Three Top Dems. Abaca Press
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Whoever cobbled together the debate schedule did so with a nod to historical irony. The sixth and final gathering of Democratic presidential hopefuls in 2019 occurred on December 19. That's the same day, in 1776, that Thomas Paine published The American Crisis, attempting to breathe new life into a floundering American Revolution.
If you haven't read Mr. Paine's words, you're probably at least familiar with parts of this passage:
"These are the times that try men's souls; the summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of his country; but he that stands it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph."
How does this apply to the closing days of 2019?
Simple: December has shaped up as a time that's trying Democrats' souls.
That would include:
After the better part of three months of controlling the impeachment narrative, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi Nancy and her majority colleagues have succeeded in: (a) slightly improving Trump's approval numbers; and (b) driving impeachment's popularity underwater (that's per the Real Clear Politics Average).
Once trailing his Democratic rivals in many and most hypothetical 2020 matchups, the numbers have flipped.
Trump's now ahead in at least three key battleground grounds: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (individual polls will vary, but the trend is noticeable).
The latest Democrat hopeful "having a moment" in the February primary states? Maybe the most unelectable of the four in the field's top tier: Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. He's surged ahead in Iowa; it's not a stretch to see Sanders carrying the first three contests — Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada — making him very hard to derail, as the frontrunner, in March and beyond.
Meanwhile, all but three of 30 House Democrats representing districts that voted for Trump in 2016 — there were 31 before New Jersey Rep. Jeff Van Drew switched parties — will spend their holiday recess explaining how impeachment fits into their 2018 promises of going to Washington and not getting ensnared in partisan shenanigans.
Trying times indeed.
Getting back to Thomas Paine and December 1776: his words came at a time of great uncertainty for a revolution struggling in its sophomore year. George Washington's troops were encamped across the river from Trenton, having been drubbed by British forces during the summer. During the fall, American volunteers began to lay down their arms and return to their homes. Washington was keenly aware that, with his troops' service contracts set to expire at year's end, 1777 could see him without an army to command.
As for Paine, the pamphleteer knew that the average colonist wouldn't support a revolution merely for the sport of it. So he used his word in an attempt to raise the cause to a higher level a holy war, as he spun it, with the idea that religious freedom was at stake what with the British amassing power belonging to the Almighty ("God almighty will not give up a people to military destruction, or leave them unsupportedly to perish, who had so earnestly and so repeatedly sought to avoid the calamities of war, by every decent method which wisdom could invent").
A homework assignment for Democrats wordsmiths and message-crafters over the holiday: figure how to re-frame Trump's impeachment and the rationale for his defeat next November as part of a higher and nobler cause, just as Paine promoted the revolution 243 years ago.
An example of how not to do this: this email from Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren's presidential campaign, sent just moments after the House voted to impeach Trump.
The email began:
"I took an oath to uphold the Constitution of the United States, and so did my colleagues in the Senate and in the House. And we owe it to the American people to do our jobs and get to the bottom of this.
Come the new year, I will be a juror in Donald Trump's Senate trial, and I'll uphold my oath. Because nobody is above the law — not even the president of the United States."
Fine — even if, technically, Trump wasn't accused of a crime.
But then Team Warren overdid it . . .
"[I]t's important to remember that Trump is just the worst symptom — not the cause — of a rigged, corrupt system. A system that rewards the rich and powerful and leaves working people behind.
2020 is our chance to change that. Our chance to take back the reins of our democracy and put political and economic power in the hands of working people. We're up against big problems, and we need big ideas to solve them. That's what we're fighting for."
The problem with this approach: each Democratic candidate can spin impeachment their selfish way — thus Warren will pitch it as part of her greater jihad against wealth; Joe Biden will take credit for Trump's Ukraine obsession; Sanders could somehow tie it to the need for socialized medicine; New Jersey Sen. Cork Booker, who didn't make the Los Angeles debate cut, could link it to slavery reparations.
Is there a Thomas Paine in today's Democratic Party capable of issuing a wake-up call that elevates the party's cause in 2020 to something more compelling than resisting and abasing Trump?
The last three Democrats to oust an incumbent Republican president had that gift. Bill Clinton, disciplined and at times lucky, tied the 1992 election to empathy and America's domestic lethargy. In 1976, Jimmy Carter emerged from a large field promising to restore integrity to government. Forty-four years prior to that, Franklin Roosevelt offered "a new deal for the American people."
You'll note that those three Democrats ran and won in times of economic and/or societal angst. The former doesn't apply to this election — not at this point, anyway, with more Americans approving of Trump's handling of the economy than they did pre-impeachment.
As for societal angst, the most recent YouGov/Economist survey has the "right track/wrong track" question at 35% positive and 54% negative. That's reflects mindsets: 76% of Trump 2016 voters think times are better; 90% of Clinton 2016 believe times are worse.
In January 2017, the same survey had "right track/wrong track" at 24% positive and 57% negative. What's changed in almost three years? Republicans feel better (75% "right track" now vs. 24% then), while Democrats are dourer (85% "wrong track" now vs. 61% then).
And independents? In January 2017, they weighed in at 20% "right track" and 55% "wrong track." The most recent numbers: 31% "right" and 52% "wrong." What that suggests: to win over the middle, Democrats needs to find something more catchy than the obligatory "are you better off than you were four years ago?" message.
And if Democrats don't step up their game?
The party out of power could be in four more years of pain — without the "e."
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