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March 28th, 2024

Insight

Trump seen as losing South Carolina debate

James Hohmann

By James Hohmann

Published Feb. 15, 2016

The Big Idea: There is widespread consensus that Donald Trump had a very bad night in Greenville. The question is whether that will cause lasting damage, or if he continues to be coated in Teflon.

One of the problems for leaders of the chattering class is that they have been so wrong about Trump so many times for so many months that everyone is gun-shy about predicting his impending decline.

The billionaire was flustered and cranky. Not only was he thrown off his game by sustained boos from the crowd and a pile-on by his rivals, but he often sounded more like a Democrat than a Republican. He didn't just call George W. Bush's decision to invade Iraq a disaster - which he has done before - but he blamed him for 9/11 and said that the former president "lied" about the presence of weapons of mass destruction as a pretext for war. "Obviously the war in Iraq was a big, fat mistake," the frontrunner said at the Peace Center. "George Bush made a mistake. We can make mistakes, but that one was a beauty. We should have never been in Iraq. We have destabilized the Middle East."

Trump again defended Planned Parenthood, as everyone else promised to defund it. "It does wonderful things, but not as it relates to abortion," he said. "Wonderful things that have to do with women's health." Keep in mind that he said this in the buckle of the Bible Belt, just down the road from Furman and Bob Jones universities.

If next Saturday's Republican primary becomes solely a referendum on W, which it probably won't, Jeb could win.

The former president, who is flying to Charleston Monday night to campaign with his brother, still has an astronomical approval rating among likely voters in the Palmetto State. "I am sick and tired of him going after my family," Jeb said. "While Donald Trump was building a reality TV show, my brother was building a security apparatus to keep us safe."

Bush's popularity in the Palmetto State is why Marco Rubio jumped to the 43rd president's defense as much as his brother.

"I thank G0D all the time that it was George W. Bush in the White House on 9/11 and not Al Gore," the Florida senator said. "He kept us safe."

It was one of the biggest applause lines of the night, and it prompted Trump to shout: "I lost hundreds of friends. The World Trade Center came down during the reign of George Bush! He kept us safe? That is not safe!"

Trump calling Bush a liar might have been a bridge too far, Dave Weigel thinks: "Republicans generally believe, against evidence, that Iraq held weapons of mass destruction when America invaded in 2003. In 2012, a poll conducted by a Dartmouth political scientist found that 63 percent of Republicans still thought this. Last year, a poll from Fairleigh Dickinson University's Public Mind found a majority of Republicans, 51 percent believed WMD had been found in Iraq."

Scott Clement flags a Post-ABC poll last May that found 54 percent of Republicans still think the Iraq war was worth fighting, while 41 percent said it was not.

A January 2007 Post-ABC News poll found 83 percent of Republicans thought Bush had made the country "safer and more secure." Later that year, our poll found 85 percent of Republicans approved of the way Bush handled the U.S. campaign against terrorism.

Romney alum Katie Packer Gage's group, Our Principles PAC, will launch a digital campaign Sunday to highlight Trump's support for impeaching W in 2008.

Recall that Trump was basically a non-factor during the previous two debates. He boycotted Fox News before the Iowa caucus, and his rivals basically avoided mentioning him. In New Hampshire last weekend on ABC ,the rest of the field was focused on arresting Rubio's momentum. That means it has been quite a while since he took much real heat from his critics, with the exception of a clash with Jeb over eminent domain.

But last night, reflecting the establishment's renewed focus on stopping Trump, the ninth Republican debate was almost entirely about Trump. He got the most airtime (16 minutes), two minutes more than Cruz and five minutes more than Bush, Rubio or Kasich. "Refusing to bow to party orthodoxy or even politeness, Trump trashed one of the most revered families in Republican politics and made a big political bet that standing his ground is better than backing down, no matter how much he is under fire," the Post's Dan Balz wrote in his column. "Trump did not flinch. But whether he will be punished or rewarded by voters here in next weekend's primary was the unanswerable question."

Here's the rub: Two-thirds of likely voters in South Carolina are not supporting Trump. An ARG poll that was in the field during the two days leading up to the debate has Trump at 35 percent, with a closely-bunched battle for second: Kasich at 15, Rubio at 14, Cruz at 12 and Bush at 10.

So will last night move the numbers?

Chris Cillizza: "Trump seemed somewhat out of control and angry for much of the debate. . . . Trump, who often comes across as tough yet good-natured, came across on Saturday night as downright mean in several exchanges with Bush and Cruz. (And, as any politician will tell you, it's tough to make Cruz into an empathetic figure.) Trump's hard-core supporters will never leave him - no matter how well or badly he does in a debate. And, his hard-core supporters may well be enough to carry him to victory in a week's time in South Carolina. But, that doesn't mean Trump was good Saturday night. He wasn't." Chris names Rubio and Bush as the two winners.

Charles Krauthammer, on Fox, called Trump "Very bitter": "He took a risk in being as open and often contemptuous as he was, But I don't think it's going to shake his support. The question is, will it limit his support?"

BuzzFeed's McKay Coppins: "The hostile crowd reaction seemed to take a toll on the longtime showman. Trump, his face reddening, erupted at even the faintest prompt or mildest pushback. When a moderator pressed him on a question about Social Security, he grew increasingly defensive and disproportionately upset and by the end of the exchange he was shouting his answer."

The Daily Beast's Will Rahn: "If the Donald somehow starts to slip - if his lead in South Carolina narrows, if a clear alternative to his slow march to the nomination develops - this debate will likely be seen as the turning point, the moment when the man who's thrown out every rulebook in politics finally learns that a few rules still apply. Or, more likely, no clear alternative rises from tonight's pileup, as Trump continues his divide-and-conquer undoing of the modern Republican Party."

The Weekly Standard's John McCormack: "People who follow politics a lot are used to Trump's unhinged moments, but debate audiences haven't seen 2-hour meltdown like this."

"Meet the Press" moderator Chuck Todd: "Trump is testing the limits of whether he can ever grow his support enough to be the conservative party's nominee . . . unless SC has changed, I think he hurt himself."

Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol: "Best debate yet. Trump definitively exposed. Cruz, Rubio and Bush all impressive in different ways . . . Jeb most likely won't be the nominee. But he did a service to the country by provoking Trump to blurt out his nutty views on Bush and WMD."

Politico spokesman and longtime Republican operative Brad Dayspring: "Did Trump implode or did he double down on what's propelled him? I'd argue the latter. We'll see." Politico's headline says Trump was "BLUDGEONED."

ABC's Rick Klein:"Predictions of Trump doing damage to his own campaign have been almost comically wrong over the past six months . . . and perhaps Trump is indeed a better student than everyone in the political class has realized. But on a night where the importance of the race was highlighted anew, Trump's rivals could portray him as flunking a big test."

Cook Political Report's Amy Walter:"The key issue post-debate isn't what it means for Trump, it's was there a clear 'establishment' lane winner? Don't think there was."

New York Times columnist Ross Douthat: "Even on an 'off' night Trump takes up so much oxygen that he makes it very hard for anyone else to look even somewhat presidential . . . The casual viewer sees a bunch of career politicians being heckled by a famous guy who seems to be telling at least *some* hard truths . . . As I may have mentioned before, I don't think Trump can be the nominee . . . but damn (sorry!) can he make it hard for anyone else to win."

Rubio had a good night: The Weekly Standard's Stephen Hayes: "After last week's stumbles, Rubio probably needed the debate of his life this week. He got it."

Max Boot: "In tonight's debate it was Trump vs. George W. Bush. Bush won. And best defense of him came from Rubio."

The Resurgent's Erick Erickson: "Rubio had to prove himself . . . And he rose to the occasion . . . [he] found his footing again in the CBS debate and evangelicals leaning toward Rubio have every reason to see how he trends in South Carolina. He was the candidate who turned issues toward family, and I think he got the better of Cruz in the immigration exchange."

The Weekly Standard's Michael Warren: "He seemed to bounce back with strong, informed answers on national security and taxes. But with his top establishment rivals delivering solid turns themselves, has Rubio's opportunity to break out of the pack passed?"

Chris Cillizza: "Does Rubio still talk a little too fast and sound a little too rehearsed? Yes. But, he clearly helped himself."

Many were impressed by Bush:

Rich Lowry: "Jeb stood up to Trump, just wish he had better rhetorical hammers than saying Trump is insulting his way to the nomination." . . . [and] as we learned in NH, it doesn't matter if audience is booing Trump."

Jennifer Rubin: "My G0D, if this Jeb showed up day one he would have won by now."

Politico's Eli Stokols: "Jeb really took it to Trump tonight. But as we saw with Christie last week, the aggressor doesn't always benefit. And Trump has been bulletproof."

Washington Examiner's David Freddoso: "I didn't expect to be saying Jeb is winning a debate, but he's winning a debate . . . A lot of people who don't even care for Jeb have to be admiring how he bloodied Trump's nose there." .

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