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Jewish World Review May 27, 2005 / 18 Iyar, 5765 Retirement revolution By Dick Morris
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
The most recent poll by Scott Rasmussen shows how attracted Americans are to the idea of choice in Social Security reform — and offers a clue to the Bush administration on how to rescue its major legislative initiative.
Retirement is a tremendously personal decision, reflecting an individual's priorities, physical condition and goals in life — "one size" can't begin to "fit all." But, as grownups, we understand that we must pay more if we want to retire earlier and less if we want to postpone it.
So Rasmussen asked voters if they wanted "to determine their own retirement age. Those who want to retire earlier could pay extra taxes into the system and begin collecting benefits sooner. Those who would rather defer the time when they begin collecting benefits could pay less in taxes today." The results showed that 52 percent of Americans supported the idea; only 31 percent were opposed. Rasmussen noted that almost 60 percent of those now employed favored the idea.
Bush's proposed reform of Social Security is in mortal danger because of the opposition of those over the age of 50. But those over 65 (13 percent of the electorate) are opposed to any reform and well beyond the reach of any proposal, voters in the critical 50-64 age group back the idea of voluntarily selecting one's retirement age. By 49 percent to 33 percent, they support the idea even though they oppose Bush's overall Social Security plan by 55-30.
What would workers choose? Higher taxes and earlier retirement or lower taxes and later retirement? Would most voters just cop out and back lower taxes? Not at all: 52 percent said that they'd pay more into the system now and seek to retire earlier, just 30 percent said they'd like to pay less and retire later.
Nineteen percent are workaholics who said they would like to pay even less and defer their retirement to the age of 75.
The younger workers were, the more they want to pay more and retire earlier. Sixty percent of those under the age of 30 wanted this option.
So a voluntary choice of retirement age could be a very, very good way to impose, in effect, a voluntary tax increase. By giving people a benefit — earlier retirement — and asking them to pay for it, we can do a lot to fortify the tottering Social Security system. On the other hand, we can also voluntarily cut the benefits of those who would like a later retirement, offering in return a reduced tax burden.
Ultimately, this proposal is likely to draw less opposition from those now over 65. People in this group — who oppose doing anything to Social Security, even if it doesn't affect them — are really fearful that any changes would weaken their lifeline and leave them bereft. So they view with suspicion any idea that would permit younger workers to divert some of their taxes to private investment accounts.
But they'd probably come around to support a plan that resulted in a net increase of revenues to the system, as the poll shows self-determination of one's retirement age would bring about.
Bush's Social Security plan is going nowhere. His inability to come up with a way to restore the system's fiscal stability undermines public acceptance of his privatization proposal. By adopting the pro-choice approach to retirement, he can get the process rolling again.
(Rasmussen's survey was conducted on May 18-22 with a national sample of 2,500 adults. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus two percentage points with a 95 percent level of confidence.)
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© 2005, Dick Morris
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