Contact The Editor
Articles By This Author
But one problem remains: Erdogan himself.
The president's predilection for flame-throwing remains undimmed, and when faced with political difficulty at home, he tends to train his incendiary rhetoric on Turkey's friends, near and far. For instance, he has likened Israel to Nazi Germany (Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov may have been taking notes), accused the United Arab Emirates of destabilizing the Middle East and said he would never talk to the Egyptian leader, General Abdel Fatah al-Sissi.
If Erdogan is conciliatory now, it isn't because he has seen the error of his ways but because the country's economic problems - many of his making - require him to seek succor wherever he can get it. That also means he can easily perform another U-turn when it becomes politically expedient.
Even with outside help, Turkey's economic fortunes are unlikely to improve dramatically before the presidential election early next summer, and Erdogan may find himself in need of smoke and fire to distract a dissatisfied electorate.
Erdogan's visit to Saudi Arabia late last month caps a flurry of conciliatory gestures that have included a trip to the UAE and outreach to Egypt, Israel and Armenia. (Nor is this program of propitiation limited to the region: The Turkish leader has even been making nice with Emmanuel Macron, having not long ago questioned the French president's mental health.)
Some of these gestures have been accompanied by Turkish concessions on contentious issues. Ankara has reportedly assured Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE that it will scale back support for the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamist group regarded as a threat by the ruling elite in Cairo, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.
The Brotherhood's TV channels in Turkey were told last year to mute their criticism of the Egyptian government, and since Erdogan's visit to Abu Dhabi, speculation has grown that he will encourage the Islamists to scale back their operations in his country.
Erdogan had an additional offering for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman: On the eve of his visit to Riyadh, Turkey ended its trial of the 2018 murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi and transferred the case to Saudi Arabia. The killing occurred in the kingdom's Istanbul consulate, and the Turkish president helped to stoke international opprobrium against Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler while using the opportunity to increase his own stature in the Middle East.
(A subsequent U.S. intelligence assessment concluded that the prince ordered the operation, which he denies.)
The Turkish president has no such gift for Israel, but the government of Prime Minister Naftali Bennett will nonetheless be grateful for Erdogan's relative circumspection during the recent clashes between police and Palestinians in Jerusalem's Al Aqsa mosque.
In comparison with his thundering denunciations of Israel's actions in previous years, his criticism over the past month has been tame. Erdogan told Israeli President Isaac Herzog he was "very upset" when Palestinians were killed or injured.
Herzog has built a remarkable relationship with the Turkish leader, and made a landmark visit to Ankara in March that Erdogan declared a "turning point in relations" between the two countries. Earlier this week, Erdogan wrote to his opposite number on the occasion of the Israeli independence day, and Herzog reciprocated on the phone with Eid greetings.
More important, the improved ties have already yielded an economic dividend: Turkish exports to Israel are up, and Israeli tourists are keen to make the most of the thaw. That would be good news for the Turkish economy, as would the Emirati and Saudi investments that have been promised in the wake of Erdogan's visits. The imminent appointment of a Turkish ambassador to Cairo, after a nine-year hiatus, would also be good for trade with the most populous Arab nation.
But can Turkey maintain these improved relations?
The architect of the old "Zero Problems" policy, then-foreign minister (and later prime minister) Ahmet Davutoglu, has long since broken with Erdogan and is now in the opposition.
The current foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, has neither the international stature of his predecessor nor his strength within the Ankara ruling elite.
He will be keeping his fingers crossed that his boss doesn't bring out the flamethrower again.
(COMMENT, BELOW)
Bobby Ghosh is an Indian-born American journalist and commentator. He is a columnist and member of the editorial board at Bloomberg Opinion, writing on foreign affairs, with a special focus on the Middle East and the wider Islamic world. Starting in 2016, Ghosh was editor-in-chief of the Hindustan Times and TIME Magazine's World Editor.
Previously:
• 05/05/22: The U.S. risks paying a high price for a nuclear deal with Iran
• 04/21/22: Yemen truce is good news for the wider world
• 03/23/22: The world's deadliest war isn't in Ukraine, but in Ethiopia
• 03/11/22: The Dems just doesn't understand Iran's regime
• 03/11/22: In the nuclear face-off with Iran, Biden just blinked
• 01/20/22: So, Trump is responsible for Iran's aggressive behavior?
• 01/18/22: THE SECRET'S OUT: Iran's economic resilience is mostly a mirage
• 01/07/22: Biden must hold Ethiopia's Abiy accountable
• 12/29/21: Fraying Saudi-UAE ties put U.S. objectives at risk
• 11/30/21: Iran demonstrates it isn't serious about nuclear talks
• 11/03/21: To negotiate with the Taliban, bring women to the table
• 10/11/21: Iraq's leader is betting on a hung parliament to retain power
• 09/27/21: A coup fails in Sudan but its fragile democracy remains at risk
• 09/13/21: The Taliban caretakers will keep the neighbors up
• 08/30/21: Trusting the Taliban to fight Islamic State
• 08/23/21: What will the Taliban do with a $22 billion economy?
• 07/28/21: The first and now the last best hope of the Arab Spring is at risk
• 07/15/21: No joy for Iran over the Taliban romp next door
• 07/07/21: Why Macron and Erdogan are suddenly playing nice
• 06/17/21: Iran's election is all about Supreme Leader's toxic legacy
• 08/17/20: Macron's muscle-flexing will make Mediterranean tensions worse
• 08/06/20: Beirut explosions create a dilemma for the world
• 06/25/20: Egypt's el-Sissi suffers a stunning reversal of fortunes
• 05/05/20: The Saudis' defacto leader is stuck exactly where Trump wants him
• 04/20/20: Trump is right to block IMF aid for Iran
• 02/17/20: Algeria wants a role in Libya that it can't afford
• 02/06/20: Iraq's new prime minister may not last long
• 01/27/20: Libya deal is a gentleman's bargain between rogues
• 01/20/20: Europe's lack of resolve is revealing --- to Iran
• 01/14/20: Iran isn't facing a 'Chernobyl moment'