Jewish World Review Nov. 15, 2001 / 29 Mar-Cheshvan, 5762
James K. Glassman
The "Next Big Thing" in Technology?
http://www.NewsAndOpinion.com --
YOU may know Jim Jubak from
his frequent appearances on
CNBC. Jubak, the senior
markets editor at MSN Money,
holds a core investing
principle: the conventional
wisdom is always wrong.
Suffice it to say that this guy
has an independent streak,
which is a great virtue for the long-term investor. And while I
don't believe that the conventional wisdom is always wrong, I
do think that Jubak may have spotted an emerging trend.
The folks in Silicon Valley are always looking for the "next big
thing" that will drive growth across the entire technology
industry. The advent of the PC was a big thing. So was the
Internet. Ditto wireless communication. Jubak believes that
the next big thing will involve display technology - innovations
in the way that we view words, photographs, graphics, and
moving images. If he's correct, revolutionary improvements in
this area could drive growth in software as well as hardware,
networks along with personal devices.
Jubak points out that while we've seen tremendous innovation
in just about every area of digital technology, there's a
glaring exception. "The old bulky cathode ray tube that is
probably at the heart of the computer monitor that sits on
your desk is a relic from the invention of the television more
than 70 years ago. Only in the last year have monitors based
on other technologies started to show up in appreciable
numbers on desktops," he says.
In Jubak's view, a quantum leap in the way we display images
could involve not just better PC monitors but widespread
digital cameras and VCRs, digital projection of movies, better
graphics chips for video games, better printing technology, as
well as hardware and software used to create, manipulate
and store images. Therefore, he's picked six companies that
stand to benefit from the "display" era. Two of the six are
firms that I've complimented before. Adobe (ticker symbol:
ADBE) makes the popular Acrobat software for displaying
printed documents in digital form, as well as Photoshop, used
by professionals and amateurs alike in creating and
manipulating pictures and graphics. He also likes Nvidia
(NVDA), the fast-growing maker of graphics chips. Jubak is
sweet on Electronics for Imaging (EFII), ARM Holdings
(ARMHY), Genesis Microchip (GNSS) and Gemstar-TV Guide
International (GMST), because of its lock on on-screen
programming guides and evolving VCR and TV applications.
Arik Hesseldahl of Forbes.com is also impressed with Genesis
Microchip's technology and hyper revenue growth. And
Hesseldahl has spotted a few more up-and-comers that could
make the LCD display on your laptop look like Stone Age
technology. Kopin (KOPN) and eMagin (EMA) are young
companies that have recently signed up a number of
customers in the Department of Defense. In fact, eMagin will
be creating the display technology for a new helmet that Air
Force F-15 pilots will begin wearing in 2003.
Both eMagin and another firm called Universal Display (PANL)
use a technology called organic light-emitting diodes (OLED)
and this stuff (to use the Silicon Valley vernacular) could get
really cool in a hurry. Hesseldahl reports that Universal Display
is working on transparent display devices that could be rolled
up like a window shade when not in use or allow for
crystal-clear images to be projected on to your car windshield
or eyeglasses. The caveat here is that KOPN, EMA, and PANL
are all small, money losing companies and that each carries a
substantial amount of risk.
Those investors looking for a larger, more established firm to
play in the display era might also consider Motorola (MOT),
which is developing new carbon-based display screens that
promise to be ultra-thin, ultra-light and require very little
power.
And then of course there's Microsoft (MSFT). Chairman Bill
Gates has devoted substantial research to creating a light,
convenient electronic tablet that's as easy and as pleasant to
read as a newspaper. And who wouldn't want
that?
JWR contributor James K. Glassman is the host of Tech Central Station. Comment by clicking here.
10/30/01: A National I.D. Card? Yes; Run By Larry Ellison? No
10/25/01: Without Bayer, we're bare to bioterror
10/18/01: The Battle of Biotech
10/05/01: Two Techs for Tough Times
09/26/01: The Information War
09/05/01: Tech firms built to last through tough times
08/23/01: Stocks on the A-List
08/17/01: Labor and management finding online learning to their liking
08/08/01: Game makers poised to profit
07/19/01: Trade Promotion Authority: High-Tech’s Key Component for Competitiveness
07/12/01: Nothing’s arbitrary about the contrarians
06/27/01: Look to Politics to Find Broadband's Market Cap Shortfall
06/22/01: Tech Commodity Buys Available for Mining
06/18/01: The Blackout Portfolio
06/14/01: The conservation myth stars as latest (sub)urban legend
06/07/01: Will America go high tech on the high seas?
06/05/01: 'Price gouging' doesn't cut it as reason for rising energy prices
06/01/01: Authentication tools opening up opportunities in online security
05/25/01: 'Price gouging' doesn’t cut it as reason for rising energy prices
05/21/01: Banking on High-Tech Education
05/17/01: It's No Time to Go Wobbly on Kyoto
05/02/01: Diversify with tech’s leaders
04/26/01: To Revive The New Economy, Release A Chokehold Break Up The Bells
04/24/01: Who’s To Blame For Broadband Crisis? Wired Article Points To Bells
04/19/01: The Bush Budget
04/12/01: To revive The New Economy, release a chokehold --- break up the Bells
04/04/01: Even as stocks have fallen, the Net keeps booming
03/28/01: Where’s The Profit In Biotech Future?
03/22/01: The Joy of Debt: The last thing we should want is a U.S. Treasury flush with cash
03/19/01: 'Defensive' Stocks in the NASDAQ
03/15/01: Bush administration must say no to Jane and Kyoto
03/08/01: Time to buy small caps? Consider these five great techs
03/01/01: Bill’s and Larry’s continued political adventures
02/26/01: Chips on the Dips?
02/23/01: How Tauzin Can Keep His Word And Stop Telecom "Remonopolization"
02/13/01: Consumers, WAKE UP! Middlemen are ripping you off
02/02/01: Publicity-Seeking Politicians and Contingency-Fee Lawyers Corrupt the Law
01/26/01: DoubleClick, eBay And Their Promising Ilk
01/24/01: Will Cyberspace Look Like France or America?
12/27/00: Cut interest, taxes and regulation to save high-tech economy
12/20/00: Close, But No Big Czar
12/15/00: A Down Year? Maybe. But Let’s Put It in Perspective
12/13/00: Clinton’s sorry midnight race into history
12/07/00: Is Telecom’s Future The Bells, The Bells, and Only The Bells?
12/01/00: Money talks and walks in election aftermath
11/29/00: Climate Treaty Deadlock Shows Lack of Consensus and Common Sense
11/23/00: Climate change participants don’t listen to reasons for uncertainty
11/21/00: Will Regulators Create a Recession?
11/14/00: The Election and the Market
10/26/00: Hang on for the long term
10/25/00: On privacy, one size doesn’t fit all
10/24/00: Perish the bearish thought
10/19/00: Beating hunger --- the biggest prize
10/13/00: Way to play biotech
10/12/00: Bush vs. Gore on Technology
10/11/00: Global Climate Scare: Fools Rush In
10/05/00: Avoid the Apple Trap
10/03/00: Goodbye, anti-Microsoft crusader --- and good riddance
09/29/00: Should You Invest in Tech IPOs?
09/27/00: Could technology end airline delays?
09/22/00: Don’t Forget Small Caps
09/20/00: Is the New York Times Rooting for Disaster?
09/13/00: The Best Argument Against Net Regulation
08/30/00: Political Risk in Big Drug Stocks
07/27/00: Tech Dividends
07/25/00: Government Privacy Violators
07/20/00: If I Had to Pick One Tech Stock
07/18/00: Our Favorite Lawsuit
07/13/00: Silicon Valley East
07/11/00: Election 2000: Year of the Investor Class?
07/07/00: Adventures on the Amazon.com
07/06/00:The Difference Between Bill Gates and Larry Ellison
06/29/00: In the Chips
06/27/00: Free market wins in Federal Court!
06/22/00: Wireless Bargains?
06/20/00: Is Your SUV Warming the Planet?
06/15/00: Shopping for Government
06/13/00: Top 10 Tech Stocks
06/08/00: Riding the eBook Wave
06/06/00: "The Last Mile"
06/02/00: Keep Buying!
05/31/00: Who Asked the FTC to Regulate Online Privacy?
05/25/00: "When It’s Time to Sell"
05/23/00: End the "Telephone Tax"
05/16/00: Time Warner Gets a Bad Rap
© 2000, Tech Central Station
|