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Benjamin Netanyahu has now been under investigation for more than a year. The police have given immunity to two members of his inner circle. Perhaps these state's witnesses know things that will be incriminating. Or not. It's all under wraps for now.
In the meantime, the presumption of innocence is the Israeli prime minister's first line of defense, and so far it is working. 2019 is an election year and Bibi intends to run, indictment or not. If you believe the 10 separate opinion polls conducted recently, he and his center-right coalition will very likely win and continue to govern.
Unlike Donald Trump, Netanyahu can't shoot someone on a city street and still keep his loyal base. But Bibi isn't accused of shooting anyone. His alleged crimes are taking expensive cigars and champagne from "friends," exploring (but not consummating) a deal for better press coverage in a newspaper by undercutting its competitor, and awarding special treatment to a telecommunications magnate in return for what might be nothing more than positive coverage for Bibi's wife on the magnate's online news site.
Such offenses strike Likudniks as esoteric political misdemeanors, business as usual. As for the prime minister, he sees it all as a political witch hunt and is sticking to his mantra: "They won't find anything because there's nothing to find."
When the investigations heated up a few months ago, a couple of Bibi's coalition partners hinted they would force him to step down if he was indicted. The recent polls have convinced them to take a step back. Netanyahu is a proven winner after all. And, as they say in racing circles, you can't beat a horse with no horse.
He stands unchallenged in his own party, and faces a weak field of contenders on the center-left. In a recent prime-ministerial preference poll, he got more support than the major opposition party leaders combined. They finished third and fourth, behind "Don't Know/Other."
Bibi's appeal goes beyond the Israeli "deplorables" who make up his base and the coalition pols who want to ride him back into office. The general public regards him as an experienced and successful prime minister. Even his bitter enemies concede that Israel is more secure and prosperous than it was when he came to power. They tend to attribute this to luck.
Netanyahu, of course, sees it as the fruit of his wise and effective leadership. The slogan for his next campaign will be: "You've Never Had It So Good."
This boast has received international validation in recent weeks. In mid-March, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development issued its annual economic report card for its members, the industrialized democracies. Israel - with 3.3 percent annual growth, a "comfortable" external surplus and an enviable public-debt-to-GDP ratio - got a high grade.
Not only that, the OECD ascribed this stellar performance to Israel's "long history of effective micromanagement policy settings and bold structural reforms." Netanyahu instituted many of these reforms and policies during his tenure as finance minister (2003-2005), and he has presided over them during his near-decade as prime minister. Obviously he doesn't deserve all the credit, but incumbents get bragging rights. And an endorsement by the OECD makes a great talking point.
So does the annual Gallup Poll survey of Israel's standing with the American public, released in early February. For years, Netanyahu's critics have accused him of endangering American sympathies for Israel with his hard-line policies on Palestinian independence and strident opposition to Iranian expansion.
These accusations reached a crescendo in 2015, when he appeared before a joint session of Congress and openly called for a revolt against the Barack Obama administration's nuclear deal with Iran. The Israeli commentariat overwhelming pronounced this a disastrous act of hubris certain to damage American public support.
Bibi dismissed the dire predictions as alarmist. And, according to Gallup, he was right; 74 percent of U.S. adults now have a favorable view of Israel - the highest rating since 1991, when Iraqi missiles were fired at Israeli cities by Saddam Hussein. And, despite Netanyahu's obvious Republican leanings and close ties to Trump, support is trans-partisan: 83 percent of Republicans, 72 percent of independents and 64 percent of Democrats.
The single most important piece of good news arrived in early March, courtesy of the U.N.'s annual "Happiness Report." The survey asks people in 156 nations to evaluate their lives, using criteria such as health care, life expectancy, social support and personal freedom. For the fifth year in a row, Israel finished in 11th place, just behind Australia and considerably ahead of the U.S., the U.K. and France. Happy voters are an incumbent's best friend.
Netanyahu is still not home free. Constant police interrogation is a drag on his time and attention. With his wife, Sara, and his son Yair implicated in some of the cases, it doesn't do much for his family life, either. If the cops come up with proof of serious criminal behavior rising to the level of moral turpitude, Bibi will almost certainly be indicted.
When his predecessor, Ehud Olmert, faced that prospect he resigned - and wound up in prison. Netanyahu is a tougher and more audacious character, and he has the public support Olmert lacked. Indicted or not, he intends to be on the ballot. And if he wins re-election, he'll face his legal troubles with another talking point: The people have spoken.
Previously:
• 02/28/18: How Billy Graham made Israel kosher to evangelicals
• 02/07/18: Israel's immigration crisis is a lesson for Trump
• 01/29/18: What Pence's 'worthless' trip reveals
• 11/27/17: Look to Israel for a playbook on dealing with North Korea
• 11/27/17: Why Israel will dictate any terms of a 'peace deal'. And why the 'Palestinians' will have no choice but to accept them
Chafets is a journalist and author of 14 books. He was a senior aide to Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin and the founding managing editor of the Jerusalem Report Magazine.