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Tiny reptiles advancing robot design David Francis: How to Avoid an IRS Audit The Kosher Gourmet by Emma Christensen: These homemade energy bars (3 recipes) are far better workout fuel than commercial ones, packing power and taste February 6, 2012 Scott Peterson: Iran's top ayatollah: We're trumping the West Jonathan Tobin: Iran Threatens Israel With Destruction, But the New York Times Doesn't Hear It Jeffrey Fleishman: In newly democratic Egypt, tens of democracy activists jailed, to stand trial; their groups are 'threatening the stability of the homeland' Julie Deardorff : Researchers say antioxidants may not be that effective and could do more harm than good Philip Moeller: Where Smart Investors Put Their Money Mark Clayton: How did Anonymous hackers eavesdrop on FBI and Scotland Yard? The Kosher Gourmet by Joseph Erdos: Vegetable Frittata --- leftovers never tasted so scrumptious February 3, 2012 Rabbi Dr. Warren Goldstein: Living with ideals --- in reality Caroline B. Glick: Fool me twice Jonathan Tobin : Adelsonphobia Strikes in Nevada Caucus Edmund Sanders : Israeli official says Iran is creating missile that could reach East Coast of US Kimberly Palmer : 8 Ways to Get Ready for Retirement Now Victoria Kim: Immigrant-smuggling ring used black drivers to avoid racial profiling The Kosher Gourmet by Faith Durand: A quick cookie recipe: Hazelnut and Olive Oil Shortbread: Sweet, Nutty, and Savory February 2, 2012 Rabbi Yaakov Rosenblatt : Welcome Home, Governor Perry Jim Carney: Wrong number call may have saved her life Reza Kahlili : Ex-CIA spy in Iran's Revolutionary Guard: What Obama doesn't grasp about striking deals with Tehran Kelsey Sheehy : 5 Tips for Choosing an M.B.A. Concentration Rachel Koning Beals : Investors Increasingly Tap Social Media for Stock Tips Tina Susman: For woodchuck rescuer, every day is Groundhog Day The Kosher Gourmet by Leela Cyd Ross : Savory vegetable pie is a taste of European bistro with minimal effort and maximal flavor February 1, 2012 Nara Schoenberg: What to do when you've been dissed Michelle Malkin: First, They Came for the Catholics Brian Bennett: US officials see increasing threat of domestic attack from Iran Lisa M. Krieger: Possible breakthrough in preventing Alzheimer's Emily Brandon: How to Take Advantage of New 401(k) Fee Disclosures Susan Johnston: 5 Apps for Organizing Your Expenses at Tax Time The Kosher Gourmet by Mario Batali: The famed chef's Broccoli and White Bean Soup can easily be a lunch in itself, or a nice antipasto --- and is hard to mess up January 31, 2012 Paul Greenberg: Separation of Church and State works two ways Caroline B. Glick: Hamas and the Washington establishment Frank J. Gaffney Jr.: Uncle Sam is joining in efforts to crack down on Islamists' critics Danielle Kurtzleben: The 10 Worst Cities for Finding a Job Laura McMullen: 3 Tips to Overcome a Bad Grade in College The Kosher Gourmet by Faith Durand: Orzo dish mixes plump, chewy grains with caramelized onions, garlic, mushrooms and sweet potato January 30, 2012 Rabbi Avi Shafran: Blind faith and physics Paul Richter and Ramin Mostaghim: Misreading Teheran's limits -- deadly and economically devastating as they may be -- is a risk administration, Europe seem willing to take Suzanne Bohan: Warning: Nap-deprived tots missing more than sleep, study finds Meg Handley: Banks Revamping Rewards Programs to Woo Customers Menachem Wecker: 3 Do's and Don'ts for Healthy Studying in College The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington: Butternut Squash Gratin with Tomato Fondue is a combination of the sweet and creamy January 27, 2012 Rabbi Berel Wein: What Pharaoh can teach us sophisticates about being stubborn Caroline B. 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Erika Bolstad: Black conservatives gather to talk about gaining strength The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington: This luscious fruit bread marries toasted pecans with juicy pears. Perfect with a pot of tea January 23, 2012 Melissa Dribben: Jewish voters to play a key role in Florida's Republican primary Stephanie Hanes: Toddlers to tweens: Relearning how to play Jack Kelly : Still ignoring history Rachel Koning Beals: Awkward Questions You Must Ask Your Financial Adviser Jordan Rau: In quest to grow, Catholic hospital system will announce this morning its break from church Ali Safi: U.S. envoy gives Taliban terms for peace talks The Kosher Gourmet by Emma Christensen: Spanakopita is a golden pie that manages to be healthy yet still taste indulgent January 19, 2012 Clifford D. May: How terrorists lose their stigma Suzanne Bohan: Vanquishing social anxieties without drugs Lisa Fernandez and Sean Webby: In alternative lifestyle, domestic violence means men as victims and women being abusers Danielle Kurtzleben: The 10 Best Cities for Finding a Job The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington: Three bean soup with gremolata January 18, 2012 Edward I. Koch: Why the Crocodile Tears, Hillary? David G. Savage: Supreme Court to Principals: You have been warned George Friedman of Stratfor: Iran, the U.S. and the Strait of Hormuz Crisis Jason Koebler: 'Holy Grail' of Flu Vaccines by Next Year Alex M. Parker: The Off-the-Radar Congressional Targets of 2012 The Kosher Gourmet by Susan Russo: Got soft apples? Make Apple-Maple Walnut Breakfast Quinoa January 17, 2012 Frank J. Gaffney Jr.: No-kidding red lines: U.S. response to an Iranian nuke may be bluster, but Israel's won't be David G. 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Jewish World Review June 2, 2008 / 29 Iyar 5768 A New Electoral Map: In the General Election, McCain Leads in Electoral Votes Against Both Clinton and Obama By Michael Barone http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | I've been writing, repeatedly, that the voting alignments in this general election could look quite different from those that prevailed in 2004 and 2000 (and, for that matter, 1996). And that the voting alignments could be quite different depending on whether Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee. The Clinton campaign is now arguing, in a lengthy memo, that its candidate would run stronger against John McCain than Obama would, and Gallup shows Clinton running stronger than Obama in primary/caucus states won by Clinton and running about the same as Obama in primary/caucus states won by Obama. National elections are decided not by popular vote but by electoral votes. So I decided to take a look at all the statewide polls, conveniently gathered by Pollster.com, that have been conducted starting in February. That seemed to be the best time to start, since McCain effectively clinched the Republican nomination on Super Tuesday, February 5 (though Mike Huckabee continued campaigning until March 4) and Obama became considerably better known after his victories in January and on Super Tuesday. There are some problems with this procedure. Polls are plentiful in some states (Ohio, Pennsylvania) and sparse in others. There is just one poll, conducted in February, in South Carolina, which shows McCain with improbably low leads over the two Democrats; in Nebraska and North Dakota, the results are heavily influenced by February SurveyUSA polls, part of its 50-state polling, that showed Obama statistically tied with McCain. These look like outliers to me, but they could be indications that voting alignments are changing even more than I think possible. I calculated the average percentage margin for McCain over (or under) Obama and Clinton in each state and compared it with George W. Bush's percentage margin over (or under) John Kerry in the 2004 general election. I used whole integers: no value in the spurious precision of tenths of a percentage in analyzing the results of polls with a considerable margin of error. I have used pluses to indicate McCain leads and to indicate an increase in the McCain margin over the Bush margin and minuses to indicate Democratic leads and to indicate decreases in the McCain margin over the Bush margin. If you find that offensive, please just mentally reverse the pluses or minuses. Here are the results for the McCain-Obama and the McCain-Clinton races, with the Bush percentage margin first, the McCain percentage margin second and the increase or the decrease of the Republican margin third. McCain-Obama   McCain-Clinton EAST Bush Margin % McCain Margin % Republican Margin %   EAST Bush Margin % McCain Margin % Republican Margin % CT -10 -17 -7   CT -10 -5 +5 DE -7 -9 -2   DE -7 -5 +2 DC -80 no data no data   DC no data no data no data ME -9 -12 -3   ME -9 -8 +1 MD -13 -13 0   MD -13 -8 +5 MA -25 -5 +20   MA -25 -15 +10 NH -1 +0 +1   NH -1 +3 +4 NJ -7 -6 +1   NJ -7 -6 +1 NY -18 -10 +8   NY -18 -13 +5 PA -2 -1 +1   PA -2 -4 -2 RI -21 -13 +8   RI -21 -14 +7 VT -20 -27 -7   VT -21 -15 +6                   MIDWEST Bush Margin % McCain Margin % Republican Margin %   MIDWEST Bush Margin % McCain Margin % Republican Margin % IL -10 -25 -15   IL -10 -11 -1 IN +21 +4 -17   IN +21 +7 -14 IA +1 -8 -9   IA +1 -7 -8 KS +25 +13 -12   KS +25 +17 -8 MI -3 0 +3   MI -3 +2 +5 MN -3 -10 -7   MN -3 -3 0 MO +7 +6 -1   MO +7 +1 -6 NE +33 +14 -19   NE +33 +27 -6 ND +27 +2 -25   ND +27 +19 -8 OH +2 +1 -1   OH +2 -3 -5 SD +21 +10 -11   SD +21 +18 -3 WI 0 -3 -3   WI 0 +4 +4                   WEST Bush Margin % McCain Margin % Republican Margin %   WEST Bush Margin % McCain Margin % Republican Margin % AK +26 +6 -20   AK +26 +20 -6 AZ +10 +14 +4   AZ +10 +22 +12 CA -10 -13 -3   CA -10 -11 -1 CO +5 -2 -7   CO +5 +10 +5 HI -9 -30 -21   HI -9 -4 +5 ID +38 +13 -25   ID +38 +35 -3 MT +20 +6 -14   MT +20 +19 -1 NV +3 -2 -5   NV +3 +4 +1 NM +1 -4 -5   NM +1 +1 0 OR -4 -8 -4   OR -4 +2 +6 UT +45 +35 -10   UT +45 +41 -4 WA -7 -9 -2   WA -7 0 +7 WY +40 +19 -21   WY +40 +33 -7                   SOUTH Bush Margin % McCain Margin % Republican Margin %   SOUTH Bush Margin % McCain Margin % Republican Margin % AL +26 +24 -2   AL +26 +19 -7 AR +10 +22 +12   AR +10 -8 -18 FL +5 +8 +3   FL +5 0 -5 GA +17 ab+13 -4   GA +17 +17 0 KY +20 +26 +6   KY +20 +6 -14 LA +14 +15 +1   LA +14 +8 -6 MS +20 +14 -6   MS +20 +12 -8 NC +13 +6 -7   NC +13 +9 -4 OK +31 +32 +1   OK +31 +19 -12 SC +17 +3 -14   SC +17 +6 -11 TN +14 +18 +4   TN +14 +8 -6 TX +23 +7 -16   TX +23 +9 -14 VA +8 +2 -6   VA +8 +7 -1 WV +13 +18 +5   WV +13 -5 -18 I am going to assume that states where the margin is 6 percent or less will be in play; this may be unrealistic in some cases, but at least it's a common standard. I'll put the number of electoral votes in parentheses. East. Pennsylvania (21) clearly remains in play whichever Democrat is nominated, but Clinton appears a little stronger there. In New Hampshire (4), it's the other way around: Obama is a bit stronger. New Jersey (15) shows a 6 percent margin for both Democrats; this could be in play (but will the Republicans have the money for New York City TV?). Massachusetts (12) looks to be in play if Obama is nominated, and as counterintuitive as that may seem, we might remember that Ronald Reagan carried it twice. Connecticut (7) and Delaware (3) look to be in play against Clinton. Industrial Midwest. Some of the results are easier to believe than others. Ohio (20) is in play either way, but Clinton looks stronger than Obama. Indiana (11), astonishingly, looks to be close if Obama is nominated, less close if Clinton is (Evan Bayh for vice president, anyone?). Missouri (11) looks fairly solid for McCain against Obama (who won the primary there by 1 percent, carrying only five of 115 counties) but very much up for grabs against Clinton. Michigan (17), the nation's No. 1 unemployment state, doesn't behave as one might expect. George W. Bush lost it twice, but McCain runs even against Obama and leads by 2 percentage points against Clinton. The unpopularity of Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm's tax increase may have something to do with this. Great Plains and Rocky Mountains. In this region, as well as in Alaska (3) and Hawaii (4), Obama is clearly a much stronger candidate than Clinton. The question is how many electoral votes can be put into play. The numbers in Minnesota (10) suggest that it will be a lock for Obama but up for grabs for Clinton. Wisconsin (10) is close for both candidates, but McCain leads Clinton and trails Obama. The numbers in Iowa (7) suggest that this state, exceedingly close in 2000 and 2004, may be out of reach for McCain against either Democrat. The Great Plains states look out of reach for the Democrats, unless you believe the two February and March polls in North Dakota (3), which show a close race. The Rockies are a different story. Obama is clearly well positioned to win Colorado (9), which doesn't look like a target state if Clinton is nominated. Montana (3) and Alaska (3) may be within reach for Obama. Oregon (7) and Washington (11) look within reach for McCain against Clinton, but against Obama he runs farther behind than George W. Bush did when these two slipped off his target list. Hawaii (4) looks like a target state against Clinton but not against Hawaii native Obama. The South. Obama trails in every southern state but by tantalizingly narrow margins in the South Atlantic states of Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), and, if you believe one February poll, South Carolina (8). Clinton is notably less competitive in each. However, Clinton currently is tied with McCain in Florida (27), while Obama runs 8 percentage points behind; Florida may end up not being a target state, as it was in 1988 when George H. W. Bush won 61 percent of the vote there. Obama is clearly a hard sell for the elderly Jewish voters who piled up big margins for the Gore-Lieberman ticket and slightly smaller ones for Kerry-Edwards. Against Obama, McCain runs better than Bush in states that might be called Greater Appalachia: West Virginia (5), Kentucky (8), Tennessee (11), Alabama (9), Arkansas (6), and Oklahoma (7). In contrast, Clinton carries Arkansas and West Virginia. The biggest question mark here is Texas. Bush carried his home state by 23 percent, but McCain leads Obama by only 7 percent and Clinton by only 9 percent. The Democrats could use their money advantage here to buy TV time in the second-largest state and give the McCain campaign the hard choice of risking 34 electoral votes or playing defense in what everyone earlier thought was a safe Republican state. The overall picture. I will leave it to the Clinton and Obama campaigns (and to commenters) to make the case that one Democrat or the other is stronger overall against McCain. Overall, these poll results show McCain leading Obama by 281 to 257 electoral votes and McCain leading Clinton by 277 to 261 electoral votes. But many states are exceedingly close, including some that were not target states in 2000 or 2004. So let's separate the states according to whether the margin is 6 percent or less or 7 percent or more. McCain-Obama   McCain-Clinton McCain > 6% McCain < 7% Obama < 7% Obama > 6%   McCain > 6% McCain < 7% Clinton < 7% Clinton > 6% 173 108 77 180   191 86 112 149         And let's conclude by listing the states likely to be target states (defined, again, as states where the margin is 6 percent or less) that were not on the final target lists in 2004. In the McCain-Obama race: Alaska (3), Colorado (9), Indiana (11), Massachusetts (12), Missouri (11), Montana (3), New Jersey (15), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), South Carolina (8), and Virginia (13). That's 103 electoral votes. In the McCain-Clinton race: Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Kentucky (8), Missouri (11), New Jersey (15), Oregon (7), South Carolina (8), Virginia (13), Washington (11), and West Virginia (5). That's 92 electoral votes. And only a few states are on both lists: Missouri, New Jersey, South Carolina (improbably), and Virginia. That old map of red states and blue states looks pretty obsolete now. Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here. BARONE'S LATEST The New Americans   Now, more than ever, the melting pot must be used to keep America great. Barone attacks multiculturalism and anti-American apologists--but he also rejects proposals for building a wall to keep immigrants out, or rounding up millions of illegals to send back home. Rather, the melting pot must be allowed to work (as it has for centuries) to teach new Americans the values, history, and unique spirit of America so they, too, can enjoy the American dream.. Sales help fund JWR. JWR contributor Michael Barone is a columnist at U.S. News & World Report. Comment by clicking here. Michael Barone Archives © 2006, US News & World Report

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