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Jewish World Review
December 31, 2013
/ 28 Teves, 5774
A dismal year in politics, for Republicans and Democrats alike
By
Michael Gerson
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
It was a year in which the left, in implementing Obamacare, showed its worst face: overconfident, coercive, economically irrational and incompetent. The whole enterprise of technocratic planning will henceforth be shadowed by three numbers: three, 500 million and six. Three years to prepare the launch of HealthCare.gov. About half a billion dollars spent on contractors. And six people (according to an internal memo) signed up the first day. It was also a year in which the right, in the government shutdown, showed its worst face: angry, fractious, ideological and uninterested in governing. “They pushed us into this fight to defund Obamacare and to shut down the government,” House Speaker John Boehner later complained. “Most of you know, my members know, that wasn’t exactly the strategy that I had in mind.” When is the last time a congressional leader publicly admitted being railroaded by an irrational political faction? In both of these cases — the Obamacare launch and conservative attempts to defund the program — there were clear signs of trouble ahead. The software and the strategy were obviously flawed, like ice too thin to take the required weight. But politics and ideology compelled smart people to strap on skates and attempt their doomed salchows. This led to an extraordinary spectacle in the fall. The central appeals of two great political parties were discredited at the same time: health-care politics as a new governing majority, and anti-government populism as the wave of the future. Neither worked out as planned. So what emerges from these ideological ruins? Perhaps a centrist governing coup, in which the Obama administration and congressional leaders plot immigration reform, measures to encourage economic mobility and major health-care reform revisions? Not likely. While 2013 did end with a budget deal, it was the result of political exhaustion, not ideological innovation. The politics of 2014 leading up to the midterm elections will probably be dominated by two holdover trends from 2013.
First, the travails of implementing Obamacare will continue, with unexpectedly high premium and deductible costs, restricted doctor networks and small-business plan cancellations that affect millions. The conditions of exchange systems in various states will vary radically — some will be relatively healthy, others will be catastrophically underpopulated and have risky insurance pools. Many Americans, of course, will benefit from provisions of the Affordable Care Act. But the disastrous launch of Obamacare has created a narrative of failure, leading to the natural selection of press stories consistent with that assumption.
The central problem of Obamacare will not yield to technical or rhetorical solutions. President Obama sold it to Americans as a plan with no losers. But it is a redistribution program, creating both winners and losers. And many of the losers in Obamacare consider themselves middle class. This realization may eventually lead a number of elected Democrats to favor serious revisions. The second trend is an outgrowth of the first. The problems of Obamacare are likely (perversely) to delay any serious ideological repositioning of the Republican Party. The argument will be: “Why take any risk of dividing the GOP with, say, an immigration reform push, or a health-reform alternative, when Democrats are in the process of self-destructing?” Republicans have a serious prospect of retaining control of the House and regaining control of the Senate in November — assuming that tea party challenges don’t knock off some of their stronger Senate candidates. The generic congressional ballot is increasingly favorable to Republicans. It is the probability of losing elections that forces parties to creatively alter their appeal. The failures of Obamacare, in short, reinforce Republican ideological timidity, at least at the congressional level. The central problem for the GOP is a split political personality. For congressional Republicans, ideological timidity is a reasonable, short-term electoral strategy. For Republicans concerned about retaking the presidency in 2016, it is wholly insufficient. There is an urgent need to reposition the party among minorities, women and the young. Pointing and laughing at the failures of Obamacare will not be a sufficient governing vision. This is, perhaps, the best a Republican can hope for in 2014: to benefit from the failures of Obamacare, while incubating the ideas that move the GOP beyond reflexive negativity.
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Previously:
12/24/13 The war on Christians
12/17/13 The exhausted parties: What have politicians accomplished?
12/06/13 My numbered days: My cancer diagnosis gave me the clarity of mortality
11/22/13 C.S. Lewis: Rescuing desire
11/19/13 Former bridge burner starting to build them to save GOP
11/15/13 Entrepreneurs of outrage: Fear and anger sweep up policy issues
11/01/13 What Obamacare has cost Dems
10/29/13 In 6 months will this column prove prophetic?
10/22/13 Obamacare repair: It could become a crisis for modern liberalism
10/04/13 The GOP should speed Obamacare's demise. Right now, it's not
10/03/13 The tea party's revolt
09/30/13 The end of compromise?
09/17/13 A state of paralysis: Congress, Obama need to act
09/12/13 In full retreat on Syria
09/10/13 Obama misunderstands wartime leadership
09/09/13 Rallying around a gesture
08/30/13 The preacher and the politician
08/27/13 Is Obama's oft-cited best-case scenario in Syria still even possible?
08/23/13 Jordan's wary welcome
08/20/13 The hardest goodbye: A parent letting go
08/16/13 For GOP, opposition shouldn't only mean obstruction
08/13/13 Crazy, humane determination creates breakthrough for millions
08/09/13 America's bubble of complacency
07/01/11 The GOP's ideal America
03/04/11 The last doughboy and the emergence of a great nation
03/01/11 Conservatives shouldn't be so surprised by freedom
02/22/11 The progression of pain
02/18/11 The seriousness primary
02/11/11 Do Egypt's protests mean American decline?
01/27/11 No-bend Obama
01/21/11 Two good arguments for civility -- and passion -- in politics
01/11/11 Obama's staff changes give him a second chance
01/11/11 Is Arizona shooting an empty search for meaning?
01/07/11 WikiLeaks gives dangerous ammunition to a tyrant
01/04/11 Michael Vick: Symbol of the second chance
12/28/10 Social Security reform is the answer to Obama's problems --- and the nation's
12/21/10 When foreign policy realism isn't realistic
12/17/10 When it comes to politics, Obama's ego keeps getting in the way
11/26/10 Libs resort to conspiracy theories to explain Obama's problems
11/19/10 With Holder at the helm, detainee policy is a disaster
11/12/10 Blue-state budget crises spell even more trouble for Dems
10/19/10 Obama the snob
10/12/10 Seeds of victory in Afghanistan
10/05/10 Believers' remorse
10/04/10 Pound-foolish on national security
09/28/10 Babylon on the Potomac
09/27/10 Our reluctant commander in chief
09/21/10 Blue strongholds are becoming Democratic graveyards
09/17/10 For the GOP, a bittersweet brew from the Tea Party
09/15/10: Insanity's great enablers
09/13/10: The lost communicator
09/08/10: Will 2010 midterms be 1994 all over again?
09/01/10: Obama's economic wandering
08/27/10: Miracles from abroad
08/25/10: Address these issues in order to strengthen the Tea Party
08/20/10: The lost promise of Barack Obama
07/23/10: Obama's greatest nightmare
02/04/09: The Reality of Innocence
01/07/09: The Risks in Obama's Ambitions
12/31/08: Support Obama Will Need
06/13/08: Prince Charles, Organic Conservatism Icon
06/11/08: No longer a bankrupt political joke but still overshadowed
04/23/08: McCain's anger management
04/10/08: A Country for Old Men
03/06/08: Does the America Need a Hug?
03/06/08: Obama's First 100 Days
02/29/08: Words Aren't Cheap
02/22/08: He Said, They Said
02/20/08: Dying silently in Zimbabwe
02/15/08: Hillary's Unappealing Path
02/13/08: NATO's Afghan Stumbles
02/08/08: Why McCain Endures
02/06/08: One surge that led to another
02/01/08: In North Korea, Process Over Progress
01/30/08: Compassionate to the end
© 2008, WPWG
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