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Jewish World Review Dec. 20, 2000 / 23 Kislev, 5761
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http://www.jewishworldreview.com --
PALESTINIAN AND ISRAELI negotiators may be meeting in Washington, but the
atmosphere of Arab-Israeli relations today remain fundamentally altered from
what it was three months ago. In fact, it resembles the bad old days of
pre-1967.
Back then, Israel's enemies widely believed that they could dispatch the
Jewish state with one good blow. Their over-confidence explains why, with no
one planning or wanting it, full-scale war broke out in June 1967.
Israel's astonishing victory in the Six Day War then seemingly destroyed
Arab exuberance and forever closed the question of its permanent existence.
But it was not to be. The Oslo process along with other signals of
Israeli demoralization over the past seven years reignited Arab
over-confidence and wakened the sleeping dogs of war.
During the past two months especially, in ways reminiscent of the years
before 1967, the enemies of Israel are again tempted by the military option.
In brief, the security that war had achieved for Israel, diplomacy has
undone.
Listen to how, over the past two months, making war on Israel has become an
real choice for the Arab states and Iran.
As usual, Iraq acts the boldest, calling for a jihad to "liberate
Palestine" and "put an end to Zionism." Saddam Husayn has noisily recruited
two million volunteers to fight Israel and sent a division of soldiers to his
border closest with Israel. Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamene'i
has called Israel a "cancerous tumour" that must "be removed."
The untried Syrian regime of Bashshar al-Asad has rattled sabers with
talk of war. In Cairo, reports the Middle East Newsline, the current debate
is about "whether the Israeli-Palestinian mini-war will escalate into a
regional confrontation. At that point, the question is whether Egypt will
enter the fray." President Husni Mubarak denies plans to make total war ("A
war until the last Egyptian soldier is definitely not in the cards") but
makes ominous-sounding threats about "entering the tunnel of the unknown."
Israeli analysts recognize this danger. For example, Yuval Steinitz, the
thoughtful Likud member of the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense
Committee, observes that "Egypt is preparing for a conflict with Israel,
though not necessarily an all-out war."
The U.S. government has, in the person of Martin Indyk, its ambassador to
Israel, acknowledged this danger. Indyk noted how the Israeli-Palestinian
clashes of recent weeks have caused some in the Arab world to float the idea
of resorting to a military option against Israel. He calls these a "very
dangerous challenge."
How might a full-scale war actually come about? Hizbullah, the Lebanese
Islamist organization that expelled Israel's forces from south Lebanon
earlier this year, is probably the key, for Israel has promised to punish
Hizbullah aggression by hitting Syrian targets . Here is one scenario of a
conflict starting without anyone intending it to (as in 1967) from the
Jerusalem Report's cover story, "What Could Trigger War":
Palestinian snippers kill Jewish children, Israeli forces respond with
artillery shells, one of which goes astray and kills twenty Palestinian
children. Furious demonstrators pour into the streets across the Middle
East. Riding these sentiments, Hizbullah attacks northern Israel. As
promised, Israel retaliates against Syrian targets, prompting a mobilization
of Syrian, Egyptian, and other forces, including Israel's. At this point,
concludes the Report, "All-out war on all fronts is one pull of the trigger
away."
Who would pull the trigger? Saddam is a likely candidate. A Palestinian
source notes that he "What Saddam wants to spark a regional war which he
can lead." Israelis agree: a senior military officer expects that the Iraqis
"would love to participate" in a conflict against Israel.
If such a descent into war is not to take place, Israel must carefully
calibrate its actions to achieve two nearly contradictory goals: Deter
potential enemies (be willing to use force and lose lives); and not agitate
the Arab street (deploy violence in an intelligent and controlled way).
This is an exceedingly difficult pair of objectives and they are getting
even harder to achieve as each new day of violence simultaneously diminishes
Israeli deterrence and heightens Arab anger.
To be sure, the Government of Israel has taken some steps (for example,
sending a private warning to Damascus and reinforcing troops on the Golan
Heights) but such easy gestures alone will not suffice.
The sooner Israel seriously begins the effort seriously to dissuade its
potential enemies, the better its chances to dispel the winds of
By Daniel Pipes
JWR contributor Daniel Pipes is director of the Middle East Forum and the author of several books, most recently Conspiracy: How the Paranoid Style Flourishes and Where It Comes from. Let him know what you think by clicking here.
