Other Than A Candidate Stuck At Home, How's The Health Of Biden's Campaign?

Assuming the candidate himself is surviving his Delaware quarantine unscathed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the question would be: what, if anything, presently ails Joe Biden's presidential run?

Here are four possible viruses — you decide the lethality.

The Allegation. The past week has seen increased interest in the saga of Tara Reade, the former Biden Senate aide who claims her boss sexually assaulted her back in the 1990's.

The New York Times has questioned why a major cable network hasn't booked her. The Washington Post supposed that if Biden gave Christine Blasey Ford (Brett Kavanaugh's accuser) the benefit of the doubt, why not Reade? MSNBC's Chris Hayes was trending on Twitter for his coverage of Reade's allegations (the network's liberal viewership is not amused that Hayes decided to act like a journalist).

And that's just in the last 24 hours.

The significance? These are all liberal outlets normally not in the business of providing bandwidth for this kind of story — at least, not when it affects the Democratic Party's nominee-in-waiting.

The question: does Reade's story impact the election?

Let's assume she eventually makes her way to the cable airwaves. Once upon a time, this would have been a Larry King exclusive. In this partisan age, Reade's likely landing spot is the Fox News Channel (I'd wager Martha MacCallum would conduct the interview).

But beyond FNC? The story may struggle for oxygen as long as: (a) Biden doesn't allow reporters to review his Senate files, currently under lock and key at the University of Delaware; and (b) prominent Democratic women uniformly shrug off the allegation (so far, count House Speaker Pelosi and New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in this "nothing burger" category).

Still, Biden may have a different media problem . . .

Meet The Press? Joe Biden's full-blown last press conference (reporters managed to slip in three questions during Biden's endorsement event with Hillary earlier this week)? A "virtual news briefing" back on April 2.

It's not like the former vice president has gone dark. He's done one-on-one interviews with various news outlets. However, his campaign has done so at the expense of the beat reporters who've been following the Biden effort since its launch a year ago.  

Will Biden do a large-scale "new briefing" in the next few days? It would help if he had some news to announce. Otherwise, it stacks up as a series of uneasy questions about Reade's allegation.

But what would come after letting the press entourage vent some steam? Here's a suggestion: the campaign should ramp up its social media game and name a running mate.

I agree with the former — Biden's current all-digital campaign is weak tea, based on the anemic numbers he's drawing on the likes of YouTube, Facebook and Twitter.

But choosing a running mate in May? Bad idea. COVID-19 dominates the news. Even if President Trump is longing for MAGA rallies, there's no evidence that the American people are experiencing a political withdrawal. If you're Biden, why not wait until closer to the national convention — if there is such a creature — when the public might actually be interested in something other than disease and a diseased economy?

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By the way, a grumpy media following isn't unique to Biden's situation. In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom does virtual updates at noon on the West Coast, yet the Sacramento press corps now clamors for an in-person download from the governor.

Maybe there's no pleasing some folks, which takes us to . . . 

Slow-Burning Bernie Bros. New York election officials cancelled the Empire State's June 23 presidential primary and the reaction from Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders' fan base was . . . well, predictable in its outrage (on an anger scale of 1-10, Bernie Bros always start at 15).

"Any Democratic Party attempt to strip Sen. Sanders of the delegates he has been awarded or the opportunity to win additional delegates hurts their credibility with core elements of the Democratic base that are essential to defeating Donald Trump," said Neil Sroka, a Democratic activist.

"There's a real risk for the long-term credibility in the eyes of the next generation if it's felt like they're just trying to push Sanders off for the sake of convenience or expediency."

Such is life with democratic socialists and their more mainstream kin: they're impossible to please. Take Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, the lone House Democrat to vote against the most recent federal relief package. Her reasoning: "It is a joke when Republicans say they have urgency around this bill . ..  you are not trying to fix this bill for mom & pops. We have to fight to fund hospitals. Fighting to fund testing . . . It is unconscionable."

What this should tell Biden: unless he turns his acceptance into a 2.0 version of what Franklin Roosevelt proclaimed at the 1932 Democratic National Convention  — in FDR's words, a "new deal for the American people" . . . "a call to arms" . . . a "crusade" that eventually fundamentally reshape the federal government — he'll come up short in his quest to enthuse Bernie Bros who insist it's their way or the highway (a greener economy, nationalized healthcare and wealth redistribution, for starters).

Better for Biden to focus on independents in the swing states. While also watching his back because . . .

A New York Minute? If you're a fan of conspiracies and hidden agendas, there are two ways to see New York's decision to postpone its presidential primary.

Theory One: Gov. Andrew Cuomo was doing Biden a favor — insurance, if you will, against a scenario where the Reade story does damage to Biden, gives new life to Sanders' candidacy, he springs an upset in New York, confusion reigns.

Theory Two: Cuomo wanted to pocket the delegates just in case Biden doesn't clinch the nomination on the first ballot and the convention descends into a floor fight (here's one columnist who thinks Biden should step aside at the convention and give the job to Cuomo).

Let's assume New York's decision was as simple as erring on the side of caution and public health concerns.

Still, there's the matter of Democratic enthusiasm, which is one of the reasons for the Cuomo buzz. 

This Emerson College Polling survey has Biden leading President Trump by six points (48%-42%). The bad news: less than half of Biden voters (45%) said they were excited to vote for him, versus 64% of Trump voters excited to support their man. One-quarter of Biden's supporters (26%) said they weren't that excited, versus only 15% of Trumpers. Getting back to our earlier point about the unapproachable Bernie Bros, 65% of those who voted for Sanders this year said Biden's candidacy doesn't excite them.

The idea of having to pander to that forever disgruntled element when stay-at-home orders are lifted? Maybe Biden's enjoying his quarantine more than we assume. 

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