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With less than two months left until the November election, Republicans have a real chance to retain their Senate majority.
That's a somewhat remarkable statement given not only the built-in challenges for Senate Republicans this election but also the unforeseen hurdle presented by the emergence of Donald Trump as the party's presidential nominee. And it's due, in large part, to just two people: Sens. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and Rob Portman, R-Ohio.
The strengths of those candidacies - both Portman and Rubio are leading comfortably in Quinnipiac University polls released late last week - in such large and expensive states is the glue that, at the moment, is holding together Republicans' dream of keeping the Senate. Without Rubio in Florida and Portman in Ohio, Sen. Charles E. Schumer, D-N.Y., would already be moving his boxes into the Senate majority leader's office.
Take a step back and consider the challenge that the 2016 map poses for Republicans. The party is defending 24 seats this fall compared with just 10 for Democrats. And it's actually worse for Republicans than even those raw numbers suggest. Remember that this class of senators was elected in 2010 - a very good year to be Republican anywhere in the country. That national environment helped Republicans win in Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Ohio and Florida, among other Democratic-leaning or swing states. Six years later, those incumbents are having to run not only in a presidential year - with its resultant turnout increases - but also in a year with Trump at the top of the ticket.
That math led many political handicappers to conclude that a Democratic takeover of the Senate was near-inevitable in 2016. After all, Democrats need only a net four seats if Hillary Clinton is elected president and five if she isn't to retake the majority. And with Wisconsin and Illinois virtually impossible holds for Republicans in a presidential year (especially with Trump at the top of the ticket), the whole thing seemed like a foregone conclusion.
Then two things happened.
The first was that Rubio went back on his promise - made during his unsuccessful presidential bid - to not seek a second Senate term in 2016. Rubio's reversal - days before the state's filing deadline - was a huge moment for Senate Republicans.
In a single day, they went from a crowded Republican primary field in which none of the candidates had distinguished themselves to Rubio. (All of the GOP primary candidates with the exception of wealthy developer Carlos Beruff dropped out once Rubio got in.)
For all of the negative publicity Rubio got at the end of his presidential candidacy and his very public "Hamlet" act on running for the Senate again, the reality is that he is not only a very naturally talented candidate but also one with considerable name identification in Florida and lots of access to the tens of millions of dollars necessary to run and win. Rubio's candidacy not only gave Republicans a better-than-average shot to hold the seat but also saved the party committee and its allied super PACs at least $20 million in spending to try to hold the seat.
The second major development was that Portman, who trailed former Ohio governor Ted Strickland (D) in early polls in the Senate race, showed that he is one of the most disciplined and just plain best candidates running for any office these days.
Relentlessly and meticulously, Portman built his organization even as he and his aligned super PAC were ripping Strickland limb from limb via millions of dollars' worth of TV ads painting his governorship as a failure. (Strickland lost his bid for a second term to John Kasich in 2010.)
As the summer went on, it became clear that Portman was not only catching Strickland but lapping him in polls. (Portman has a double-digit lead over Strickland in the RealClearPolitics polling average.) Then came the death blow for Strickland: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) and the Senate Democratic super PAC announced that they were canceling weeks of planned ad buys on his behalf, a sign of rapidly eroding confidence in his chances of making up the ground he has lost to Portman.
"Portman has run a damn fine race," DSCC Executive Director Tom Lopach said at a trade association meeting last week in Washington. "The rest, I'll have to tell you over a drink."
Like Rubio's strength in Florida, Portman's surge in Ohio means more than just a single Senate seat. If Republicans don't need to spend the millions they probably had allocated for Portman in Ohio or for whoever their nominee was going to be in Florida, that frees up lots of money to spend in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nevada and even, potentially, Arizona and Missouri.
None of the above is to argue that Republicans are sitting pretty in their quest to hold the Senate this November. A betting man would give Democrats a narrow edge. But the sole reason you can have a serious conversation about Republicans holding on to their majority in the week after Labor Day is because of Rubio and Portman. Every Republican should send them a "thank you" note.
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