Morton Kondracke
http://www.jewishworldreview.com --
WHETHER HE'S PLAYING the populist or New Democrat,
whether he's going negative or positive, the polling
news just keeps getting worse for Vice President Al Gore.
In five national polls released over the past two weeks, Texas Gov. George W. Bush's (R) lead over Gore averaged 8.3 points, up from 5 points in April and May.
In results released last week, the Voter.com Battleground survey showed Bush's lead at 12 points, up from 6 in May and 4 in March. The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed Bush leading by 8 points in June, compared with 5 in April. In March, Gore was ahead by 3 points.
The week before, the Zogby poll showed Bush up by nearly 8 points, compared to 1 in May. The Los Angeles Times showed Bush up by 10 percent, compared to 8 in May. Only the Washington Post/ABC News poll showed a 1-point narrowing of Bush's lead, from 5 points to 4.
The new polls do not take into account Gore's "prosperity tour," the death penalty controversy in Texas or the gasoline price spike, but it's difficult to see how any of this will improve Gore's position.
And a Justice Department investigator's recommendation that a special counsel be appointed to probe Gore's 1996 fundraising could be a serious threat even if Attorney General Janet Reno again refuses to make the appointment.
Politically speaking, the recommendation links Gore anew to ethical lapses that give President Clinton a personal disapproval rating of 64 percent in the Battleground poll.
Gore's "prosperity tour" is designed to accomplish important and necessary tasks: tie the Vice President to the country's current robust economy and bolster his standing with the Democratic base.
The problem is that news stories about Gore constantly seem to emphasize process - his various theme shifts, personal makeovers and changes in campaign management.
Gore did well in tapping cool-headed Commerce Secretary Bill Daley to replace abrasive ex-Rep. Tony Coehlo (D-Calif.) as his campaign manager, but the switch got more attention than Gore's message.
The new polls indicate Gore still has work to do in consolidating the Democratic base. In the Battleground survey, Bush has the support of 93 percent of Republicans, but Gore only has the support of 79 percent of Democrats.
Voters in union households and women are split almost evenly between Gore and Bush and self-identified "Reagan Democrats" favor Bush by 54 to 36 percent. Gore leads among Hispanics by 53 to 41 percent, but he is scoring about 10 percent below the usual performance for a Democrat.
To solidify the base, Gore has been sounding populist themes of late, blaming oil companies for the increase in gasoline prices and drug companies for the high cost of medicine.
Democrats are trying to tie Bush, a former oil man with industry contributors, to gas prices. But the link isn't clear and the price spike is just as easily pinned on Clinton-Gore energy and environmental policy.
Gore also has been making populist proposals. When he announced his estate tax reduction proposal, he said the Republican alternative would "give a massive tax break to the wealthiest Americans." His other tax cuts and his "retirement savings plus" proposal are skewed heavily toward lower-income Americans.
The major theme of Gore's "prosperity tour" is positive - that "discipline has been essential to the prosperity we have today" and that he wants "to make this election about the big choices we have to make to secure prosperity and progress."
If anyone is listening, these are messages Gore needs to pound home. Right now, according to the Battleground survey, voters believe by a margin of 47 to 35 percent that Bush is better able to keep the country prosperous.
Somehow, Gore has got to make his long experience in national office a decisive factor for voters. He leads Bush in this category by 50 to 38 percent in the Battleground survey and by 40 to 31 percent in the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.
But the NBC poll indicated that experience is currently the third most important quality voters are looking for in a president - and Bush holds huge leads in the first two, trustworthiness and leadership ability.
In both polls, Bush holds a 12-point lead over Gore on the question of who can be trusted to do the right thing. Asked which candidate has stronger leadership qualities, Bush leads by 55 to 30 percent in the Battleground survey and 46 to 25 percent in the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.
Bush presumably bolstered his leadership lead by calmly handling the Gary Graham death penalty controversy in Texas, even if there was reason to think the convicted killer deserved a reprieve because his trial lawyer represented him badly.
The constant refrain of the Gore campaign is that voters - especially
Democrats - are busy with summer concerns and are not focused on
politics. But at the moment, Gore shows no signs he knows how to give
them a wake-up
JWR contributor Morton Kondracke is executive editor of Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill. Send your comments to him by clicking here.
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