February 13, 2012 Binyamin Rose: Back to the Bunker: How a life-risking act by a Christian family during the Holocaust saved a family and built a thriving community a world away Danielle Kurtzleben: The Peace Process is over. Finally Susan Johnston: The Myth of Economic Inequality Menachem Wecker: Business Schools Teach Real Estate Despite Troubled Housing Market The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington: Farro Salad: An ancient grain is now new again as the base of a tasty tangle of flavorsome vegetables, chickpeas and salami February 10, 2012 Rabbi Nathan Lopes Cardozo: The biblical case against small-mindedness involved diminishing His precious prophet Caroline B. Glick: The Peace Process is over. Finally Lisa M. Krieger: Man with defibrillator demands access to his own heart's information David G. Savage: Why activists may not be in a hurry to have High Court rule on alternative marriage Rachel Koning Beals: Gen X Women Continue to Shrink Gender Investing Gap The Kosher Gourmet by Faith Durand: Who Says You Can't Make Restaurant Favorites at Home?: MANGO AND STICKY RICE February 9, 2012 Jeff Strickler: An argument a day keeps the divorce away, they say Clifford D. May: CAIR's Crusade against The Third Jihad Melissa Healy: Study finds jolt to the brain boosts memory Laura McMullen: 10 Least Expensive Public Schools for Out-of-State Students Kimberly Palmer: How to actually enjoy -- relaxing, financially -- your vacation Emily Brandon: 10 Necessities for a Great Retirement Spot The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington: Winter Squash and Red Swiss Chard Risotto is Colorful Cozy Cold Weather Fare (includes detailed dos and don'ts) February 8, 2012 Rivy Poupko Kletenik: Tree hostility: The auspicious history of the evolution of Tu B'Shevat Steven Emerson: Planting Trees is Racist?! Warren Richey: Why momentous Prop. 8 ruling might not satisfy gay-rights groups Anne Applebaum: Russia's Potemkin democracy Menachem Wecker: Though Controversial, LL.M.'s Can Lead to Specialized Legal Jobs Emily Brandon: 10 Necessities for a Great Retirement Spot The Kosher Gourmet byDana Velden: Going to the bother of making soup? You know it better be good. This CREAM OF TOMATO SOUP certainly is! And it's a cinch to make, too (Includes techinques and serving secrets) February 7, 2012 Kathleen Hennessey and Christi Parsons: Obama not worried that birth-control move will hurt his re-election chances with Catholics, other faithful Caroline B. Glick: Obama's rhetorical storm Frank J. Gaffney, Jr.: Caught off-guard? President's Super Bowl interview with Matt Lauer gives those who need a reason not to vote for him, a darn good one Suzanne Bohan: Leaping lizards! Tiny reptiles advancing robot design David Francis: How to Avoid an IRS Audit The Kosher Gourmet by Emma Christensen: These homemade energy bars (3 recipes) are far better workout fuel than commercial ones, packing power and taste February 6, 2012 Scott Peterson: Iran's top ayatollah: We're trumping the West Jonathan Tobin: Iran Threatens Israel With Destruction, But the New York Times Doesn't Hear It Jeffrey Fleishman: In newly democratic Egypt, tens of democracy activists jailed, to stand trial; their groups are 'threatening the stability of the homeland' Julie Deardorff : Researchers say antioxidants may not be that effective and could do more harm than good Philip Moeller: Where Smart Investors Put Their Money Mark Clayton: How did Anonymous hackers eavesdrop on FBI and Scotland Yard? The Kosher Gourmet by Joseph Erdos: Vegetable Frittata --- leftovers never tasted so scrumptious February 3, 2012 Rabbi Dr. Warren Goldstein: Living with ideals --- in reality Caroline B. Glick: Fool me twice Jonathan Tobin : Adelsonphobia Strikes in Nevada Caucus Edmund Sanders : Israeli official says Iran is creating missile that could reach East Coast of US Kimberly Palmer : 8 Ways to Get Ready for Retirement Now Victoria Kim: Immigrant-smuggling ring used black drivers to avoid racial profiling The Kosher Gourmet by Faith Durand: A quick cookie recipe: Hazelnut and Olive Oil Shortbread: Sweet, Nutty, and Savory February 2, 2012 Rabbi Yaakov Rosenblatt : Welcome Home, Governor Perry Jim Carney: Wrong number call may have saved her life Reza Kahlili : Ex-CIA spy in Iran's Revolutionary Guard: What Obama doesn't grasp about striking deals with Tehran Kelsey Sheehy : 5 Tips for Choosing an M.B.A. Concentration Rachel Koning Beals : Investors Increasingly Tap Social Media for Stock Tips Tina Susman: For woodchuck rescuer, every day is Groundhog Day The Kosher Gourmet by Leela Cyd Ross : Savory vegetable pie is a taste of European bistro with minimal effort and maximal flavor February 1, 2012 Nara Schoenberg: What to do when you've been dissed Michelle Malkin: First, They Came for the Catholics Brian Bennett: US officials see increasing threat of domestic attack from Iran Lisa M. Krieger: Possible breakthrough in preventing Alzheimer's Emily Brandon: How to Take Advantage of New 401(k) Fee Disclosures Susan Johnston: 5 Apps for Organizing Your Expenses at Tax Time The Kosher Gourmet by Mario Batali: The famed chef's Broccoli and White Bean Soup can easily be a lunch in itself, or a nice antipasto --- and is hard to mess up January 31, 2012 Paul Greenberg: Separation of Church and State works two ways Caroline B. Glick: Hamas and the Washington establishment Frank J. Gaffney Jr.: Uncle Sam is joining in efforts to crack down on Islamists' critics Danielle Kurtzleben: The 10 Worst Cities for Finding a Job Laura McMullen: 3 Tips to Overcome a Bad Grade in College The Kosher Gourmet by Faith Durand: Orzo dish mixes plump, chewy grains with caramelized onions, garlic, mushrooms and sweet potato January 30, 2012 Rabbi Avi Shafran: Blind faith and physics Paul Richter and Ramin Mostaghim: Misreading Teheran's limits -- deadly and economically devastating as they may be -- is a risk administration, Europe seem willing to take Suzanne Bohan: Warning: Nap-deprived tots missing more than sleep, study finds Meg Handley: Banks Revamping Rewards Programs to Woo Customers Menachem Wecker: 3 Do's and Don'ts for Healthy Studying in College The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington: Butternut Squash Gratin with Tomato Fondue is a combination of the sweet and creamy January 27, 2012 Rabbi Berel Wein: What Pharaoh can teach us sophisticates about being stubborn Caroline B. Glick: Obama: Of course I intend to prevent a nuclear holocaust . . . in a few months Yochonon Donn: In liberal New York City, fervently-Orthodox Jews may soon be getting a district to call their own Jeannine Stein: An inflated ego and thinking you're 'all that' doesn't just make others sick of you, it can make you ill Katy Hopkins: New budget rules may affect how much money you get for college The Kosher Gourmet by Emma Christensen: Barigoule is a light and tangy dish of artichoke hearts stewed in white wine January 26, 2012 Jonathan Tobin: Newt the closet anti-Semite? Ed Koch: To the New York Times, calling for the murder of Jews by those capable of having their incitement taken seriously isn't news Martin Peretz: One Year Later: The Failure of the Arab Spring Rachel Koning Beals: Need to Know info before investing in Muni Bonds this year Jeannine Stein: Mental illness struck one in five U.S. adults in 2010: Report The Kosher Gourmet by Leela Cyd Ross: Curried Coconut Carrot Soup. Need we say more? January 25, 2012 Andrew Silow-Carroll: Speak politics the Jewish way! Richard Simon: House passes two bills endorsing the use of religious symbols at military memorials Fred Weir: Putin: Multiethnic Russia cannot survive as a US-style 'melting pot'; must find its own way Susan Johnston: 5 Sneaky Coupon Strategies Consumers Should Watch Out For Menachem Wecker: Adding an extra 'm' -- marriage -- to that M.B.A. Melissa Healy: Harnessing shrooms' magic The Kosher Gourmet by Hilary Meyer: 3 Secrets Leave All of the Comfort in this 'Comfort Food', but few of the Calories January 24, 2012 Carol Clark: The price of your soul: How your brain decides whether to 'sell out' Caroline B. Glick: America lost most in 'Arab Spring'. Sadly, many voters still don't grasp the extent Warren Richey: Drug criminal scores win in GPS ruling from conservative-leaning high court Jada A. Graves: 6 Careers to Watch in 2012 Jason Koebler: Who Should Have Access to Student Records? Erika Bolstad: Black conservatives gather to talk about gaining strength The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington: This luscious fruit bread marries toasted pecans with juicy pears. Perfect with a pot of tea January 23, 2012 Melissa Dribben: Jewish voters to play a key role in Florida's Republican primary Stephanie Hanes: Toddlers to tweens: Relearning how to play Jack Kelly : Still ignoring history Rachel Koning Beals: Awkward Questions You Must Ask Your Financial Adviser Jordan Rau: In quest to grow, Catholic hospital system will announce this morning its break from church Ali Safi: U.S. envoy gives Taliban terms for peace talks The Kosher Gourmet by Emma Christensen: Spanakopita is a golden pie that manages to be healthy yet still taste indulgent January 19, 2012 Clifford D. May: How terrorists lose their stigma Suzanne Bohan: Vanquishing social anxieties without drugs Lisa Fernandez and Sean Webby: In alternative lifestyle, domestic violence means men as victims and women being abusers Danielle Kurtzleben: The 10 Best Cities for Finding a Job The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington: Three bean soup with gremolata January 18, 2012 Edward I. Koch: Why the Crocodile Tears, Hillary? David G. Savage: Supreme Court to Principals: You have been warned George Friedman of Stratfor: Iran, the U.S. and the Strait of Hormuz Crisis Jason Koebler: 'Holy Grail' of Flu Vaccines by Next Year Alex M. Parker: The Off-the-Radar Congressional Targets of 2012 The Kosher Gourmet by Susan Russo: Got soft apples? Make Apple-Maple Walnut Breakfast Quinoa January 17, 2012 Frank J. Gaffney Jr.: No-kidding red lines: U.S. response to an Iranian nuke may be bluster, but Israel's won't be David G. Savage: They sued their principals after slandering them online --- now the cases are headed to the Supreme Court Sharon Palmer, R.D.: Believe it or not, your cuppa joe offers potential health perks David Francis: Where to Invest in 2012: With stocks expected to rebound, opportunity abounds for investors Confronting the Car Nerds on their home turf --- the Detroit Auto Show (VIDEO; 3 minutes) The Kosher Gourmet by Emma Christensen: Eleventh-Hour Freezer Pasta, Made Interesting: Ravioli with romesco sauce; Tortellini salad with apples and walnuts January 13, 2012 Chief Rabbi Dr. Warren Goldstein: Expansion Of Spirit (PROFOUND yet UPLIFTING) Ben Lynfield: Israeli lawmakers move to annex Jewish Judea, one museum at a time Rachel Koning Beals:Top Complaints About Daily Deal Sites --- how to avoid missteps Alexia Elejalde-Ruiz: Thriving through touch: Gentle massage helps older people with low mobility improve in mind and body The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington: Braised Oxtail Stew with Olives January 12, 2012 Warren Richey: Landmark Supreme Court ruling a 'resounding win' for religious groups Warren Richey: Supreme Court says no to new rule on eyewitness testimony Ken Dilanian and David S. Cloud: In secret study, CIA and 15 other U.S. intelligence agencies warn Obama against leaving Afghanistan too soon John Fauber : Statins found to raise diabetes risk in postmenopausal women Katy Hopkins : Consider This Before You Pay for an Online Degree Menachem Wecker : 4 Technology Must Haves for Online Students The Kosher Gourmet by Joseph Erdos: This mushroom and barley soup has an intense -- almost nutty -- flavor that mixes robust with Middle East. It has creaminess without cream January 11, 2012 Shari Roan: Millions of atrial fibrillation sufferers at risk for devastating, but preventable, stroke Tom Hussain: Pakistan -- recipient of more than $21 billion in civilian and military aid -- speeds pursuit of Iranian pipeline, defying US David G. Savage: High court signals it won't be loosening TV's 'indecency' rules Stephen Ceasar: Oklahoma's Islamic law amendment can't go into effect, court rules Rachel Koning Beals: Should You Invest in Bond Funds or Individual Issues? The Kosher Gourmet by Faith Durand : Colorful Lentil Salad with Walnuts and Herbs January 10, 2012 Reza Kahlili: From an ex-CIA spy: US must exploit new split in Iran's Revolutionary Guard Karen Kaplan: Study: Nicotine replacement products ineffective when used in real-life situations Paul Bedard: Study: Is Fox Too Balanced? Rachel Koning Beals: Is it Time to Move into Homebuilder Stocks? The Kosher Gourmet by Carolyn Malcoun: Brothy Chinese Noodles Half the Sodium (and More Than Twice the Fiber!) January 9, 2012 Caroline B. Glick: The land-for-peace hoax (MUST-READ/FORWARD/SHARE) Michael Doyle: Put through legal hell over dream home, couple fought back hard --- all the way to Supreme Court Bonnie Miller Rubin: The new college-admission essay: Short and tweet(ish) Rachel Koning Beals: Why Mid-Caps Stand Out in This Slow-Growth Stretch The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington: Cumin seed roasted cauliflower with salted yogurt, mint and pomegranate seeds January 6, 2012 Jonathan Rosenblum: Greatness --- and those who sully it Clifford D. May: The Historian, the Diplomat, and the Spy Paul Bedard: Study: Obama Is Late Night's Biggest Joke Rachel Koning Beals: An Investing Guide to Closed-End Funds The Kosher Gourmet by Faith Durand: Slow Cooker Peppered Beef Shank in Red Wine

Jewish World Review Feb. 26, 2009 / 2 Adar 5769 Wall Street Became Over-Dependent on Numbers, Lost Touch With Reality By Michael Barone http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | Several economic blogs have pointed me to this excellent article by Felix Salmon in Wired on the Gaussian copula devised by mathematician David X. Li in 2000. This was a mathematical formula to quantify risk that "was adopted by everybody from bond investors and Wall Street banks to ratings agencies and regulators. And it became so deeply entrenched—and was making people so much money—that warnings about its limitations were largely ignored." It turns out that the formula underestimated the risk of many homeowners defaulting on mortgages at the same time. A method which was useful for insurance actuaries—for estimating the likelihood that a person whose spouse had died would die earlier than the actuarial tables would lead one to expect—turned out to be unreliable. Li's formula was used to price collateral debt obligations (CDOs). I'll let Salmon tell how things played out: Li's copula function was used to price hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of CDOs filled with mortgages. And because the copula function used CDS prices to calculate correlation, it was forced to confine itself to looking at the period of time when those credit default swaps had been in existence: less than a decade, a period when house prices soared. Naturally, default correlations were very low in those years. But when the mortgage boom ended abruptly and home values started falling across the country, correlations soared. Bankers securitizing mortgages knew that their models were highly sensitive to house-price appreciation. If it ever turned negative on a national scale, a lot of bonds that had been rated triple-A, or risk-free, by copula-powered computer models would blow up. But no one was willing to stop the creation of CDOs, and the big investment banks happily kept on building more, drawing their correlation data from a period when real estate only went up. Oops. Salmon is careful to note that Li is not necessarily responsible for the misuse of his Gaussian copula. But he also notes that he's moved to Beijing. I see a pattern here: the attempt to see quantitative patterns in human behavior can be misleading unless it is supplemented by acquaintance with the qualitative facts on the ground. Li's Gaussian copula was just irresistibly attractive to Wall Street bond traders, because it expressed in one easily comprehensible number the risk they thought they were taking. But a more accurate estimate of that risk could come from actually taking a look at the properties that were being mortgaged. In a previous post, I linked to Michael Lewis's marvelous Conde Nast Portfolio article on "The End of Wall Street." He recounts how a trader named Steve Eisman came to the conclusion around the beginning of 2007 that mortgage backed securities and CDOs based on them were hugely overvalued. He came to that conclusion in part because of his acquaintance with facts on the ground. More generally, the subprime market tapped a tranche of the American public that did not typically have anything to do with Wall Street. Lenders were making loans to people who, based on their credit ratings, were less creditworthy than 71 percent of the population. Eisman knew some of these people. One day, his housekeeper, a South American woman, told him that she was planning to buy a townhouse in Queens. "The price was absurd, and they were giving her a low-down-payment option-ARM," says Eisman, who talked her into taking out a conventional fixed-rate mortgage. Next, the baby nurse he'd hired back in 1997 to take care of his newborn twin daughters phoned him. "She was this lovely woman from Jamaica," he says. "One day she calls me and says she and her sister own five townhouses in Queens. I said, 'How did that happen?'?" It happened because after they bought the first one and its value rose, the lenders came and suggested they refinance and take out $250,000, which they used to buy another one. Then the price of that one rose too, and they repeated the experiment. "By the time they were done," Eisman says, "they owned five of them, the market was falling, and they couldn't make any of the payments." His head trader Danny Moses made similar observations. Moses actually flew down to Miami and wandered around neighborhoods built with subprime loans to see how bad things were. "He'd call me and say, 'Oh my God, this is a calamity here,'?" recalls Eisman. All that was required for the BBB bonds to go to zero was for the default rate on the underlying loans to reach 14 percent. Eisman thought that, in certain sections of the country, it would go far, far higher. I have been a consumer of political and demographic numbers from the time my parents bought the 1951 edition of the World Book Encyclopedia, which contained results from the 1950 Census. I was overjoyed; previously the reference books I had access to only contained results from the 1940 Census. Naturally I started typing lists showing how the populations of cities and states had changed in that 10-year interval. None of the other kids were interested in this stuff at all—I was seven at the time—but I committed the populations of the nation's largest cities in the 1950 Census down to the last digit to memory, and I still remember them today. That was the beginning of what has turned out to be a career, in political consulting and journalism, based in large part in knowing and analyzing the numbers. But as I have grown older, I have come increasingly to believe that the numbers are just clues. Sometimes misleading clues. There's a reality on the ground that you're trying to understand, and the numbers help you make sense about it, help you develop theories of why things are happening or changing as they are. But you can become over-dependent on numbers, as Wall Street became over-dependent on David X. Li's Gaussian copula, and end up being really, really wrong about reality. And you have to constantly keep that in mind. That's why I made a point, after co-authoring the first edition of The Almanac of American Politics, of traveling to all 50 states and all 435 congressional districts—which I accomplished when I landed at Ted Stevens International Airport in Anchorage, Alaska, in February 1998. It's just one way of keeping in touch with the facts on the ground. Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here. BARONE'S LATEST The New Americans   Now, more than ever, the melting pot must be used to keep America great. Barone attacks multiculturalism and anti-American apologists--but he also rejects proposals for building a wall to keep immigrants out, or rounding up millions of illegals to send back home. Rather, the melting pot must be allowed to work (as it has for centuries) to teach new Americans the values, history, and unique spirit of America so they, too, can enjoy the American dream.. Sales help fund JWR. JWR contributor Michael Barone is a columnist at U.S. News & World Report. Comment by clicking here. Michael Barone Archives © 2006, US News & World Report

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