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Jewish World Review August 16, 2011 / 16 Menachem-Av, 5771 Dems assumed wrong and will likely pay accordingly By Jack Kelly
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
When it's clear you've made a mistake, it's usually wise to admit it. The unwillingness of Democrats to do this could cost them dearly in the next election.
Democrats have made a lot of mistakes in the last few years, none bigger than Obamacare.
Democrats knew Obamacare was unpopular. That's why they passed it on a sneaky parliamentary maneuver in the dead of night. But Democrats assumed Americans would like Obamacare better once they learned more about it.
"Once reform passes, the tangible benefits Americans will realize will trump the fear-mongering rhetoric opponents are stoking today," President Barack Obama's pollster, Joel Benenson, wrote on the eve of the vote.
Democrats assumed wrong. Opposition to Obamacare has hardened. Respondents in a Rasmussen poll Aug. 8 favored repeal, 54 percent to 40 percent. A plurality has favored repeal every month since Obamacare passed.
No wonder. Every promise President Obama made about his health care plan has proved to be false.
*Democrats used accounting tricks to pretend Obamacare would reduce the deficit, but they've been exposed.
The Congressional Budget Office only "scores" spending plans for 10 years, so cost-saving measures were implemented right away, but big ticket items were delayed until 2014. After 2020, Obamacare costs explode.
The "doc fix" to Medicare was spun off in a separate bill so it wouldn't be counted as part of the cost of Obamacare. Had it been, CBO estimates this provision alone would cause Obamacare to boost the deficit by $59 billion in the first ten years.
Obamacare assumes $15 trillion in cuts to Medicare, which almost certainly won't be made, since they would all but eliminate critical care for the elderly.
Obamacare is likely to cause private employers to dump health insurance plans for up to 78 million workers, according to a McKinsey & Co. study. If so, the cost of public subsidies may be about three times higher than the administration estimates.
Administration estimates ignored the cost of insuring most dependents of workers in the public system. If they were included, this would boost the cost of Obamacare by $500 billion over ten years if the administration's assumptions of the number of workers in the system were correct, $1.5 trillion if McKinsey & Co. is correct.
*Democrats said Obamacare would reduce the cost of health insurance to consumers, but CBO estimated it will increase the cost of private health insurance premiums by about $2,100 per family per year.
*If you like your (private) health insurance plan, you can keep it, Mr. Obama promised. But you won't be able to if your company is one of the 30 percent of private employers the McKinsey report indicates will be induced or forced to drop their plans. One in eight small businesses has had, or expects to have, its health insurance plan terminated, according to the National Federation of Independent Business.
But Obamacare will:
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Increase by about 50 percent the shortage of physicians, according to the Association of American Medical Colleges.
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Substantially increase the cost of Medicaid to states, according to the Department of Health and Human Services.
Here's the statistic that should terrify Democrats: Before Obamacare passed, the private sector was adding jobs at a rate of 67,000 a month. Since it passed, that average has plunged to 6,500 jobs a month. Uncertainty about Obamacare is the chief reason why businesses aren't hiring.
If unemployment in November of 2012 is about as high as it is today, Democrats are likely to suffer their worst defeat since before the Great Depression. And if Obamacare remains in effect, there is no reason to suppose unemployment will drop.
The ruling Friday by the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals in Atlanta that its central provision, the individual mandate, is unconstitutional will not enhance the popularity of Obamacare. But it gives Democrats the opportunity to admit their mistake, and fix it.
If Democrats were to join with Republicans to repeal Obamacare, they'd have to eat a lot of crow. But crow tastes better when unemployment is 8 percent or lower than when it is 9 percent or higher.
Their pride probably will keep Democrats from climbing into the life raft the 11th Circuit provided them. They'll regret it. As the famous political handicapper King Solomon observed (Proverbs 16:18): "pride goeth…before a fall."
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JWR contributor Jack Kelly, a former Marine and Green Beret, was a deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan administration. © 2009, Jack Kelly
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