Donald Trump's path to victory

If you aren't seriously contemplating the biggest black-swan event in American electoral history, you aren't paying attention.

Fifteen months ago, Donald Trump was a reality-TV star with a spotty business record and a weird penchant for proclaiming he was on the verge of running for president. Now, he's perhaps a few big breaks and a couple of sterling debate performances away from being elected 45th president of the United States.

Trump has no experience in elected office and, unlike past nonpoliticians elected president, hasn't won a major war. He barely has a national campaign. He perhaps knows less about public affairs than the average congressman. He has repeatedly advertised his thin-skinned vindictiveness and is trampling on basic political norms, like the convention of candidates releasing their tax returns.

No major party has ever nominated anyone like this. If Trump were to prevail, it would make Barack Obama's unlikely rise from unknown state senator to first African-American president in about four years look like a boringly conventional political trajectory.

Obama seemed to come out of nowhere, but his steps to the presidency - law degree, state office, US senator - were stereotypical. Trump won the GOP nomination despite - or because of? - attributes that would have seemed disqualifying two years ago, such as, to name a few, his personal life, his longtime support for Democrats, his newly minted, hard-to-credit social conservatism, his disdain for Republican orthodoxy and his basic lack of preparation.

Trump now has a legitimate shot at winning the general because he got the lucky draw of at least the second-worst presidential nominee in recent memory and, pending how she fares over the next two months, perhaps the worst.

All it took for Trump to wipe away most of Hillary's lead, built at an excellent convention and on Trump's subsequent weeks of self-inflicted wounds, was acting like a somewhat normal presidential candidate. Have a meeting with a foreign leader. Give policy speeches. Read from a teleprompter. Use his NPR voice when appropriate.

None of this required strategic genius, only a decision not to throw away the election with repeated episodes of self-indulgent stupidity.

Throw on top of that the string of Clinton Foundation stories, the FBI's document dump before Labor Day and Hillary's near-collapse at New York's 9/11 memorial, and the race may be headed toward a tie nationally.

Democrats should be feeling a creeping sense of panic:

They are trying to win with a candidate who is loathed and distrusted and has few redeeming qualities. As Yuval Levin, editor of National Affairs pointed out, corrupt and dishonest politicians are often entertaining, and dull politicians are usually earnest and honest. Hillary manages to be boring and corrupt.

No one can be certain that her health is what the campaign says it is. If Hillary did have a more serious condition than allergies and walking pneumonia, does anyone believe the Clintons would be forthright about it? Even if nothing else ails her, if Clinton has another episode in public like the one on Sept. 11, the bottom might fall out.

President Obama probably can't close Hillary's enthusiasm gap. For entirely understandable reasons (dull, inauthentic and old), the Obama coalition isn't excited by Clinton. When Obama hit the hustings, we were reminded of what an adept campaigner he is, but there is no evidence Obama ever successfully transferred enthusiasm for himself to another candidate.

If the kitchen sink hasn't killed off Trump, what else is there? The Clinton campaign has already used his greatest hits of most offensive statements in countless TV ads. I was appalled that Trump mocked a disabled reporter, but even I am sick of seeing the clip every other time I turn on the TV. If none of this has sunk Trump and the race gets even closer, what's left that is going to have a new and different shock value?

A compelling Trump debate performance could change perceptions of his suitability to be commander in chief. Hillary is trouncing Trump on this attribute by a 2-to-1 margin in the Washington Post/ABC poll. If Trump shows up and seems plausible during the biggest moment of the campaign, he could vastly improve his standing on this basic readiness question.

All this said, Hillary still has an advantage. Presumably, she won't be as snake-bit the rest of the way. She has a campaign and Trump doesn't; that must count for something. Demographics favor her.

A Trump victory may not be likely, but it isn't far-fetched. And, no, stranger things haven't happened.

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