Bill Schneider
http://www.NewsAndOpinion.com -- San Francisco | It may be just past New Year's, but the 2002 campaign has been underway for some time here in California. The California primary -- voters may be surprised to discover -- is just two months away. It was moved up three months in 2000 to increase the state's clout in the presidential nominating process.
Three Republicans are competing for the chance to challenge Democratic Governor Gray Davis in November: Secretary of State Bill Jones, businessman William Simon and former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan. Riordan, who was encouraged to run by the Bush White House, is leading in the primary polls and favored to win the nomination.
Why did the White House encourage Riordan to run? Because the California GOP is flat on its back. And because the White House wants to eliminate the Davis threat in 2004.
If you wanted to design a winning Republican candidate in California, it would be a wealthy moderate who supports abortion rights and is a well known and popular figure in the Los Angeles area. Bingo -- Dick Riordan!
Riordan is not a favorite of conservatives, but after big Democratic sweeps in 1996, 1998 and 2000, they, too, seem ready to go with a winner. A winner? Wait a minute. No governor of California has been denied a second term since 1942. And California has been trending more and more Democratic.
That's why politicos were shocked when three polls came out last fall showing Riordan running ahead of Davis. In the latest statewide Field poll, Davis is the only politician whose approval rating did not rise after September 11. As one long-time political player remarked, ``Gray Davis has no personal relationship with the voters.'' That matters a lot in a media-saturated state like California, particularly for a governor trying to get re-elected in tough times.
Davis's weak leadership in California's electricity crisis seems to have cost him dearly. As did the governor's ill-prepared warning last fall that terrorists were threatening to attack several major California bridges. Federal authorities downplayed the credibility of the threats. The warning caused serious economic damage here in the Bay Area. And worst of all, the governor announced no contingency plan. ``The first question people asked was, `What are we supposed to do?''' columnist Phil Matier recalled. ``Davis had no answer.''
California is famous for its right-wing Republicans (think former Gov. Ronald Reagan) and left-wing Democrats (think former Gov. Jerry Brown). Suppose Riordan wins the March 5 primary. He's a moderate Republican. And Davis is a centrist Democrat. Not many big differences between them. Democrats dissatisfied with Davis -- and there is no shortage of them here in the overwhelmingly Democratic San Francisco Bay area -- would have no trouble switching to Riordan.
That's why the race for governor is likely to get personal. And nasty. In fact, it already is. An article in the San Francisco Chronicle last month revealed that when Riordan was mayor of Los Angeles, he threatened to cut off surplus power to the rest of the state unless L.A. got its money up front. Now where could that information have come from?
Congressman Gary Condit is also on the March 5 primary ballot. Condit faces a tough challenge from state assemblyman Dennis Cardoza, who once worked for Condit. House Democratic leaders in Washington are remaining neutral in the race. Last month, California Rep. Nancy Pelosi, the newly elected House Democratic whip, created a stir when she released a statement saying, ``I endorsed Gary for re-election a long time ago.'' This from a staunch women's rights supporter?
Indeed, she had endorsed Condit -- along with a dozen of his conservative colleagues in the ``Blue Dog'' Democratic caucus -- last spring. In return, the Blue Dogs supported Pelosi for whip. Her statement went on to say, ``I have not spoken to any Member encouraging them to support Gary. . . . Condit's re-election is a matter between him and his constituents.''
Nevertheless, Pelosi got so much flak for her endorsement that she ended up withdrawing it last week. After Condit issued a statement asking his fellow Democrats to ``take no role in his campaign.'' No one here believes Condit will win the primary, and some expect him to drop out of the race before March 5. Which may be why his opponent has not raised or spent much money. Why should he? Cardoza's campaign ran for months on every network last summer.
Also on the March 5 California primary ballot: Proposition 45, which would allow state legislators facing term limits to serve for an additional four years -- if 20 percent of the voters sign a petition and if they get re-elected. Proposition 45 would be a major reversal for the term limits movement that was so hot ten years ago.
The latest Field poll shows 50 percent of California voters supporting Prop 45 and 37 percent opposed. But all three Republican primary candidates for governor have come out against it. And there's no race likely to draw a heavy Democratic turnout on March 5. If the measure fails -- as expected -- look for John Burton, the term-limited state senate president, and Willie Brown, the term-limited mayor of San Francisco, to try to switch positions.
Which is ironic because one of the main reasons the term limits movement got started
here in California in 1990 was that it looked like the only way to end Willie Brown's
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