There are a couple reasons the special counsel's expanding Russia investigation might be so interested in former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort that they showed up at his door before dawn, unannounced, searched his home and seized documents, as The Washington Post reports.
In many ways, Manafort is squarely in the crosshairs of the Russia-Trump collusion investigation: His brief tenure as the head of Trump's campaign happened as concerns about Russia's meddling in the 2016 election were heating up, he's got high-level connections to Russia in his own right, and he's got a whole host of scrutinized financial dealings that could make him a useful tool for investigators seeking cooperation.
Let me elaborate why the special counsel investigation could be so interested in him.
1. He was Trump's campaign chairman for several months in 2016. If Robert Mueller's team is investigating Trump-Russia connections, they're not going to stop at some low-level Trump associate. These investigators are going straight to the top to see if they find evidence of collusion, and for several key months in 2016, Manafort was the top.
2. He was in that meeting. When Donald Trump Jr. was told the Russian government was trying to help his father win, and oh by the way, do you want to meet with a Russian lawyer who has dirt on Hillary Clinton, Trump Jr. didn't go alone. He brought along Manafort and Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law.
It appears Manafort took detailed notes of that meeting, and those notes could be key evidence if there are any collusion-related charges.
That meeting's circumstances are "as close as you can get to a smoking gun" on whether the Trump campaign colluded with Russia, said Jeffrey Jacobovitz, a white-collar lawyer who represented officials in the Clinton White House.
3. He's got lots of ties to Russia. A Russian aluminum magnate. A pro-Russian former Ukrainian president. A Republican congressman who advocates for close ties between the United States and Russia. A business associate from his time in Ukraine who once served in the Russian army and had dinner with Manafort during the campaign.
Of all the Trump campaign officials, Manafort has the most known connections to Russia. Before he joined Trump's campaign, he was a political consultant in Ukraine, where he helped elect a president backed by Russia. (That president was toppled four years later and fled to safety in Russia.) The Post reported in June that Manafort's consulting firm received $17 million over two years from that president's political party, the Party of Regions.
During the campaign, The New York Times uncovered ledgers in Ukraine for secret, under-the-table payments to the Party of Regions' allies. Manafort's name was in them, though he denied any wrongdoing. The news eventually led to Manafort's resignation from Trump's campaign, three months after he got elevated to the top job.
4. Investigators could use him as leverage. Manafort's role in the Trump campaign isn't the only aspect of his life under federal investigation. The Wall Street Journal has reported the special counsel is investigating him for money laundering allegations. NBC has reported federal investigators have subpoenaed records related to a $3.5 million mortgage Manafort took out on his home in the Hamptons. And The Washington Post reports that Justice Department officials are also looking into whether he violated any laws by not fully disclosing his work as a foreign agent in Ukraine. (Manafort retroactively filed as one in June, which is how we know how much money he got paid by Ukrainian politicians.)
Much of that is now under Mueller's umbrella. That's significant leverage investigators have on Manafort. If they can't convince Manafort to cooperate on the Russia investigation - and this search warrant is evidence that they feel they couldn't - they could potentially force him to cooperate by threatening him with unrelated legal trouble. Manafort has not been, nor do we have any indication he will be, charged with a crime.
Snagging a big fish with an unrelated crime is a common tactic used by investigators, Jacobovitz said. It's possible the special counsel is using those same kinds of tools on Michael Flynn, Trump's former national security adviser, who is facing legal questions over his failure to disclose his lobbying work for Turkey.
Flynn has asked for immunity from Congress to testify to them about what he knows. Manafort has provided documents to multiple House and Senate committees and plans to testify sometime later this year. Now those documents are in the hands of the FBI.
Previously:
• 06/05/17 James Comey is jumping into the fire by testifying to Congress about Trump. What's in it for him?
• 05/18/17 About to quit Congress, Chaffetz suddenly becomes face of its Trump investigation
• 05/17/17 President Trump's defenders on Capitol Hill are wavering
• 05/10/17 Senate Republicans hold the key to what happens next with Trump and Russia. Here's an early rundown of where GOP senators stand
• 03/27/17 Trump's First 100 Days: What's next for Trump and Congress
• 03/27/17 Congressman resigns from Freedom Caucus after health-care drama
• 03/22/17 4 takeaways from Neil Gorsuch's highly politicized confirmation hearing
• 03/08/17 The three GOP factions that could doom Republicans' Obamacare replacement bill
• 02/01/17 DEM-olition: How party's antics may leave them losers, again
• 01/16/17 10 times Donald Trump's Cabinet picks directly disputed him
• 01/05/17 Senate Dems want to block Trump's Supreme Court pick. That may be riskier than they think
• 12/23/16 7 hugely important races for governor that GOPers must guard to cement their almost complete control of America
• 11/28/16 Why down-ballot Dems could be in the minority for years to come
• 11/21/16 10 things to know about Sen. Jeff Sessions, Donald Trump's pick for attorney general
• 11/09/16 Democrats are now basically extinct in the South
• 11/07/16 GOP appears poised to hang on to a near-record-high
• 09/29/16 In the 9th inning, Congress ends Obama's perfect veto game
• 09/27/16 Dems are still not favored to take back the House
• 09/09/16 A shortlist of economic issues in which a lib wouldn't feel guilty voting for Trump
• 07/28/16 Terry McAuliffe's TPP gaffe reinforces several narratives Hillary's been trying to dismiss
• 06/15/16 3 things Congress could do in response to the massacre in Orlando (And none involve guns)
• 06/14/16 Marco Rubio sure sounds like he might be prepared to run for reelection, after all
• 06/10/16 History suggests Donald Trump's big, beautiful border wall may not be so outlandish
• 05/26/16 What Bernie Sanders' new endorsements say about his future plans
• 05/11/16 Ted Cruz built a brand on being the most hated man in Washington. Now what?
• 04/20/16 Has Trump finally realized he can't just bulldoze his way to the White House?
• 03/28/16 Do House Dems have a shot at the majority this year?
• 03/14/16 Undersold: Trump would honor Obama's foreign deals (but make them better, of course)
• 02/22/16 The GOP's Supreme Court strategy is dicey. But its potential payoff is massive
• 02/11/16 Who is John Kasich? Five things you should know --- including how to pronounce 'Kasich'
• 12/21/15 Words of caution to temper Ryan's optimism