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Dems now searching for candidates with a fresh face and interesting backgrounds that are short on legislative voting records

Paul Kane

By Paul Kane The Washington Post

Published Feb. 22, 2019

Dems now searching for candidates with a fresh face and interesting backgrounds that are short on legislative voting records
WASHINGTON - A new poll showing a potential Senate candidate in strong position to challenge an incumbent in a key state usually draws keen interest from smart strategists and analysts.

But Wednesday's release of the latest Iowa Poll drew smirks and outright derision from some of the smartest people in politics, mostly because it tested out the popularity of the state's former Democratic governor, Tom Vilsack.

Not surprisingly Vilsack, by a more than 2-to-1 margin, remains popular with Iowans despite last running for office in 2002, and he has not yet ruled out a race against Sen. Joni Ernst, R, next year. Which is what prompted the groans across the Internet.

"Ted Strickland, Evan Bayh, Phil Bredesen," tweeted Nathan Gonzales, an independent political analyst who is editor of Inside Elections, naming three Democrats who recently lost Senate races. "But I'm sure Democrats will tell me this time will be different."

Those three are part of trend in which Senate Democrats have repeatedly fallen back on the political version of an old comfortable shoe. They are usually former governors or former senators - sometimes both - who last ran for office more than a decade ago. They all started off in seemingly strong position, some in states that had drifted far away from Democrats in recent years.

But one by one, over the course of the modern campaign of instant information moving across the Internet, all of them lost - most by double-digit margins.

That's why, as they head into 2020, some Democrats are searching for candidates with a fresh face and interesting backgrounds that are short on legislative voting records.


In the 2018 midterms House Democrats had a smashing success with dozens of first-time candidates coming from the military, intelligence agencies and prosecutor offices. Those Democrats provided a large chunk of the pickups that led to a 40-seat gain and swept the party into the House majority.

Senate Democrats still defend almost all of the political veterans they recruited for races they lost, particularly someone like Bredesen, the former Tennessee governor. Despite losing by 11 percentage points, Bredesen was popular enough that he forced Republicans to spend heavily to elect Sen. Marsha Blackburn, R, including $4 million from outside GOP groups in the final week of the race.

And some say it's more about the 2020 Senate map that is forcing Democrats to think creatively, given the lack of a political bench in states like North Carolina.

The prototype might be Mark Kelly, 55, the former space shuttle pilot and naval aviator who is married to former representative Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz. For the past eight years Kelly helped lead a gun-control group, before launching a Senate bid from Arizona earlier this month.

He raised more than $1 million on the first day of his campaign.

Other potential candidates include Jamie Harrison, the former state Democratic Party chairman who is trying to turn South Carolina into the first state ever with two black senators at the same time. And if Vilsack does not jump into the Iowa race, many strategists will turn to the two Democrats who just won previously-held GOP seats, Reps. Cindy Axne and Abby Finkenauer.

Democrats are considering some do-over candidates, but those are newcomers who ran very strong races last year only to fall just short.

Stacey Abrams, who narrowly lost the Georgian gubernatorial race, has met with party officials in Washington about a Senate bid in 2020 - a courtship that also included Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., selecting her to deliver the Democratic response to President Donald Trump's State of the Union address earlier this month.

In early February, Schumer met with Beto O'Rourke, who is considering a challenge to Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, next year and foregoing a possible presidential bid, in the wake of his 2018 campaign that just missed ousting Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas.

Three other possible contenders are Democrats who narrowly lost House races last year: Amy McGrath, the first female Marine to fly combat missions, considering a race against Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.; and, if other big names pass on races in their states, J.D. Schloten of Iowa and MJ Hegar of Texas.

Republicans are sure to label these candidates as retreads, losers grasping for a win, but each demonstrated an ability to raise money, generate excitement from voters and outperform expectations in difficult political terrain.

Gonzales believes that is a better foundation for a modern Senate campaign than pulling someone like Vilsack, 68, out of retirement.

"It's natural to go to the people who have won there before, particularly if it's a difficult state," he said in a follow-up interview. "Recovering politicians bring voting records to defend and a sense that their time has past, at a time when voters are skeptical of politicians and looking for fresh faces."

Senate Republicans learned this lesson heading into 2014 when after four straight losing election cycles, they recruited a crop of relative newcomers. They picked up nine Democratic seats, claiming the majority, with just one former governor and only one GOP candidate who had served more than two terms in the House.

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Democrats, in reviewing recent elections, privately contend that authenticity is the most important trait for victory, pointing to three incumbents who won in what should have been very tough races last year: Sens. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Jon Tester of Montana.

When it comes to flipping seats, however, Democrats have largely done so with relative newcomers. In the last six years, they have won five seats from GOP hands: Sens. Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill., Maggie Hassan, D-N.H., Doug Jones, D-Ala., Jacky Rosen, D-Nev., and Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz.

Of those five, Hassan is the only previous statewide candidate, having won two terms as governor immediately before wining the 2016 Senate race.

Duckworth was an Army helicopter pilot who lost both her legs in combat in Iraq. Jones was a former U.S. attorney who prosecuted members of the Ku Klux Klan for a previously unsolved 1963 church bombing.

Voters, more and more, are turning away from the comfortable old shoe and want something fresh.

"When you take a step back, it's tough not to see a trend," Gonzales said.

(COMMENT, BELOW)

Previously:

02/11/19: Pelosi and Dingell rivalry reflects the evolution of the Dem Party
01/07/19: Why Congress isn't feeling the pressure for a fast deal to end the shutdown --- yet
11/19/18: DEMS DEUX? Donkeys' reckoning, gamble
11/06/18: If Dems seize House, expect creation of political whiplash, more division
10/23/18: Regardless of who wins the House, massive turnover is ahead
10/19/18: Republican candidates rely on stealth campaigner George W. Bush
10/04/18: The Senate's two faces: A day marked by bipartisan achievements and character attacks
07/02/18: Plenty of drama is coming on Supreme Court nominee --- but not in Senate questioning
06/28/18: Powerful Dem's loss divides, stuns about the future of party leadership
06/27/18: Crowley's loss leaves gaping void for next generation of Dem leaders
03/22/18: How Senate Republicans could cause trouble for Trump's latest Cabinet nominees
02/06/18: Paul Ryan's defense of FBI sets him apart from loudest voices within GOP
12/02/17: If Cotton moves to the CIA, it would say a lot about how the GOP star views his party's future
11/02/17: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell finally has something to brag about: Conservative judicial appointments
08/29/17: In the Year of the Deciding Vote, one Dem's corruption trial could change the Senate --- or not
08/28/17: President is distancing himself from Hill GOPers to inoculate himself from blame for midterm losses. He may be helping Dems take the House
07/27/17: GOP senators warn Trump that getting rid of Sessions would be terrible move
05/30/17: Rahm Emanuel on Dem problems: 'You're not going to solve it in 2018'
05/29/17: Sen. Lindsey Graham: Comey needs to be 'held accountable' over Clinton investigation decisions
05/29/17: Montana election proves liberal outrage isn't enough
03/22/17: Gorsuch steals Dems' line of attack
02/27/17: 'All politics is local'? Not any more
02/01/17: Fight over Supreme Court nominee could forever change the nature of ... the Senate
01/23/17: A possible cushion for Trump's Cabinet nominees: Dems with elections in 2018
01/12/17: Trump outsmarts Dems and their media sycophants yet again
01/11/17: Rubio is the man to watch in Tillerson's confirmation hearing
11/08/16: Sometimes even the best Senate candidates can't win
07/14/16: The likely end of vice presidents as congressional emissaries
05/02/16: Is the 2016 election about to change again? Dem Schumer, a one-man super PAC?
03/31/16: And now for some good newsCan Trump become so unpopular that Dems take back the House?

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