Is Trump confounding expectations again?

Don't look now, but Donald Trump may be confounding political expectations again.

On Tuesday morning a slew of state and national polls were released that put the presumptive GOP nominee within sights of Hillary Clinton. If today's surveys hint at a coming trend, then all that talk about Trump's general election ceiling is as worthless as the months of talk predicting the same during the Republican primary season.

Tuesday's NBC News/Survey Monkey tracking poll has Clinton ahead of Trump by five points, but that is far closer than the 13-point lead the Democratic front-runner enjoyed last week in a CNN/ORC poll.

A number of swing state polls were also released by Quinnipiac on Tuesday, and they show the race essentially tied in some of the most important swing states: Florida, Ohio and, most surprisingly, Pennsylvania. Trump even leads Clinton by four points in the Buckeye State.

Like most polls taken six months before an election, these surveys will prove meaningless by Election Day. Outside circumstances ranging from foreign wars to third-party challenges could shake this race to its core. But there are at least three takeaways from today that are worth noting: First, Trump is doing better in head-to-head matchups against Clinton than Mitt Romney did vs. Barack Obama. This comes despite the Manhattan billionaire faring poorly with Hispanics, women and other key demographics.

Second, voters' concerns about Clinton may keep the race against Trump much closer than it would be against other candidates. While Clinton essentially ties Trump in critical swing states, Bernie Sanders fares better in most statewide polls and in general election matchups against Trump. Sanders outperforms Clinton by more than six points nationally, by two points in Ohio and by six points in Pennsylvania.

Third, Republican voters seem to be lining up behind their presumptive nominee even if the Republican establishment is not. A GOP candidate does not lead in an Ohio poll by four points, whether it is taken in May or November, unless his party's rank-and-file members are siding with their nominee.

Polls are only a snapshot in time, as Trump's critics have been telling us since July. And it is also possible that these latest surveys simply picked up a disturbance in the political Force that will dissipate by next week.

But the short and frenetic history of Trump's political rise suggests it to be something more. It also suggests that everyone, including myself, would be wise to take heed of my "Morning Joe" co-host Mika Brzezinski's year-long prediction that Donald J. Trump just might be the next president of the United States.

I laughed when Mika predicted the same of Barack Obama in 2007. I am not laughing anymore.

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Joe Scarborough, a former Republican congressman from Florida, hosts the MSNBC show "Morning Joe."