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Jewish World Review / Oct. 19, 1998 /29 Tishrei, 5759
Paul Greenberg
Another retreat: weakness invites aggression
IRAQ'S SADDAM HUSSEIN.
North Korea's Kim Jong Il.
Cambodia's Hun Sen.
And now it's Serbia's Slobodan Milosevic.
One after the other, the world's aggressors have caught on to
this administration's foreign policy of huff-and-puff. They've
broken agreements, subjugated their own people or those of
another nation, and gotten away with it.
When the West finally loses patience and mobilizes its forces,
the aggressor may promise to keep the peace, or even sign a
worthless agreement. But he may be only biding his time. The
first descriptions of the latest agreement with Serbia indicate
that it's happening again: A dictator is promising to take one
step back so he can take two forward later.
Serbia has agreed to withdraw its forces from Kosovo, where
tens of thousands of Albanians have fled across the nearest
border after the usual massacres. It's a pattern familiar from
the vivisection of Bosnia, which went on for years before the
West finally acted.
Once again the West has decided on a show of force in lieu
of force. In place of a clear policy, it's sending people into
harm's way. Whether in Cambodia or Iraq, Bosnia or Kosovo,
aggression still pays. That seems to be the lesson that
Washington's wafflers have taught the world's dictators. Again.
Until it becomes clear that our own national security is
jeopardized when aggression goes undeterred, Washington
may continue to paper over the danger with these worthless
agreements. Which is just fine with American public opinion.
It's still asleep.
Isolationism may go by some other name in this decade, like
multilateralism, but it has regained its popularity. A
semblance of peace may be all that's necessary to keep
Washington and other Western capitals from realizing that
they must impose peace in Europe, or Europe will impose war
on them. That continent has been the cradle of world wars
since the 18th Century, and there's no telling what monsters
Europe will yet birth unless Washington wakes up and
leads.
Despite all its tough talk and internationalist rhetoric, this
administration continues to retreat whenever and wherever
confronted by aggression abroad. And in the Nineties,
aggression has many faces: One day it's Kim Jong Il developing
a nuclear capacity in North Korea, despite his earlier pledge
to forswear such weapons. The next, it's Iraq's Saddam
Hussein acquiring toxic weapons and the missiles to deliver
them anywhere in the Middle East. And now Serbia's
Slobodan Milosevic is lighting another Balkan powderkeg in
Kosovo, Belgrade's restive and mainly Albanian province.
It could be the 1930s again. It's as if Americans have forgotten
how aggressors think, and how useless their promises are.
They all seem to follow Molotov's dictum: "Our ideology
stands for offensive operations when possible, and if not, we
wait.'' And when the West turns its back, as it has for so long
in Kosovo, peace will be the first casualty.
Unless the West sends a clear signal that offensive operations
will not pay, then the aggressors will not wait long to resume
the offensive. And the world will grow even more dangerous.
A few isolated air strikes will no longer do the trick; a
consistent, committed policy in the Balkans will be necessary.
And there's no sign of one in Washington or any other
Western capital. It's all ad-hoc expedients, redesigned from
crisis to crisis.
The atmosphere grows pre-war, and still Washington remains
in a state of suspended animation, just going through the
motions while a paralyzed president performs mainly
ceremonial functions. Whatever Congress decides to do, Bill
Clinton has already impeached himself. The loss of moral
authority in Washington grows palpable, and the world is not
safer for it. The world needs a strong America, and America
needs a strong presidency. Instead, American foreign policy
has been going wobbly for years, and the presidency will
emerge from the Clinton Years considerably weakened and
definitely besmirched.
This is no way to keep the peace; it's a sure way to invite
uncertainty, then instability, then war. See the steady collapse
of peace and security in Kosovo over the past several years.
Richard Holbrooke is one heckuva trouble-shooter, but he's
no substitute for a foreign policy. Only if it were no longer
necessary to send him to a different foreign capital every few
months could the agreements he negotiates really be
proclaimed a success.
Can anyone now recall the euphoria of 1989, the year the
Berlin Wall came tumbling down, and the Soviet Union
began to implode? The hope, the exuberance, the sense of a
second chance opening for the world .... all that seems but a
dim memory a decade later. And still Washington sleeps,
awakening now and then only to posture.
One reason the West will not and perhaps cannot project its
power is that it no longer has that much power to project.
Consider the neglect that this administration has lavished on
the armed forces of the United States, which are now
stretched dangerously thin. Year after year, deep cuts in
military strength have been made to achieve the semblance
of a balanced budget. But if the peace is lost, any savings will
prove illusory.
The watchword of American foreign policy used to be Peace
Through Strength. Now not all the administration's claims of
success can mask its weakness, its indecision, and its
willingness to settle for promises instead of deeds.
Washington now tends to declare victory, not achieve it. And
around the globe, instability thrives on America's weakness.
Aggressors can smell
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