Trump seduces the press but not his party

Yes, Donald Trump is good at grabbing media attention. But, no, this doesn't mean that the political system has changed and that candidates from now on will simply say whatever pops into their minds, regardless of what their party thinks.

Most political scientists believe that Trump's polling success -- which began in June and peaked in early September -- reflects his domination of the media. When Republican voters were hearing plenty about Trump, and little about the other candidates, they told pollsters they would vote for him. Trump is still receiving the most attention. But most voters aren't paying close attention yet, and therefore are unfamiliar with the rest of the candidates.

Kevin Drum at Mother Jones argues that the real-estate mogul's manipulation of the press is innovative. Trump is willing to say things that more traditional candidates would regard as outrageous and politically suicidal, and journalists gobble up these statements.

Drum explains: "The difference is that most presidential candidates in the past figured they had to act at least nominally presidential if they didn't want to end up as ignored as Alan Keyes. But apparently the political media has changed. Reporters and editors are now as eager as any gossip show to cover obvious buffoonery, and both Trump and Ben Carson have ridden that wave."

I suspect that's mostly wrong. The constraint in the past wasn't that the media wouldn't cover the off-kilter pronouncements of presidential candidates. It was that the contenders themselves would not make these comments. They wanted to please their parties, which would not nominate people who were not considered serious.

So are the old constraints now gone? Can candidates say whatever they want and be rewarded for it? There are three possible answers:

1. The parties are willing to nominate people they previously would have rejected.

2. Candidates can go around the parties and win a presidential nomination if their outlandish statements maximize press attention.

3. Carson and Trump are pursuing a losing strategy.

The first of these possibilities has not proved to be correct: Party actors have not rallied to Trump and Carson, despite their strong polling numbers. It's still possible, though extremely unlikely, that going around the parties will work. We've never seen anything quite like Trump in nomination politics before. On the other hand, we have seen plenty of candidates with strong early poll showings but little party support fizzle once voters started paying attention. Name recognition eventually won't matter as much either when the GOP rivals become better known. We'll just have to see.

Meanwhile, my money is on No. 3.

Comment by clicking here.

Jonathan Bernstein, a politicial scientist and author, is a Bloomberg View columnist.

Previously:

• 11/09/15: Can Ben Carson really be a Barry Goldwater?
• 11/05/15: Why Rubio is most likely Republican nominee
• 10/28/15: Boehner tries to give Ryan a clean slate
• 10/26/15: What Carson's Iowa surge doesn't mean
• 10/21/15: Seriously, Trump will not become president
• 10/19/15: Political parties are changing, not dying
• 08/17/15: Trump's bid could end in one of three ways
• 08/04/15: Joe Biden boomlet is over before it starts
• 08/03/15: How to know when John Boehner is in trouble
• 07/14/15: Scott Walker tests tea party's seriousness
• 07/01/15: Chris Christie, king of the 2016 long shots
• 06/23/15: The next step if Obamacare loses in court
• 06/16/15: Jeb Bush and the Endless Campaign
• 06/15/15: Jeb Bush won't win if he's the safe choice
• 06/04/15: Why candidates are snubbing Iowa Straw Poll
• 06/03/15: Graham tests his luck in Republican primary
• 06/01/15: George Pataki has a pro-choice problem
• 05/28/15: Republicans may be forced to save Obamacare
• 05/06/15: Mike Huckabee will make history, win or lose
• 05/05/15: Why Hillary needs Sanders
• 02/25/15: Scott Walker isn't ceding party cash to Bush
• 02/23/15: How the Kochs wasted a fortune on campaigns
• 02/16/15: Why candidates can lie, but reporters can't
• 02/09/15: Don't mess with . . . Iowa --- as first caucus state
• 02/06/15: Biggest threat to Rand Paul in 2016?
• 02/04/15: Christie's measles vaccine madness explained
• 02/02/15: Two takeaways from Romney's latest
• 01/20/15: Ernst draws short straw with Obama response
• 01/16/15: Romney is the only one who thinks he's Reagan
• 01/13/15: How GOP underdogs could very well take on their establishment