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Jewish World Review Oct 20, 2011 / 22 Tishrei, 5772 In the firmness and cheerfulness of his conservatism, Cain is the black Reagan By Jack Kelly
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
A man half the country hadn't heard of a month ago is the leading Republican candidate for president, according to three opinion polls last week.
Businessman Herman Cain led former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 27 percent to 23 percent in an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll published last Thursday.
Mr. Cain led Mr. Romney, 30-22, in a PPP survey that same day. A Rasmussen poll showed Mr. Cain and Mr. Romney tied at 29 percent.
In an Economist/YouGov poll published Friday, Mr. Cain led Mr. Romney 30-18. In a Zogby poll published Monday, it was Cain 45, Romney 21.
This is remarkable, because only 51 percent of respondents in a Gallup poll Sept. 27 recognized Mr. Cain's name. If these numbers hold, we'll witness something unprecedented in the history of politics.
The race has been volatile. First, Rep, Michele Bachmann, R-Minn, then Texas Gov. Rick Perry soared like eagles, then plummeted like stones.
Most in the political and journalistic establishments expect Mr. Cain to be no more than the latest "Not Romney" to flare up and fizzle out.
Mr. Cain is functioning merely as "a parking place for conservatives who harbor reservations about the previous flavors of the month," said Democratic analyst Charles Cook.
He "seems to me to be somebody who was wandering through the emergency ward and was mistaken for a serious player, and a doctor gave him a tremendous adrenalin shot," said GOP analyst Matthew Dowd.
His weaknesses in fundraising and campaign organization will be Mr. Cain's undoing, Mr. Cook thinks. In the three months ending Sept. 30, the Cain campaign spent just $1.9 million, compared to $12 million for Mr. Romney and $5.9 million for Rep. Bachmann.
Though his current polling numbers are dreadful, his $15 million bankroll means that Mr. Cain's supporters eventually will drift back to him, Gov. Perry thinks.
But once you've convinced most Republicans you aren't smart enough to be president, it's hard to come back, no matter how much money you have. Gov. Perry's candidacy is in "serious jeopardy," Mr. Dowd thinks.
"Romney exudes intelligence and competence, and every debate makes him look more presidential and more like someone who would be a very strong favorite to win a general election," Mr. Cook said.
Each day brings Mr. Romney more endorsements from establishment Republicans, more campaign contributions from Wall Street. His nomination is "inevitable," many pundits say.
But the dogs just don't like the dog food. Rasmussen Thursday was the first time Mr. Romney registered more than 25 percent support in any poll.
"As a politician, (Romney) impresses, but he doesn't inspire or connect," said National Review Editor Rich Lowry.
Mr. Romney "showed a certain versatility of conviction over the years," said columnist George Will.
Conservative qualms about Mr. Romney are unlikely to be assuaged by news reports last week that President Barack Obama based Obamacare on Romneycare in Massachusetts, and that Gov. Romney contemplated hiring radical environmentalist John Holdren, now Mr. Obama's science advisor.
Still, polls indicate Mr. Romney would clobber Gov. Perry in a head to head matchup. With voting likely to begin in December, and Gov. Perry mired in single digits in the early primary states, Mr. Romney's nomination is all but guaranteed if the race narrows to a choice between those two. Only Herman Cain can beat him.
Some think Mr. Cain will falter when his views come under greater scrutiny, and gaps in his knowledge -- especially on foreign policy -- are exposed.
That hasn't happened yet. On "Meet the Press" Sunday, it was host David Gregory who seemed embarrassingly ill-informed.
Mr. Cain is written off because he lacks the political experience of those who gave us a mammoth national debt and 9 percent unemployment. But the establishment may underestimate him.
Republicans who were born on second base often sound defensive about the free enterprise system that has produced so much wealth for them and us. Herman Cain's is the un-hypenated conservatism of the self made man. An inspiring speaker who can think on this feet, he articulates conservative principles better than any of the other candidates.
And he does so with a smile. Mr. Cain is the most likable of the GOP candidates, Gallup says. "Everybody liked Herman because his personality was so open and friendly and not abrasive," said a colleague at the Kansas City Fed.
In the firmness and cheerfulness of his conservatism, Herman Cain is the black Reagan. That may be enough to overcome Mr. Romney's logistical advantages.
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JWR contributor Jack Kelly, a former Marine and Green Beret, was a deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan administration.
© 2011, Jack Kelly |
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