Bye, Bye, Bibi?

The prospect of a snap Israeli general election has faded for the moment, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's governing coalition surviving the sudden departure of a key ally. But whenever the actual vote takes place-by law, it must be before next November 5-campaign season is already under way, and opposition parties are stepping up attacks on Netanyahu.

To a prime minister seeking a fourth consecutive term (he also served for three years in the late nineties) most of the lines of attack will be familiar, even formulaic: critics point to his hardline nationalism, his cynical political deal-making, his tendency to demagoguery. But this time, there's is something new, and specific: Israeli police are accusing Netanyahu of corruption, and the attorney general is in the process of determining whether to prosecute him.

Many of Netanyahu's critics see this as golden opportunity to bring him down. But I think they are too optimistic. For one thing, the prime minister is popular, more so than any of his key rivals. For another, it is not certain that he will be indicted before the election. And finally, even if he is, that may not stop him from running-and winning.

Despite his long tenure, most Israelis aren't yet tired of Netanyahu. He has presided over a decade of prosperity, international acceptance, and relative peace. Many voters who dislike the prime minister will be reluctant to put their security and prosperity in untried hands. The polls show that, all things being equal, he will keep his job, for the simple reason that he is good at it.

Of course, all things may not be equal this time. The police have handed the Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit a recommendation to try Netanyahu in three separate corruption cases. Mandelblit is a Netanyahu appointee, but he is also reputed to be an honest man, and he won't want to be accused of favoritism. But these are complicated cases, and he will take his time to decide. If Netanyahu calls elections early in 2019, there's a chance Israelis will vote before the attorney general has made up his mind.

Netanyahu's rivals may treat that as a mere formality: after all, the charges are already out there. In the first case, the prime minister is accused of improperly accepting expensive gifts from wealthy donors. In two other cases, he is alleged to have traded government favors to local media moguls in return for improved coverage of himself and his family.

So, the focus of the opposition campaign will likely be: "Bibi is a crook!" The prime minister will fight back with both a legal rebuttal ("I'm the innocent victim of police persecution") and a political one ("My experience makes me the only candidate who knows how to keep Israel safe and prosperous"). He will also point out that the main contenders for his job are inexperienced in defense, diplomacy and coalition management, all critical areas of expertise for an Israeli prime minister.

I don't know if Bibi is a crook. I do know that he is right in his dismissive evaluation of the competition. His main challenge will come from two center-left candidates. Avi Gabby, leader of the Zionist Union (aka Labor Party) is a businessman with almost no public record and even less charisma. Yair Lapid, who heads the Yesh Atid party, is an attractive, articulate former TV host, but he is not as good as his packaging. In 2013, he joined a Netanyahu-led coalition as finance minister. His performance was so uninspired that, in the subsequent election, he lost a third of his votes.

Neither opposition party can beat Netanyahu's Likud one-on-one. Political circles are buzzing about the possibility of a center-left bloc, which would also include one or two ex-generals with political aspirations. There is always buzz like this ahead of elections, but it rarely goes anywhere. The leaders of the bloc shake hands on a deal, then immediately quarrel over which party gets to call the shots. And newly recruited ex-generals tend to lose their luster when the voters get a good look at them out of uniform.

What if the attorney general does chose to indict Netanyahu before he calls an election? The law doesn't prevent an indicted candidate from running for prime minister, and-this is, admittedly, untested legal territory-there appears to be no legal ban against an indicted prime minister running the government.

If a criminal case does come to the Jerusalem district court during Bibi's term, it will likely be wrapped in constitutional and public controversy that could last for years. If convicted, he could appeal to the Supreme Court, which would take even longer. (He has already hired a new team of lawyers and is building a multi-million dollar legal defense fund.) And all that time he could probably continue as prime minister.

The Israeli judiciary is admirably independent. In recent years it has sent to jail a former prime minister, Ehud Olmert, a former president, Moshe Katsav, and a veritable rouges gallery of senior government ministers-even a chief rabbi. But due process requires time and patience. The Olmert case dragged through the courts for almost eight years, the Katzav case for five.

In the meantime, only a Knesset majority can force the prime minister to resign. This has never happened before. Given Israel's fractious parliament, Netanyahu's loyal core of support, and his skill at manipulating public opinion, it is difficult to imagine such an outcome. All of this means the prime minister has little to worry about the corruption charges.

(COMMENT, BELOW)

Previously:
• 10/22/18: Why Netanyahu called off a war in Gaza
• 07/23/18: We can -- and should -- drink to that: Pepsico's buying SodaStream sends a resounding message
• 08/08/18: Israel's Left bit Bibi's bait --- yet again
• 07/23/18: Why Israel got the biggest win from Helsinki
• 06/27/18: Trump's new deal for the Middle East
• 06/04/18: Israel's Golan annexation deserves US recognition
• 04/20/18: Israel's survival through iron will and an iron wall
• 04/03/18: Israeli voters help Netanyahu defuse ethics inquiry
• 02/28/18: How Billy Graham made Israel kosher to evangelicals
• 02/07/18: Israel's immigration crisis is a lesson for Trump
• 01/29/18: What Pence's 'worthless' trip reveals
• 11/27/17: Look to Israel for a playbook on dealing with North Korea
• 11/27/17: Why Israel will dictate any terms of a 'peace deal'. And why the 'Palestinians' will have no choice but to accept them

Chafets is a journalist and author of 14 books. He was a senior aide to Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin and the founding managing editor of the Jerusalem Report Magazine.