Western 'support' also makes Ukraine nervous

With more than 100,000 Russian troops on their border, Ukrainians are nervous, and that's hardly surprising.

After all, this is not the first time Russian President Vladimir Putin has talked of trying to annex his neighboring republic. And his position that Ukraine should be under Russian control represents a consistent thread dating back to the country's pre-20th century czarist rulers.

But it's not only the Russians who make Ukraine nervous. So do the sometimes schizophrenic stances of the West. Statements of support from European and North American countries for Ukraine's integrity have often been stronger than their actions.

At present, President Joe Biden appears to have forged substantial Western unity.

"We are absolutely united," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told a joint news conference with President Biden on Monday, adding that "all the necessary steps will be taken by all of us together." But the German chancellor was less specific than Biden, and none of the allies is sending troops to Ukraine, leaving some ambiguity over how far the West is willing to go in retaliating against any Russian invasion.

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Though the words this time seem stronger, such ambivalence is nothing new. Over the years, American presidents have taken a variety of stances ranging from behind-the-scenes talks during the two Bush presidencies of making Ukraine a NATO member to support for the Russian argument the country ought to rejoin a greater Russia, as during the Soviet Union's 20th century heyday.

Putin's desire of bringing his Ukrainian neighbors back under the Russian rubric evokes memories of the time an American president went to Kyiv to back the similar policy of another Russian leader.

Three decades ago, I was in the country's parliament, covering a visit by President George H.W. Bush when he urged Ukrainian support for Mikhail Gorbachev's attempt to maintain the old Soviet Union. He said that the then-Soviet president's reformist policies "point toward the goals of freedom, democracy and economic liberty" and warned the Ukrainians against "pursuing the hopeless course of isolation," condemning what he called "suicidal nationalism."

Gorbachev's efforts soon collapsed as internal economic and nationalistic strains undercut his effort to maintain even a weakened Soviet federation. Ukraine became independent and, within six months, Bush reversed course from what columnist William Safire dubbed his "chicken Kiev" speech

Ever since, the United States has backed Ukraine's independence. But at times there have been questions over what American — and Western -- support means.

In 2008, President George W. Bush pushed to include two former Soviet republics, Ukraine and Georgia, in NATO. That would have obligated the United States to defend them against any Russian attack. But the idea was dropped when Germany and France resisted.

When Russia invaded the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea in 2014, President Barack Obama led the West in united condemnation. Russia was expelled from the high-profile annual sessions of the Group of Eight industrial democracies.

However, Obama did nothing tangible to reverse the Russian action, and withheld lethal military aid to the chagrin of some Republican critics.

In the current crisis, Biden has stressed "our united approach" and says Putin "never has seen sanctions like the ones I promised will be imposed" if he moves against Ukraine. However, a Republican split has slowed congressional agreement on a sanctions package.

The United States has moved 3,000 troops into neighboring eastern Europe nations and the British are also sending troops.

But the major allied response will be economic, and Biden sought to eliminate one uncertainty Monday by saying the steps will include halting the flow of Russian natural gas by stopping the nearly completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Scholz, less specific, did not dispute that but never referred directly to the project, saying only "we will take all the necessary steps."

In fact, stopping the pipeline from opening may have a limited impact on Germany and other European nation, according to IHS Markit, a prominent analytical firm. It noted that supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine have already dropped to half the level of a year ago, replaced by U.S. LNG (liquid natural gas) from Texas and Louisiana.

Meanwhile, some Europeans continue to worry about the overall long-term U.S. commitment, citing not only Trump's statements but Biden's decision to withdraw the last American troops from Afghanistan.

Ironically, one of Putin's questionable explanations for threatening Ukraine is Western refusal to rule out extending NATO membership to the former Soviet republic. Though eastern European countries like Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic joined the U.S.-led alliance, NATO has no current plans to add Ukraine.

More likely, Putin is motivated by a combination of internal pressures from his country's weak economy and the inherent Russian fear of having unfriendly neighbors.

But he may also feel he can get away with something because of what he perceives as the likely response from the West.

Carl P. Leubsdorf
The Dallas Morning News (TNS)

Carl P. Leubsdorf is the former Washington bureau chief of the Dallas Morning News.

Previously:
• 12/09/21 Dole had respect for his rivals
• 08/18/21 Afghanistan's rapid fall casts cloud over Biden's entire administration
• 07/06/20 Things get complicated quickly for Biden
• 06/17/20: Government gridlock also on the ballot in 2020
• 04/24/20: Congress unprepared if disaster hits it
• 11/18/19: Buttigieg gains steam in Iowa. Why he's still a bad bet
• 03/01/18: How one keystone state congressional race could topple Nancy Pelosi
• 08/31/15: Ineffective Jeb Bush now faces NH challenge from Kasich
• 03/24/14: 7 obstacles Ted Cruz must overcome
• 12/15/14: Hillary sizes up her challenge in 2016