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(All data from Real Clear Politics)
This election is coming down to Colorado if the tracking polling is to be believed and Colorado is coming out for Trump! While the RealClearPolitics.com average shows Clinton 1.7% ahead, in Colorado, the most recent poll, from the University of Denver, has the race tied.
And the actual vote, so far is pro-Trump. The state has enacted all-mail voting for the first time and about 34% of eligible voters have already cast ballots. Here’s the breakout:
• Democrats: 508,000
• Republicans: 494,000
• Independents: 383,000
National polls suggest that while Trump is carrying Republicans and Hillary is carrying Democrats by a similar margin, Donald is about 12 points ahead among Independents (Fox News poll of November 1st). That would put Trump ahead of Hillary by 25,000 votes in the key swing state!
Here’s why Colorado matters so much:
State-by-state polling suggests that Donald Trump could expect to win 265 of the 270 votes he needs to win. And he is within spitting distance of the rest.
Trump now leads in all of the states that Romney carried except in North Carolina. In the Tar Heel state, with 15 electoral votes, the race is tied according to Real Clear Politics, but the trend data is in Trump’s direction. If he carries North Carolina, he would start with the 206 votes Romney got.
Add to that Ohio (18) where Trump is 3.3 ahead, Florida (29) where he leads by 0.9, Iowa (6) where Trump is 1.4 ahead, and Nevada (6) where he leads by 2.0. Together these states would put Trump at 265 electoral votes.
To get the remaining 5 electoral votes, all eyes need to focus on Colorado with its 8 electoral votes. And Trump appears to be winning there.
And the other 5 he needs to win could come from the following states:
Also possible Trump states are New Hampshire (4) where Hillary leads by 3.3, Pennsylvania (20) which now backs Hillary by 3.4.
More problematic, but still possible, are Virginia (13) where Hillary is nursing a 4.7% lead, Michigan (16) that Clinton leads by 5.7%, and Wisconsin (10) where Hillary is 5.4% ahead.
The trends are for Trump, but he’s not there yet.
Dick Morris, who served as adviser to former Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and former President Clinton, is the author of 16 books, including his latest, Screwed and Here Come the Black Helicopters.