Yemen truce is good news for the wider world

Do we dare hope for Yemen? A truce called at the start of the month has now held for three weeks, far longer than any previous cessation of hostilities. The United Nations envoy to the country, Hans Grundberg, who brokered the deal, has told the Security Council that there is "a chance to steer Yemen in a new direction."

Yemenis will be grateful for even the slimmest of chances. The people of the Middle East's poorest country have endured war for nearly seven years. The United Nations reckons nearly 400,000 have died as a result, and more than three million have been displaced from their homes. More than 24 million people, or 80% of the population, need humanitarian assistance, and 2 in 5 people are at high risk of starvation.

The wider world has long since stopped paying much attention to the unfolding catastrophe. Even before the war in Ukraine came to dominate the headlines, the fighting in Yemen - which pits an Iran-backed rebel militia known as the Houthis against the government, backed by a Saudi Arabia-led coalition - had been consigned to the inside pages.

A country that gets little attention inevitably gets little aid. The UN has been unable to raise the money needed to alleviate Yemeni suffering. Its latest appeal for donations raised less than a third of the target.

The outside powers involved in the conflict have canceled each other out. After his two predecessors paid only lip service to the need for peace in Yemen, President Joe Biden suspended U.S. military support for the Saudi-led coalition. But Iran used this as an opportunity to increase its assistance to the Houthis, who ramped up their rocket and missile attacks on Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

That the warring parties agreed on a truce when the world wasn't watching may, counterintuitively, be the best reason for optimism. Outside pressure can be an important factor in ending conflict, but it is so much the better when the combatants have independently concluded that it is in their interest to stop fighting.

The Saudis recognize that they need to get out of a quagmire that has cost them tens of billions of dollars and earned them international opprobrium. The Yemeni government, in exile since the rebels took the capital Sanaa in 2014, realizes it cannot return in a military triumph. And the Houthis, having experienced their first major loss of territory earlier this year, seem to have accepted they cannot achieve complete domination of the country by force of arms.

All these things have been obvious to outside observers for several years. Belated as it is, the acknowledgement of these realities by the principal protagonists is good not only for Yemen but also the wider world.

Among other things, it removes a persistent threat to the supply of fossil fuels at a time when much of the global economy is struggling to cope with the loss of Russian oil as a result of the war in Ukraine. Only last month, the Saudis warned that their exports could be disrupted by continued Houthi attacks on the kingdom's oil infrastructure. An interruption in Saudi and Emirati supplies would send oil prices, already sky-high, into the stratosphere.

So, quite apart from humane considerations, most of the world has a vested interest in the success of the truce. That includes the Biden administration, which should additionally be glad that it didn't have to expend much diplomatic or political capital to get the protagonists to this point. Better yet, there is no need for U.S. intervention in the next phase of peace-making: Best to let the UN take point on the whole exercise.

The first test of the truce is whether it lasts the full two months agreed by all the parties. The UN's Grundberg will have to use that time to get them around a table to negotiate a formal ceasefire, upon which they can begin to discuss an armistice and post-war arrangement of power.

The process will undoubtedly be protracted and contentious, and all sides will need to help things along with gestures of good faith. The Saudis and Emiratis have already shown some by pressing Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi to hand power to a governing council. The Houthis, having refused to talk to Hadi, must now reciprocate by agreeing to negotiate with the council.

For good measure, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pledged $3 billion in aid to begin the repair of Yemen's wrecked economy. That sum perfectly plugs the gap in donations sought during the latest UN appeal. Under the terms of the truce, the Sanaa airport will be reopened for commercial flights, which should allow some emergency aid to be flown in. The port of Hodeidah will also be opened for shipments of much-needed fuel.

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Trickier compromises lie ahead, including the exchange of prisoners and the ending of the Houthi siege of the southwestern city of Taiz, where the rebels may have to cede battlefield gains.

There is always the possibility that the truce will end without any progress and the fighting will resume. The Houthis used a 2018 UN-brokered pause in the fighting around Hodeidah to rest and re-arm, eventually taking the port nearly a year later.

And finally, there's a risk that the Houthis' patrons in Tehran will lean on them to return to the battlefield. Iran would gain doubly from a resumption in hostilities. Its traditional enemies, the Saudis, would continue to bleed resources. And any spike in oil prices would allow the Islamic Republic to squeeze more revenue from its own sanctions-limited exports.

So there's a great deal that could yet go wrong in Yemen. But, at long last, there's at least the prospect of something going right.

(COMMENT, BELOW)

Bobby Ghosh is an Indian-born American journalist and commentator. He is a columnist and member of the editorial board at Bloomberg Opinion, writing on foreign affairs, with a special focus on the Middle East and the wider Islamic world. Starting in 2016, Ghosh was editor-in-chief of the Hindustan Times and TIME Magazine's World Editor.

Previously:
• 03/23/22: The world's deadliest war isn't in Ukraine, but in Ethiopia
• 03/11/22: The Dems just doesn't understand Iran's regime
• 03/11/22: In the nuclear face-off with Iran, Biden just blinked
• 01/20/22: So, Trump is responsible for Iran's aggressive behavior?
• 01/18/22: THE SECRET'S OUT: Iran's economic resilience is mostly a mirage
• 01/07/22: Biden must hold Ethiopia's Abiy accountable
• 12/29/21: Fraying Saudi-UAE ties put U.S. objectives at risk
• 11/30/21: Iran demonstrates it isn't serious about nuclear talks
• 11/03/21: To negotiate with the Taliban, bring women to the table
• 10/11/21: Iraq's leader is betting on a hung parliament to retain power
• 09/27/21: A coup fails in Sudan but its fragile democracy remains at risk
• 09/13/21: The Taliban caretakers will keep the neighbors up
• 08/30/21: Trusting the Taliban to fight Islamic State
• 08/23/21: What will the Taliban do with a $22 billion economy?
• 07/28/21: The first and now the last best hope of the Arab Spring is at risk
• 07/15/21: No joy for Iran over the Taliban romp next door
• 07/07/21: Why Macron and Erdogan are suddenly playing nice
• 06/17/21: Iran's election is all about Supreme Leader's toxic legacy
• 08/17/20: Macron's muscle-flexing will make Mediterranean tensions worse
• 08/06/20: Beirut explosions create a dilemma for the world
• 06/25/20: Egypt's el-Sissi suffers a stunning reversal of fortunes
• 05/05/20: The Saudis' defacto leader is stuck exactly where Trump wants him
• 04/20/20: Trump is right to block IMF aid for Iran
• 02/17/20: Algeria wants a role in Libya that it can't afford
• 02/06/20: Iraq's new prime minister may not last long
• 01/27/20: Libya deal is a gentleman's bargain between rogues
• 01/20/20: Europe's lack of resolve is revealing --- to Iran
• 01/14/20: Iran isn't facing a 'Chernobyl moment'