Reality catches up with Biden

All presidents make sincere efforts to implement the detailed programs they advocate in their campaigns. Most succeed at least to some degree.

But they all eventually encounter resistance, and, when they do, it’s usually because of reality catching up with their hopes. That’s happening to Joe Biden this year, and his difficulty in coping with it explains why so many Americans see this as a floundering presidency.

Biden got off to a strong start last year and succeeded in passing two major pieces of legislation -- the American Rescue Plan Act and the bipartisan infrastructure bill -- which helped spur the economic recovery. He implemented an extensive anti-COVID vaccination program that helped curb the pandemic, restored some balance to the federal court system and reset the government’s image at home and abroad.

But he also encountered some high-profile failures on key issues like voting rights and criminal justice. And now, events at home and abroad are forcing Biden to modify or reverse other aspects of his initial agenda, raising questions about his failure to anticipate potential problems and giving an impression of uncertain leadership.

Here are some examples:

• COVID Policy. From the outset, Biden vowed to “follow the science” in fighting the pandemic. But he sometimes seems to be following the politics. When a federal judge last week overturned the administration’s requirement for masks on public transportation, his administration, not for the first time, sent mixed messages.

Officials said they would appeal the order and travelers should keep wearing masks. But when Biden was asked what travelers should do, he said, “That’s up to them.” Many companies promptly revoked their mask requirements. At the CDC’s behest, the administration appealed the order, presumably because of the threat to its authority, but it also seems ready to let it expire May 3.

• Diminishing Fossil Fuels. While not embracing progressives’ “Green New Deal,” the administration said climate change requires a transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy sources. It revoked a permit for the Keystone XL Pipeline, froze new oil and gas leasing on federal lands and sought wider use of electric cars.

But the Russian invasion of Ukraine produced a drop in overseas oil production that led to a spike in domestic gas prices. Now, the administration is encouraging new domestic production by increasing fees on inactive wells and reopening new leasing on federal lands, while insisting it has not abandoned its green energy goals.

• Afghanistan Withdrawal. Before the administration formally implemented its pledge to end the two-decade U.S. involvement in Afghanistan, that goal enjoyed widespread public support. But its mishandling of the actual pullout raised doubts at home about its competence and questions abroad about its international intentions.

In part, that was inevitable, since a neat withdrawal was probably impossible. But the administration undoubtedly misread some of the situation’s realities in hopes of a quick, easy solution.

• Underplaying Inflation. While seeking congressional support for proposals to spur the recovery from the pandemic, officials ignored inflation warnings from some economists, notably former Clinton administration Treasury Secretary Larry Summers. They said the massive government spending risked adding to the inflationary pressures from the pandemic’s global impact.

Those warnings proved prescient. Public support of the administration’s success in lowering unemployment to the 3.6 percent pre-pandemic level has been more than offset by the negative impact of the highest inflation rate in 40 years.

• Build Back Better Miscalculations. Administration officials and their congressional allies believed that, despite tiny majorities in the House and Senate, they could pass all three major pieces of their economic program – the rescue act, the infrastructure bill and the Build Back Better package of $3.5 trillion in expanded social and environmental programs. They downplayed the difficulties posed by internal party strains.

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They also ignored the impact of soaring inflation, Biden’s falling approval numbers, and the stated concerns of two key Democratic senators. By the time it passed the House last November, the political and economic climate made Senate passage impossible, though the White House still hopes to rescue parts of the measure.

• Immigration Failures. The administration came into office hoping it could scrap the Trump administration’s most onerous family-dividing policies, replace its wall, gain greater cooperation from Central American countries, implement a fairer system of processing migrants and still control the flow of those entering illegally.

While it has done some of the former, it has failed utterly with the latter as the mere signal of a more lenient policy spurred a dramatic increase in the number of illegal crossings.

Exemplifying the administration’s dilemma is the current debate over lifting Title 42, employed by the Trump administration to ban entrants on public health grounds during the pandemic. The administration said it would lift the order on May 23, but that provoked heated bipartisan opposition from lawmakers, including Democratic candidates who fear it would lead to another spike in illegal arrivals.

• The Ukraine War. The administration hoped that publicizing plans by Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine might discourage the Russian president from acting. Though that failed, Biden succeeded in mobilizing Western support to help Ukraine while vowing to keep the United States out of the war. But he has increased U.S. military support for the Ukrainians while still insisting the United States won’t become directly involved.

But reality may yet overcome that hope, just as it has forced the administration to change or reconsider so many other policies.

Carl P. Leubsdorf
The Dallas Morning News (TNS)

Carl P. Leubsdorf is the former Washington bureau chief of the Dallas Morning News.

Previously:
• 03/03/22 Kamala missed her chance
• 03/03/22 Did Biden really make his case?
• 02/25/22 A very different Europe faces this Russian aggression
• 02/10/22 Western 'support' also makes Ukraine nervous
• 12/09/21 Dole had respect for his rivals
• 08/18/21 Afghanistan's rapid fall casts cloud over Biden's entire administration
• 07/06/20 Things get complicated quickly for Biden
• 06/17/20: Government gridlock also on the ballot in 2020
• 04/24/20: Congress unprepared if disaster hits it
• 11/18/19: Buttigieg gains steam in Iowa. Why he's still a bad bet
• 03/01/18: How one keystone state congressional race could topple Nancy Pelosi
• 08/31/15: Ineffective Jeb Bush now faces NH challenge from Kasich
• 03/24/14: 7 obstacles Ted Cruz must overcome
• 12/15/14: Hillary sizes up her challenge in 2016