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The 2018 midterms are balanced on a razor's edge. Nobody can feel any level of confidence about predicting the outcome. But the economy is showing all the positive signs possible, and Rasmussen Reports, the most reliable polling firm, has Trump's approval at 51 percent, the highest it has ever been.
On the Senate side, there are four Republican seats that were thought to be in danger. Texas (Republican Sen. Ted Cruz) and Tennessee (Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn) look not to be in danger any longer. But Arizona (Republican Rep. Martha McSally) and Nevada (Republican Sen. Dean Heller) are both iffy. McSally has trailed in recent polling but bounced ahead in the latest poll. It's the opposite with Heller. He led in a series of polls but has fallen behind in the latest one.
On the take-away side, we appear to be headed toward a victory in North Dakota (Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer). Missouri (Republican Attorney General of Missouri Josh Hawley) is in play, with no telling what will happen. In Indiana (Republican Mike Braun), we trailed, then we led, and now we trail again. In Florida (Republican Gov. Rick Scott), we have been consistently 1 to 2 points behind, but our own pollsters assure us we are winning.
For the Senate, likely one give-away (Nevada or Arizona) and two take-aways (North Dakota and Missouri) for a net gain of one seat or 52-48.
For the House, who knows? There are 20 races that are within a 2-point margin, all within the margin of error. Decided races have a slight Democratic lead (203-196), but both parties' decided races are far from the 218 majority. Trend lines were favorable in the first three weeks of October, but unfavorable in the past week. The white powder mailings and the Pittsburgh murders have hurt Trump. But those have faded, and no trend is now discernible.
The economy is roaring. 250,000 jobs were created last month. All unemployment — total, black, Latino, women, young — is at a record low. Real household income (adjusted for inflation) has risen to new heights — by over $2,000 so far this year, passing the previous high of 1998.
So hold your breath and cross your fingers. Better yet, use them both to dial and speak to your friends. Turnout is everything now.
(COMMENT, BELOW)
Dick Morris, who served as adviser to former Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and former President Clinton, is the author of 16 books, including his latest, Screwed and Here Come the Black Helicopters.