 |
|
The Kosher Gourmet by Megan Gordon With its colorful cache of purples and oranges and reds, COLLARD GREEN SLAW is a marvelous mood booster --- not to mention just downright delish
April 18, 2014
Rabbi Yonason Goldson: Clarifying one of the greatest philosophical conundrums in theology
John Ericson: Trying hard to be 'positive' but never succeeding? Blame Your Brain
The Kosher Gourmet by Julie Rothman Almondy, flourless torta del re (Italian king's cake), has royal roots, is simple to make, . . . but devour it because it's simply delicious
April 14, 2014
Rabbi Dr Naftali Brawer: Passover frees us from the tyranny of time
Eric Schulzke: First degree: How America really recovered from a murder epidemic
Georgia Lee: When love is not enough: Teaching your kids about the realities of adult relationships
Gordon Pape: How you can tell if your financial adviser is setting you up for potential ruin
Dana Dovey: Up to 500,000 people die each year from hepatitis C-related liver disease. New Treatment Has Over 90% Success Rate
Justin Caba: Eating Watermelon Can Help Control High Blood Pressure
April 11, 2014
Rabbi Hillel Goldberg: Silence is much more than golden
Susan Swann: How to value a child for who he is, not just what he does
Susan Scutti: A Simple Blood Test Might Soon Diagnose Cancer
Chris Weller: Have A Slow Metabolism? Let Science Speed It Up For You
April 9, 2014
Jonathan Tobin: Why Did Kerry Lie About Israeli Blame?
Samuel G. Freedman: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau
Jessica Ivins: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau
Matthew Mientka: How Beans, Peas, And Chickpeas Cleanse Bad Cholesterol and Lowers Risk of Heart Disease
April 8, 2014
Dana Dovey: Coffee Drinkers Rejoice! Your Cup Of Joe Can Prevent Death From Liver Disease
Chris Weller: Electric 'Thinking Cap' Puts Your Brain Power Into High Gear
April 4, 2014
Amy Peterson: A life of love: How to build lasting relationships with your children
John Ericson: Older Women: Save Your Heart, Prevent Stroke Don't Drink Diet
John Ericson: Why 50 million Americans will still have spring allergies after taking meds
Sarah Boesveld: Teacher keeps promise to mail thousands of former students letters written by their past selves
April 2, 2014
Dan Barry: Should South Carolina Jews be forced to maintain this chimney built by Germans serving the Nazis?
Frank Clayton: Get happy: 20 scientifically proven happiness activities
Susan Scutti: It's Genetic! Obesity and the 'Carb Breakdown' Gene
|
| |
Jewish World Review
CONGRATULATIONS: We just saved half a trillion dollars
By
Morgan Housel
| 
|
|
|
| |
|
JewishWorldReview.com |
You may not have noticed it, but the federal government just saved half a trillion dollars over the next decade. It's one of the biggest deficit reductions in history, and it made virtually no headlines.
Growth in health care costs -- the driver of effectively all long-term budget deficits -- is coming in much lower than expected. Part of that is likely due to the economy and the recession. But there's more to it than that. Cost growth began falling before the recession and has taken place in regions that escaped the recession without much pain. As Harvard health economist David Cutler said last year: "The recession just doesn't account for the numbers we're seeing. I think there's much more going on."
The effect this has on the federal budget is huge. Over the last 43 years, Medicare costs per beneficiary grew 2.7 percent faster than the broad economy. That trend has now reversed itself. Since 2009, costs per beneficiary have grown 1.3 percent slower than the overall economy, according to The New York Times.
Add it up, and "projected Medicare spending over the 2011-2020 period has fallen by more than $500 billion since late 2010," according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, which cites Congressional Budget Office data.
| RECEIVE LIBERTY LOVING COLUMNISTS IN YOUR INBOX … FOR FREE! |
| Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". HUNDREDS of columnists and cartoonists regularly appear. Sign up for the daily update. It's free. Just click here. |
|
The budget savings are even greater when you add in Medicaid spending. The Congressional Budget Office wrote in its latest budget outlook (emphasis mine):
"In recent years, health care spending has grown much more slowly both nationally and for federal programs than historical rates would have indicated. (For example, in 2012, federal spending for Medicare and Medicaid was about 5 percent below the amount that CBO had projected in March 2010.) In response to that slowdown, over the past several years, CBO has made a series of downward technical adjustments to its projections of spending for Medicaid and Medicare. From the March 2010 baseline to the current baseline, such technical revisions have lowered estimates of federal spending for the two programs in 2020 by about $200 billion -- by $126 billion for Medicare and by $78 billion for Medicaid, or by roughly 15 percent for each program."
If this keeps up, current forecasts of runaway long-term budget deficits melt quickly. Journalist Annie Lowrey noted last year: "If the growth in Medicare were to come down to a rate of only 1 percentage point a year faster than the economy's growth, the projected long-term deficit would fall by more than one-third."
Take all of this with an appropriate grain of salt. The fact that a past budget forecast was revised is a good reminder that the current budget forecast can be revised, too. But we too often forget that revisions can be a good thing. People might overlook positive surprises because virtually every budget forecast during the last decade brought worse news, falling deeper into the red.
But that isn't a law. In the early 1990s, budget forecasters were predicting deep deficits as far as the eye could see. By the late 1990s, the budget was in surplus -- something virtually no one predicted a few years prior. That's an extreme example, but it emphasizes that bad forecasts don't necessarily mean never-ending bad news. Good surprises can happen -- and it looks like we're seeing one right now.
Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here.
Interested in a private Judaic studies instructor — for free? Let us know by clicking here.
Comment by clicking here.
Morgan Housel, a columnist at The Motley Fool, is a two-time winner, Best in Business award, Society of American Business Editors and Writers and Best in Business 2012, Columbia Journalism Review.
Previously:
• End this crazy tax: It will boost the economy
• Medicare: A dangerously good deal
• Economic future looks bright
• The Biggest Threat to Your Portfolio (It's Not What You Think)
• Bond Market Bull Run dead at 30
© 2013 The Motley Fool. Distributed by Universal Uclick for UFS
|
