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March 28th, 2024

Insight

How to know when John Boehner is in trouble

Jonathan Bernstein

By Jonathan Bernstein

Published August 3, 2015

No, there's no serious revolt brewing among House Republicans against Speaker John Boehner, despite what appears to be an attempt by one backbencher — Mark Meadows of North Carolina — to oust him.

As I wrote recently, Boehner has been protected because the things that make him unpopular with party hardliners are unavoidable for any Republican speaker during divided government, no matter how conservative or combative that leader can claim to be. Any speaker who wants a bill passed has to make a deal with Barack Obama and avoid a filibuster by Democrats in the Senate.

So how can we tell which threats against Boehner are real, and which are just talk (or, as some House Republican conference members suggest, fund-raising stunts)?

That's easy. If the attacks come from the group of radicals who habitually vote against him for speaker every two years, then it's a stunt.

Real coup plotters don't go public until they have the votes. What they might do, however, is leak specific complaints, especially if their House leaders can do something about these grievances. (Those who moved against Newt Gingrich in 1998 — not radicals, but pragmatic conservatives — had specific objections to how the House was organized.)

Perhaps Meadows and his like-minded colleagues are playing to the voters out there who mistakenly believe that legislating is simply a matter of wanting something the most. In this fairy tale, Republicans haven't repealed Obamacare because they surrender too easily, not because they don't have the votes.

(Conservatives aren't the only ones who have these kinds of illusions; plenty of Democrats sincerely believe Obama could have signed single-payer health care into law if only he had wanted it.)

So if you want to take the temperature of House Republicans, don't pay attention to those who are always upset with the speaker. They aren't going to depose him. Keep your eye on mainstream conservatives, especially those who hold power in the institution (such as committee chairmen or members of the leadership). If they get upset, Boehner's days will be numbered. But for now, they appear to be happy with his leadership.

Jonathan Bernstein
Bloomberg News
(TNS)

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Jonathan Bernstein, as a politicial scientist and author, is a Bloomberg View columnist.


Previously:


07/14/15: Scott Walker tests tea party's seriousness
07/01/15: Chris Christie, king of the 2016 long shots
06/23/15: The next step if Obamacare loses in court
06/16/15: Jeb Bush and the Endless Campaign
06/15/15: Jeb Bush won't win if he's the safe choice
06/04/15: Why candidates are snubbing Iowa Straw Poll
06/03/15: Graham tests his luck in Republican primary
06/01/15: George Pataki has a pro-choice problem
05/28/15: Republicans may be forced to save Obamacare
05/06/15: Mike Huckabee will make history, win or lose
05/05/15: Why Hillary needs Sanders
02/25/15: Scott Walker isn't ceding party cash to Bush
02/23/15: How the Kochs wasted a fortune on campaigns
02/16/15: Why candidates can lie, but reporters can't
02/09/15: Don't mess with . . . Iowa --- as first caucus state
02/06/15: Biggest threat to Rand Paul in 2016?
02/04/15: Christie's measles vaccine madness explained
02/02/15: Two takeaways from Romney's latest
01/20/15: Ernst draws short straw with Obama response
01/16/15: Romney is the only one who thinks he's Reagan
01/13/15: How GOP underdogs could very well take on their establishment

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