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Jewish World Review Feb. 22, 2001 / 10 Adar, 5762

Marvin C. Ott

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Just keep telling yourself it's all perfectly normal


http://www.NewsAndOpinion.com -- IMAGINE that you had convened an assemblage of the nation's top foreign policy experts in 1990 and asked them to predict the shape of the world, and America's place in it, for the next decade or two. You would have heard a consensus forecast that international affairs would be dominated by economic concerns -- for lots of reasons.

The US economy of the 1980s was in the doldrums with a growing number of commentators, here and abroad, pronouncing upon America's "decline." By contrast, Asia was achieving unprecedented rates of economic growth; Japan was "number one," and economic dragons and mini-dragons were populating the landscape. Europe was on the brink of its own unprecedented development - the consolidation of the European Union into a kind of transnational super-state that would equal if not surpass the US as an economic unit. The prospects of the old world seemed more exciting than the new.

Meanwhile, the Soviet Union was dissolving and with it the strategic contest that had preoccupied America's foreign and defense policy establishments for 50 years. The rationale for NATO under these circumstances was increasingly questionable. Absent the glue of a common strategic threat, the cohesion of the Atlantic Alliance could be expected to erode. Moscow would convert from a military to an economic problem, i.e. how could the West help Russia make the transition from a totalitarian command economy to one of democratic free enterprise?

These expected changes in the international environment would have profound consequences for US policy. After an abnormal half century of high peacetime defense budgets and large overseas deployments, the US would refocus inward on the domestic agenda including economic growth, crime, education etc. America's instinctive parochialism would reassert itself; we would return to "normalcy."

In some respects the 1990s started out according to script. A small state governor was elected President on a campaign featuring the slogan, "It's the economy, stupid!" The first big foreign policy issue facing the new Administration was the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) proposal. US troop deployments in Europe were sharply reduced as was the defense budget. The economy began to respond to corporate and government initiatives and budget deficits gave way to surpluses. Foreign policy stressed trade and investment as well as the role of the United Nations and humanitarian assistance programs. America was safe; its budget was in the black; its heart was pure; and the horizon was bright. One American author captured the mood with a best selling book carrying the preposterous title, The End of History - by which he meant the end of bad, unpleasant history.

But history has a habit of writing its own script. The world that actually emerged after 1990 did not conform to expert forecasts. First, it turned out to be a much more violent place than anticipated. A variety of local animosities and ambitions that had been suppressed by the Cold War suddenly turned lethal. The Balkans became a killing ground; Iraq invaded Kuwait; and genocide became the order of the day in central Africa. Even in the relatively quiescent Far East events took a nasty turn in Tienanmen Square. Second, the wheels came off Asia's economic juggernaut producing a major political/security crisis in Indonesia. Third, North Korea was suddenly revealed to have a nuclear weapons program - while Indian and Pakistan both announced their entry into the nuclear club by a series of test explosions. Fourth, fanatic anti-Western groups and sentiment became increasingly influential in the Islamic world. These in turn produced a secret global terrorist network that effectively captured Afghanistan and launched a series of attacks on Europe and, especially America, culminating in the horror of 9/11.

All of this has had direct and dramatic consequences for America and its role in the world. Instead of peace and home economics, the US has found itself in a succession of intense small wars - in the Persian Gulf, Bosnia, Kosovo, and Afghanistan. Along the way US forces occupied Haiti, were bloodied in Somalia, and deployed from Macedonia to Colombia. The "peace dividend" proved as illusory as the peace. Instead of bringing the men and women in uniform home, US forces were deployed ever more widely and at an ever higher operational tempo. Now Washington is committed to an open-ended war against international terrorism that the Administration promises will last indefinitely and will almost certainly involve a growing number of countries. Needless to say, the budget surpluses of just yesterday are only a memory.

There are plenty of lessons and implications to be drawn from all this. One is that reliable prophecies are hard to come by. Beware of anyone who claims to have figured out how history works. A second may be that the Cold War era of international threats and a large American security presence overseas was not an aberration. It is, in fact, a permanent condition. The logic of an anarchic and increasingly dangerous world is that someone - for the good of everyone - must enforce the peace. America, working with its friends and allies, is the only possible occupant of that role. It is a role that many American won't and don't like; it has already proven costly and difficult. But the alternatives at this juncture are simply untenable. So fasten your seatbelts; we're in for a long ride.

Just keep telling yourself it's all perfectly normal.



JWR contributor Marvin C. Ott is a professor of national security policy at National War College. The views expressed are his own. Comment by clicking here.

Up

02/07/02: Jacksonian America
12/28/01: The peace of the strong
12/20/01: When 'dead or alive' is dead-wrong

© 2001, Marvin C. Ott