly at night, when it is cool. And because we have more
and better equipment than the Iraqis, and train more, we are better prepared
to fight in the summer heat.
The military argument for urgency is concern about having too many of our
military resources tied up in one region, doing nothing. The massive
deployment disrupts normal rotations, and lowers our guard in other areas of
the world. Prolonged idleness by the expeditionary force would harm morale
and lower readiness. And it's no accident why North Korea picked now to pick
a quarrel with the United States.
Doves at home and abroad say: Why not give UN weapons inspectors more time?
The better question is: Why give them more time? It is clear both that Iraq
is in material breach, and that many in the UN do not wish to come to grips
with the implications of this fact.
Doves have a "heads I win, tails you lose" argument. If inspectors find more
evidence Iraq has violated the resolution the UN passed calling upon it to
disarm, they'll say this is "proof" the inspections are working. If the
inspectors find no more illegal weapons, the doves will say there isn't
enough evidence to justify an attack.
Polls indicate popular support for the military action against Iraq is
fading, and that most Americans do not favor an attack without UN approval.
But the president knows this is meaningless. It is normal and natural for
there to be jitters when war is near. The public expressed similar doubts
before the first Gulf War. Only 46 percent of Americans supported military
action against Iraq in the last Gallup poll taken before that conflict
began.
The president knows that if the war goes badly, he'll be in political
trouble even if the UN Security Council unanimously blessed the attack. And
Bush knows that if the war goes well, those who are criticizing him now will
be trying to convince people they were actually always really on his side.
Victory has a thousand fathers. Defeat is an orphan.
Whether or not the Security Council approves military action against Iraq
will have a much greater impact on the future of the United Nations than on
whether or not a U.S.-led coalition will be successful. The United States
will have the support of all the countries whose support will be of material
benefit. All the UN can lend is moral support. Granting that support does
not contribute to military success, and withholding it will carry no stigma
for the United States if military operations succeed.
But withholding support could have grave consequences for the United
Nations. If, in postwar Iraq, people joyously celebrate their liberation,
and there is clear and convincing evidence of weapons of mass destruction,
then the UN will have proven to be not merely impotent, as the League of
Nations was against fascist aggression in the 1930s, but on the wrong side.
If the UN isn't careful, it could follow Saddam Hussein into the ashheap of
history.
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© 2002, Jack Kelly
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