Abortion Decision Has No Impact On GOP Chances In Fall Elections

Comparing the "generic ballot" question on media polls before and after the leak, the Republicans still seem to hold a decisive advantage. Asked which party they would support in the coming elections in their own districts, voters still indicate a preference for Republicans.

Of four media companies that polled right before and right after the decision leaked, three actually showed Republican gains while one showed a modest Democratic pick up of only one point.

CNN, for example, surveyed the electorate on May 3-5 and found that 49% said they would likely back the Republican in their district while 42% opted for the Democrat, a GOP margin of 7 points. This finding compares with a Republican edge of only 1 point in their previous poll on April 28-May 1, before the decision leaked.

Monmouth Poll showed similar results. On March 10-14, 2022, they had a tie in the generic ballot for Congress, but, by May 5-9, the GOP advantage had swelled to seven points.

A third polling firm, Politico, showed a Democratic edge on the generic ballot of two points in a post-leak survey on May 6-9, 2022 compared with a one point edge on April 22-25 before the leak.

A fourth poll, this one by UGov, showed a Democratic lead in the generic ballot fading from 5 points on April 16th to only 2 points on May 8-10.

Republicans think that the new abortion decision will help them given the strength of pro-life voters while Democrats are pinning their midterm hopes on a pro-choice backlash.

So far, Advantage GOP.

(COMMENT, BELOW)

Dick Morris, who served as adviser to former Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and former President Clinton, is the author of 16 books, including his latest, Screwed and Here Come the Black Helicopters.