
What factors usually re-elect or throw out incumbent presidents?
The economy counts most.
Recessions, or at least chronic economic pessimism, sink incumbents. Presidents
The 2008 financial crisis likely ended any chance for
A once-unpopular incumbent
President
They hope that either the good times can't last forever or that Trump's trade war with
Unpopular optional wars are just as lethal to incumbents.
So far, Trump has been careful to avoid optional wars, nation-building and even so-called "police actions."
Scandals also can ruin re-election bids and second presidential terms.
The 22-month Mueller investigation of "collusion" and "obstruction" proved a big dud. So too were serial efforts by
Over the next 14 months, we may we see a quite different news cycle in which Trump's chief accusers --
Elections are not popularity contests. If they were, Trump might well lose handily, given that his approval ratings are consistently below 50 percent. Instead, they are choices between good and better -- or bad and worse -- candidates.
So far, the Democratic debates have been a great gift to Trump. The front-runners appear almost unhinged in promoting issues that that are not supported by a majority of Americans in polls. Those who sound moderate and centrist are either fading or, in the case of
Then there remain the known unknowns. Anything can happen before
Trump, our first president without either prior military or political experience, will remain a volatile candidate. He seems intent on replying to attacks without restraint through take-no-prisoners Twitter retorts, some of which turn off swing and suburban voters.
Yet no pundit has figured out whether Trump's Twitter storms are the key to revving up his base in swing states, and thus might earn him another
Finally, candidates have to campaign. Some, like supposed 2016 shoo-in
Trump will have lots more money this time around. And he will now act like a veteran on the stump.
Trump will turn 74 in 2020. But his near-animal energy belies his age. Some of his potential opponents -- Biden,
Add up all these factors, and a currently unpopular Trump will still likely be harder to beat than his confident media detractors and enraged progressive critics can imagine.
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Victor Davis Hanson is the Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow in Residence in Classics and Military History at the Hoover Institution, a professor of classics emeritus at California State University at Fresno, and a nationally syndicated columnist for Tribune Media Services.