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Jewish World Review Jan 17, 2012/ 22 Teves, 5772 To GOPers: How to guarantee a defeat --- yours By Jack Kelly
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
Americans fear the re-election of President Barack Obama more than they do nuclear weapons in Iran, according to a New Year's poll taken by U.S. News & World Report.
The unemployment rate is 8.5 percent, higher than it was when President Obama took office (7.7 percent). Since 1960, only four presidents have gone before the voters with an unemployment rate of more than 7 percent. They were Gerald Ford in 1976 (7.8 percent); Jimmy Carter in 1980 (7.5 percent); Ronald Reagan in 1984 (7.2 percent), and George H.W. Bush in 1992 (7.4 percent). All but Reagan lost.
History suggests Republicans should have an advantage this November. How can they blow it?
First, don't nominate a top tier candidate. The GOP has half a dozen excellent and popular governors, and -- in Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin and Sens. Marco Rubio of Florida and Rob Portman of Ohio -- brilliant young talent in Congress. But they didn't run.
Those who are running are a former governor of Massachusetts; a former Speaker of the House; a former senator who got creamed when last he ran for re-election; a Texas governor who can't keep his foot out of his mouth, and an aging crank Congressman who likes the mullahs in Iran more than the U.S. military. A CBS poll Jan 9 indicated 58 percent of Republicans want more choices. So do I.
Second, exaggerate the shortcomings of those who are running. The candidates and their supporters have formed a circular firing squad, and are blasting away at each other. Their rivals, and some right-wing pundits, assert that if Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum were nominated, the republic would be imperiled.
They reach for any stick with which to beat each other. Mr. Gingrich and Rick Perry sounded like Occupy Wall Street protesters when they assailed Mitt Romney for his work at Bain Capital. They did themselves little good; GOP prospects in November much harm.
Perspective is needed. All these guys are flawed. But none is the devil. From the point of view of conservatives, the devil is the guy in the White House. The candidates should focus on exorcising him, not demonizing each other.
Third, don't nominate a conservative. Mr. Romney, the frontrunner, is more moderate than conservative. According to the conventional wisdom, this makes him more electable, because he can appeal to the center.
Recent Gallup polls say otherwise. According to a Jan. 12 poll, 41 percent of Americans call themselves conservatives; 35 percent moderates, 21 percent liberals. In a Jan. 9 poll, 31 percent of respondents said they are Democrats; 27 percent Republicans, 40 percent independents. Conservatives are much more popular than are Republicans. When Republicans water down conservativism, they diminish rather than enhance their appeal.
History agrees. Republicans who win presidential elections are those like Ronald Reagan who "paint with bold colors, not pale pastels." Mr. Romney is mostly pastels.
A moderate is the frontrunner in a conservative party chiefly because of the selfishness of the candidates to Mr. Romney's right. Only about a third of Republicans support him, but he leads because the remainder is split so many ways.
A candidate more conservative than Mitt Romney can be nominated only if all the Not Romneys save one drop out. But the candidates whose poor performances in Iowa and New Hampshire suggest they should have put personal ambition ahead of their professed principles.
The hour is late. If Mr. Romney wins the South Carolina primary Saturday (1/21), most pundits think he'll have a hammerlock on the nomination.
This could be premature. After South Carolina, only 65 of 2,286 delegates will have been selected, and because delegates in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina are chosen by proportional representation, Mr. Romney figures to have only around half of them. If among Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Rick Perry, those who finish second and third drop out, Mr. Romney still could have a fight on his hands.
A lengthy primary campaign would keep news media attention focused on the Republicans, which could be good for the GOP -- if the surviving candidates focus more of their fire on Mr. Obama, less on each other.
On the other hand, if Mr. Romney locks up the nomination early, presumably Mr. Gingrich and Mr. Perry will stop providing sound bites for Democrats to use in November.
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JWR contributor Jack Kelly, a former Marine and Green Beret, was a deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan administration.
© 2011, Jack Kelly |
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