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Jewish World Review Sept. 13 , 2000 / 12 Elul, 5760
Is Bashar Wimping Out?
http://www.jewishworldreview.com --
WHATEVER happened to Hafez Assad's little
boy, Bashar?
When the Syrian dictator died last June, it was
Bashar, a former London-based eye doctor and
Assad's youngest son, who was named official
heir and quickly "elected" Syria's new president. Hopes ran high
that the Western-educated Bashar would make some serious
changes in his long-suffering country's economic and political
landscape.
"Bashar will modernize the economy and open Syria to the West,"
said some experts. The most hopeful predicted that Assad Jr.
would facilitate limited democracy and break the 52-year
stalemate that has prevented peace with neighboring Israel and
cost Syria billions.
No one expected overnight miracles. Hafez Assad ruled Syria with
a blood-drenched fist for more than 25 years and the country was
tightly set in his ways. If change were to come, 34-year-old
Bashar a shy, inexperienced politician would have to move
carefully.
But Bashful Bashar is proving overly cautious and if anything, is
repeating some of the same disastrous mistakes that his father
made.
The Syrian economy, once almost completely dependent on
long-gone Soviet aid, creeps closer to death's door. Syrian Gross
Domestic Product rose last year by barely 1%, and its gross
capital formation is in a free-fall decline (e.g. housing starts are
down by almost a third and unemployment has risen to 15%).
With little cash rolling in, the infrastructure is in deep trouble and
Syria hasn't even begun to repay its old debts to the United States
and Germany of about $1 billion.
Bashar keeps promising socioeconomic progress and there is
an ambitious plan to liberalize the economy and pull in foreign
investment. But local bureaucracy remains ridiculously excessive,
and there's no serious move toward privatization.
Instead, he's done what his father would have done: He's
strengthened the public sector, the main source of Syrian
inefficiency, waste and corruption, and raised by 25% the salaries
of Syria's most privileged class those who work in government
and the armed forces, the folks on whose good will he is politically
dependent.
On the peace front, there's been no sign of any movement toward
negotiations with the Israelis. Even after Israel withdrew from
Lebanon last July, Bashar made no move to reduce Syrian support
for Iranian-controlled Hezbollah, nor did he do anything to stop or
damage the operational capacity of other terrorist groups
operating out of the Syrian-influenced regions of Lebanon.
Murderous gangs like Hamas and the Palestinian Jihad continue to
be headquartered in Damascus.
Personally, I was hoping to see Bashar show up at the United
Nations Millennium Summit. It would have been the perfect
opportunity for him to strut his stuff, to meet and talk with
President Clinton and other Western leaders and maybe, just
maybe, even confab discreetly with Israel's Ehud Barak.
Instead, Bashar Assad remained isolated at home, just as his
father would have. Perhaps he feared some of his rivals, like his
evil Uncle Rifaat, would grab power while he was away. Perhaps
he's waiting for the West to come to him.
But it doesn't work that way. Assad's Lebanese neighbors have
just elected a government that's less than enthusiastic about Syrian
influence. He should take the hint. No one expects Syria to
disavow completely any interest in Lebanon, but perhaps the time
has come for Syria to understand that the Lebanese want to run
their own lives. It's going to require some creative thinking.
It's time for Bashful Bashar to show some strength and be his own
man, and show Syria and the world that he's more than just
daddy's little
By Richard Z. Chesnoff
JWR contributor and veteran journalist
Richard Z. Chesnoff is a senior correspondent at US News
And World Report and a columnist at the NY Daily News. His latest book is Pack of Thieves: How Hitler & Europe
Plundered the Jews and Committed the Greatest Theft in History.
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