http://www.jewishworldreview.com | (KRT) Like the swallows to Capistrano or another subpar Rolling Stones album, some things are just inevitable: And so we have another Battle For The Soul Of The Democratic Party.
These days, it seems, centrists and liberals are aiming their rhetorical guns at each other as much as they are at President Bush as the 2004 presidential election draws closer.
With Bush's poll numbers sagging for the first time since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, many Democrats see the popular president as vulnerable. They point to the continuing weak economy, questions over the intelligence leading to the war in Iraq, and the messiness of the war's aftermath as evidence that Bush can be beaten.
But first, Democrats have to figure out their strategy.
One school of thought - best represented by Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut - counsels following the centrist path that Bill Clinton took to two terms in the White House after the Democrats spent years out of power.
Others, led by former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, respond this way: Nuts!
They're angry at Bush, his policies and at other Democrats they say have tiptoed around Bush, fearful of his popularity, rather than aggressively taking him on. It's that go-along-and-get-along timidity, they say, that contributed to Democratic losses in the 2002 midterm elections.
Lieberman views that attitude the way a patient father might regard a wayward teenage son: Not angry, just disappointed. And very, very concerned that the son is messing up his future.
"If George Bush and his bankrupt ideology are part of the problem, believe me, old Democratic policies like higher taxes and weakness on defense are not the solution," Lieberman said in his trademark dolorous voice at a Washington speech Monday. "We need to reclaim the vital center. That is the way for Democrats to earn the opportunity to govern again."
Lieberman was the Democrats' 2000 vice-presidential candidate and leads many national polls for 2004. But his candidacy has yet to excite the party activists that usually pick the nominee, and his fund raising has been below expectations. In many key states, polls have him mired in third or fourth place.
Lieberman tried to claim the Clinton mantle Monday, calling himself a New Democrat who wants to "move forward with new ideas that can put us on the road to security, prosperity and victory."
He clearly singled out Dean and Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri, two of his prime opponents in the race for the Democratic nomination, as bad medicine for anxious Democrats.
He faulted Gephardt's health-care plan as "a break-the-bank $2 trillion program" that would leave no money for other programs. He said Gephardt's opposition to free trade would "raise the walls of protectionism again. ... We need more markets, not fewer."
Noting Dean's opposition to the war in Iraq and calls to repeal all of Bush's tax cuts, Lieberman said Dean likely would "lead the Democratic Party into the political wilderness for a long time to come. It would be, really, a ticket to nowhere."
Nevertheless, Dean remains the "it" candidate among Democratic activists and the media.
The most recent polls show Dean leading in Iowa and New Hampshire, two key early states. His fund raising, traditionally the weak spot of any outsider candidate, is soaring. Another boon to his on-fire campaign came when he made the cover of Time and Newsweek magazines this week.
Dean spokeswoman Tricia Enright said Lieberman presented "a false choice" in his speech.
"Governor Dean believes this is about standing up to George Bush and bringing people back into the process," Enright said. "That's the only way this party can be strong enough to defeat George Bush. We need to bring more people in, not turn people away."
Dean questions whether the liberal label applies to him, noting his record of balancing Vermont's budgets, his support for gun rights, and his broadening support.
"We're going to say to the people who voted for Ralph Nader, `Look, in me you get somebody who says what they think. I won't agree with you all the time, but you'll know exactly what I believe and what I think,' " Dean said Tuesday on NBC's "Today" show. "And the same is true with people who voted for John McCain and Ross Perot. We're seeing all those different types of people ... coming to our camp."
Such an intramural spat isn't unusual for Democrats; it's why humorist Will Rogers once joked he didn't belong to an organized political party: "I'm a Democrat."
Al Gore and Bill Bradley had a similar debate in 2000. It happened in 1992, with the centrist Clinton forces winning the day - and the election.
Observers are split about the meaning of today's in-house Democratic tussle.
Republicans are pleased with a fractured opposition. The White House's preferred candidate became clear last month when Bush strategist Karl Rove, visiting New Hampshire and spotting a Dean parade, cheered for the insurgent: "Heh, heh, heh. That's the one we want."
The intramural fracas could actually help Democrats in the long run, said Jennifer Duffy, an analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
"It's engaging party members in a way they need to be engaged," Duffy said. "If they're having the argument, that means they're talking about it. As opposed to being totally disengaged and convinced Bush can't be beaten. They have a reason to go vote."
In that context, Lieberman's speech could be seen as a wake-up call to moderates who don't traditionally get worked up for the primaries but fear the effect a Dean nomination could have on the party, Duffy said.
University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato said despite the ongoing disagreements between wings of the Democratic party, substantive differences are tough to find among the nine presidential candidates. It's just that Dean and his opposition to the war in Iraq helped separate him from the others. And with so many alternatives to Dean, not one has emerged as the best alternative.
"The non-Dean candidates are all trying to become the un-Dean," Sabato said.
In truth, many said, any one of the top-tier Democratic candidates - including Dean - could beat Bush if on Election Day the economy and Iraq are both a mess.
Any one of them could be wiped out by Bush if the economy and Iraq are steady.
"This is really a battle about 2008," Sabato said. "Centrists are trying to position themselves to pick up the pieces if Dean is the nominee and he loses badly."
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