How Did Donald Trump Become the Frontrunner?

After his big primary victory in New Hampshire, Donald Trump is now the favorite to win the GOP nomination. He is up big in South Carolina and nationally. How did such an unlikely candidate emerge out of a crowded field of over fifteen candidates? The answer lies in a confluence of a half-dozen different factors resulting in a perfect storm for the Donald.

First, a 2010 Supreme Court decision, Citizens United V FEC allowed corporations, unions, and non-profits to make unlimited contributions to super PACs supporting candidates. This ruling allowed many more candidates to run for president than we have seen before. The original group of over fifteen GOP presidential candidates would likely have been less than half that size if candidates were held to the fundraising limitations imposed on their own PACs.

These contributions are limited to a total of $2700 per person per election. But the same person who gives a candidate $2700 for his PAC can turn around and write a check for a million dollars to the candidate's super PAC. A presidential candidate who has one donor who promises to give or raise $10,000,000 to a super PAC knows that he only has to raise about two million dollars in his own PAC to get through Iowa and New Hampshire. The candidate's own PAC must pay for campaign salaries, office expenses travel and minimal advertising. The Super PAC then can pick up the very expensive costs of TV and radio advertising.

Second, the very crowded field which emerged as the result of the Citizens United decision has diminished almost all the candidates while allowing Trump to thrive.

Trump is a TV personality, big, tan, super rich and stands out as the alpha male in a field of alpha men and women. He has a huge voice. The more candidates on a stage, the more Trump appears to be different from the rest. He is the anti-establishment, tell-it-like-it-is, deep throated figure who continues to generate the lion's share of media coverage in part because the field has been so crowded.

Third, cable 24 hour TV news, particularly Fox News and CNN have given Trump hundreds of millions of dollars in free media coverage as they vie for those viewers who either love Trump or love to hate him. 2016 Campaign Television Tracker says that Trump coverage accounts for 41% of all GOP candidate name mentions. That figure barely captures the time and attention given Trump on a daily basis. In 2008, liberal media outlets loved Obama and gave him great coverage. But today we have the traditionally liberal CNN and MSNBC along with the conservative Fox News competing with each other for Trump watchers.

Fourth, Trump has emerged during a period when many voters are deeply disillusioned about politics and politicians. President Obama's enormous foreign policy failures have left many Americans open to the Trump promise to "Make America Great Again." Americans have watched helplessly as Obama has presided over the greatest retreat of American power in our history. Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and ISIS all have increased their reach and power as America has withdrawn. Without providing any detail other than "we will win again" and "we will defeat ISIS," Trump's promise of a future America returned to greatness is appealing to many GOP voters.

Fifth, the slowest economic recovery since the Great Depression has left many people skeptical that traditional political leaders can improve the economy. Non-college graduates are hurting the most. Many families are taking home less money than they were before the Great Recession and living with enormous economic insecurity. Many voters do not want to listen to detailed plans for improving the economy. They are attracted to the demagogue who promises to create millions of new jobs, even if he doesn't explain how, and win. Trump's only policy proposal to accomplish his promised recovery is to negotiate trade deals that will somehow miraculously bring manufacturing jobs that were once America's back from Mexico, Japan and China.

Into this unique historic mix of new campaign funding leading to a flood of GOP candidates, round-the-clock cable news coverage, Obama's failed foreign policy and a weak economy, steps a television personality promising to fix everything that is wrong with our country.

Trump immediately jumped to the head of all the polls by playing on the fears of many by calling Mexican immigrants rapists and promising to deport all 11,000,000. Trump's simple promise to Make America Great and deport Mexican aliens has served him well.

As we head into South Carolina and Nevada, the GOP race is down to four men, Trump, Cruz, Rubio and Bush. Carson and Kasich will most likely fade after the next few contests.

The only way Trump can be slowed down is if the field continues to narrow. Bush and Rubio cannot both continue as they are competing for the same voters. If one of them drops out and Kasich and Carson pull out, the final three will likely be Trump and Cruz, along with Bush or Rubio. In that scenario, a focused attack on Trump along with a great deal of media attention to one or two opponents might, just might slow him down and deny him the nomination.

Previously:
• 12/14/15 Russia in Syria

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Chris Gersten was Director of the Office of Refugee Resettlement in the Department of Health and Human Services from 1989 until 1993. He is also a former political director of AIPAC.