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February 13, 2012
Binyamin Rose: Back to the Bunker: How a life-risking act by a Christian family during the Holocaust saved a family and built a thriving community a world away
Danielle Kurtzleben: The Peace Process is over. Finally
Susan Johnston: The Myth of Economic Inequality
Menachem Wecker: Business Schools Teach Real Estate Despite Troubled Housing Market
The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington: Farro Salad: An ancient grain is now new again as the base of a tasty tangle of flavorsome vegetables, chickpeas and salami
February 10, 2012
Rabbi Nathan Lopes Cardozo: The biblical case against small-mindedness involved diminishing His precious prophet
Caroline B. Glick: The Peace Process is over. Finally
Lisa M. Krieger: Man with defibrillator demands access to his own heart's information
David G. Savage: Why activists may not be in a hurry to have High Court rule on alternative marriage
Rachel Koning Beals: Gen X Women Continue to Shrink Gender Investing Gap
The Kosher Gourmet by Faith Durand: Who Says You Can't Make Restaurant Favorites at Home?: MANGO AND STICKY RICE
February 9, 2012
Jeff Strickler: An argument a day keeps the divorce away, they say
Clifford D. May: CAIR's Crusade against The Third Jihad
Melissa Healy: Study finds jolt to the brain boosts memory
Laura McMullen: 10 Least Expensive Public Schools for Out-of-State Students
Kimberly Palmer: How to actually enjoy -- relaxing, financially -- your vacation
Emily Brandon: 10 Necessities for a Great Retirement Spot
The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington: Winter Squash and Red Swiss Chard Risotto is Colorful Cozy Cold Weather Fare (includes detailed dos and don'ts)
February 8, 2012
Rivy Poupko Kletenik: Tree hostility: The auspicious history of the evolution of Tu B'Shevat
Steven Emerson: Planting Trees is Racist?!
Warren Richey: Why momentous Prop. 8 ruling might not satisfy gay-rights groups
Anne Applebaum: Russia's Potemkin democracy
Menachem Wecker: Though Controversial, LL.M.'s Can Lead to Specialized Legal Jobs
Emily Brandon: 10 Necessities for a Great Retirement Spot
The Kosher Gourmet byDana Velden: Going to the bother of making soup? You know it better be good. This CREAM OF TOMATO SOUP certainly is! And it's a cinch to make, too (Includes techinques and serving secrets)
February 7, 2012
Kathleen Hennessey and Christi Parsons: Obama not worried that birth-control move will hurt his re-election chances with Catholics, other faithful
Caroline B. Glick: Obama's rhetorical storm
Frank J. Gaffney, Jr.: Caught off-guard? President's Super Bowl interview with Matt Lauer gives those who need a reason not to vote for him, a darn good one
Suzanne Bohan: Leaping lizards! Tiny reptiles advancing robot design
David Francis: How to Avoid an IRS Audit
The Kosher Gourmet by Emma Christensen: These homemade energy bars (3 recipes) are far better workout fuel than commercial ones, packing power and taste
February 6, 2012
Scott Peterson: Iran's top ayatollah: We're trumping the West
Jonathan Tobin: Iran Threatens Israel With Destruction, But the New York Times Doesn't Hear It
Jeffrey Fleishman: In newly democratic Egypt, tens of democracy activists jailed, to stand trial; their groups are 'threatening the stability of the homeland'
Julie Deardorff : Researchers say antioxidants may not be that effective and could do more harm than good
Philip Moeller: Where Smart Investors Put Their Money
Mark Clayton: How did Anonymous hackers eavesdrop on FBI and Scotland Yard?
The Kosher Gourmet by Joseph Erdos: Vegetable Frittata --- leftovers never tasted so scrumptious
February 3, 2012
Rabbi Dr. Warren Goldstein: Living with ideals --- in reality
Caroline B. Glick: Fool me twice
Jonathan Tobin : Adelsonphobia Strikes in Nevada Caucus
Edmund Sanders : Israeli official says Iran is creating missile that could reach East Coast of US
Kimberly Palmer : 8 Ways to Get Ready for Retirement Now
Victoria Kim: Immigrant-smuggling ring used black drivers to avoid racial profiling
The Kosher Gourmet by Faith Durand: A quick cookie recipe: Hazelnut and Olive Oil Shortbread: Sweet, Nutty, and Savory
February 2, 2012
Rabbi Yaakov Rosenblatt : Welcome Home, Governor Perry
Jim Carney: Wrong number call may have saved her life
Reza Kahlili : Ex-CIA spy in Iran's Revolutionary Guard: What Obama doesn't grasp about striking deals with Tehran
Kelsey Sheehy : 5 Tips for Choosing an M.B.A. Concentration
Rachel Koning Beals : Investors Increasingly Tap Social Media for Stock Tips
Tina Susman: For woodchuck rescuer, every day is Groundhog Day
The Kosher Gourmet by Leela Cyd Ross : Savory vegetable pie is a taste of European bistro with minimal effort and maximal flavor
February 1, 2012
Nara Schoenberg: What to do when you've been dissed
Michelle Malkin: First, They Came for the Catholics
Brian Bennett: US officials see increasing threat of domestic attack from Iran
Lisa M. Krieger: Possible breakthrough in preventing Alzheimer's
Emily Brandon: How to Take Advantage of New 401(k) Fee Disclosures
Susan Johnston: 5 Apps for Organizing Your Expenses at Tax Time
The Kosher Gourmet by Mario Batali: The famed chef's Broccoli and White Bean Soup can easily be a lunch in itself, or a nice antipasto --- and is hard to mess up
January 31, 2012
Paul Greenberg: Separation of Church and State works two ways
Caroline B. Glick: Hamas and the Washington establishment
Frank J. Gaffney Jr.: Uncle Sam is joining in efforts to crack down on Islamists' critics
Danielle Kurtzleben: The 10 Worst Cities for Finding a Job
Laura McMullen: 3 Tips to Overcome a Bad Grade in College
The Kosher Gourmet by Faith Durand: Orzo dish mixes plump, chewy grains with caramelized onions, garlic, mushrooms and sweet potato
January 30, 2012
Rabbi Avi Shafran: Blind faith and physics
Paul Richter and Ramin Mostaghim: Misreading Teheran's limits -- deadly and economically devastating as they may be -- is a risk administration, Europe seem willing to take
Suzanne Bohan: Warning: Nap-deprived tots missing more than sleep, study finds
Meg Handley: Banks Revamping Rewards Programs to Woo Customers
Menachem Wecker: 3 Do's and Don'ts for Healthy Studying in College
The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington: Butternut Squash Gratin with Tomato Fondue is a combination of the sweet and creamy
January 27, 2012
Rabbi Berel Wein: What Pharaoh can teach us sophisticates about being stubborn
Caroline B. Glick: Obama: Of course I intend to prevent a nuclear holocaust . . . in a few months
Yochonon Donn: In liberal New York City, fervently-Orthodox Jews may soon be getting a district to call their own
Jeannine Stein: An inflated ego and thinking you're 'all that' doesn't just make others sick of you, it can make you ill
Katy Hopkins: New budget rules may affect how much money you get for college
The Kosher Gourmet by Emma Christensen: Barigoule is a light and tangy dish of artichoke hearts stewed in white wine
January 26, 2012
Jonathan Tobin: Newt the closet anti-Semite?
Ed Koch: To the New York Times, calling for the murder of Jews by those capable of having their incitement taken seriously isn't news
Martin Peretz: One Year Later: The Failure of the Arab Spring
Rachel Koning Beals: Need to Know info before investing in Muni Bonds this year
Jeannine Stein: Mental illness struck one in five U.S. adults in 2010: Report
The Kosher Gourmet by Leela Cyd Ross: Curried Coconut Carrot Soup. Need we say more?
January 25, 2012
Andrew Silow-Carroll: Speak politics the Jewish way!
Richard Simon: House passes two bills endorsing the use of religious symbols at military memorials
Fred Weir: Putin: Multiethnic Russia cannot survive as a US-style 'melting pot'; must find its own way
Susan Johnston: 5 Sneaky Coupon Strategies Consumers Should Watch Out For
Menachem Wecker: Adding an extra 'm' -- marriage -- to that M.B.A.
Melissa Healy: Harnessing shrooms' magic
The Kosher Gourmet by Hilary Meyer: 3 Secrets Leave All of the Comfort in this 'Comfort Food', but few of the Calories
January 24, 2012
Carol Clark: The price of your soul: How your brain decides whether to 'sell out'
Caroline B. Glick: America lost most in 'Arab Spring'. Sadly, many voters still don't grasp the extent
Warren Richey: Drug criminal scores win in GPS ruling from conservative-leaning high court
Jada A. Graves: 6 Careers to Watch in 2012
Jason Koebler: Who Should Have Access to Student Records?
Erika Bolstad: Black conservatives gather to talk about gaining strength
The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington: This luscious fruit bread marries toasted pecans with juicy pears. Perfect with a pot of tea
January 23, 2012
Melissa Dribben: Jewish voters to play a key role in Florida's Republican primary
Stephanie Hanes: Toddlers to tweens: Relearning how to play
Jack Kelly : Still ignoring history
Rachel Koning Beals: Awkward Questions You Must Ask Your Financial Adviser
Jordan Rau: In quest to grow, Catholic hospital system will announce this morning its break from church
Ali Safi: U.S. envoy gives Taliban terms for peace talks
The Kosher Gourmet by Emma Christensen: Spanakopita is a golden pie that manages to be healthy yet still taste indulgent
January 19, 2012
Clifford D. May: How terrorists lose their stigma
Suzanne Bohan: Vanquishing social anxieties without drugs
Lisa Fernandez and Sean Webby: In alternative lifestyle, domestic violence means men as victims and women being abusers
Danielle Kurtzleben: The 10 Best Cities for Finding a Job
The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington: Three bean soup with gremolata
January 18, 2012
Edward I. Koch: Why the Crocodile Tears, Hillary?
David G. Savage: Supreme Court to Principals: You have been warned
George Friedman of Stratfor: Iran, the U.S. and the Strait of Hormuz Crisis
Jason Koebler: 'Holy Grail' of Flu Vaccines by Next Year
Alex M. Parker: The Off-the-Radar Congressional Targets of 2012
The Kosher Gourmet by Susan Russo: Got soft apples? Make Apple-Maple Walnut Breakfast Quinoa
January 17, 2012
Frank J. Gaffney Jr.: No-kidding red lines: U.S. response to an Iranian nuke may be bluster, but Israel's won't be
David G. Savage: They sued their principals after slandering them online --- now the cases are headed to the Supreme Court
Sharon Palmer, R.D.: Believe it or not, your cuppa joe offers potential health perks
David Francis: Where to Invest in 2012: With stocks expected to rebound, opportunity abounds for investors
The Kosher Gourmet by Emma Christensen: Eleventh-Hour Freezer Pasta, Made Interesting: Ravioli with romesco sauce; Tortellini salad with apples and walnuts
January 13, 2012
Chief Rabbi Dr. Warren Goldstein: Expansion Of Spirit (PROFOUND yet UPLIFTING)
Ben Lynfield: Israeli lawmakers move to annex Jewish Judea, one museum at a time
Rachel Koning Beals:Top Complaints About Daily Deal Sites --- how to avoid missteps
Alexia Elejalde-Ruiz: Thriving through touch: Gentle massage helps older people with low mobility improve in mind and body
The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington: Braised Oxtail Stew with Olives
January 12, 2012
Warren Richey: Landmark Supreme Court ruling a 'resounding win' for religious groups
Warren Richey: Supreme Court says no to new rule on eyewitness testimony
Ken Dilanian and David S. Cloud: In secret study, CIA and 15 other U.S. intelligence agencies warn Obama against leaving Afghanistan too soon
John Fauber : Statins found to raise diabetes risk in postmenopausal women
Katy Hopkins : Consider This Before You Pay for an Online Degree
Menachem Wecker : 4 Technology Must Haves for Online Students
The Kosher Gourmet by Joseph Erdos: This mushroom and barley soup has an intense -- almost nutty -- flavor that mixes robust with Middle East. It has creaminess without cream
January 11, 2012
Shari Roan: Millions of atrial fibrillation sufferers at risk for devastating, but preventable, stroke
Tom Hussain: Pakistan -- recipient of more than $21 billion in civilian and military aid -- speeds pursuit of Iranian pipeline, defying US
David G. Savage: High court signals it won't be loosening TV's 'indecency' rules
Stephen Ceasar: Oklahoma's Islamic law amendment can't go into effect, court rules
Rachel Koning Beals: Should You Invest in Bond Funds or Individual Issues?
The Kosher Gourmet by Faith Durand : Colorful Lentil Salad with Walnuts and Herbs
January 10, 2012
Reza Kahlili: From an ex-CIA spy: US must exploit new split in Iran's Revolutionary Guard
Karen Kaplan: Study: Nicotine replacement products ineffective when used in real-life situations
Paul Bedard: Study: Is Fox Too Balanced?
Rachel Koning Beals: Is it Time to Move into Homebuilder Stocks?
The Kosher Gourmet by Carolyn Malcoun: Brothy Chinese Noodles

Half the Sodium (and More Than Twice the Fiber!)

January 9, 2012
Caroline B. Glick: The land-for-peace hoax (MUST-READ/FORWARD/SHARE)
Michael Doyle: Put through legal hell over dream home, couple fought back hard --- all the way to Supreme Court
Bonnie Miller Rubin: The new college-admission essay: Short and tweet(ish)
Rachel Koning Beals: Why Mid-Caps Stand Out in This Slow-Growth Stretch
The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington: Cumin seed roasted cauliflower with salted yogurt, mint and pomegranate seeds
January 6, 2012
Jonathan Rosenblum: Greatness --- and those who sully it
Clifford D. May: The Historian, the Diplomat, and the Spy
Paul Bedard: Study: Obama Is Late Night's Biggest Joke
Rachel Koning Beals: An Investing Guide to Closed-End Funds
The Kosher Gourmet by Faith Durand: Slow Cooker Peppered Beef Shank in Red Wine

Jewish World Review Feb. 26, 2009 / 2 Adar 5769

Wall Street Became Over-Dependent on Numbers, Lost Touch With Reality

By Michael Barone


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http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | Several economic blogs have pointed me to this excellent article by Felix Salmon in Wired on the Gaussian copula devised by mathematician David X. Li in 2000. This was a mathematical formula to quantify risk that "was adopted by everybody from bond investors and Wall Street banks to ratings agencies and regulators. And it became so deeply entrenched—and was making people so much money—that warnings about its limitations were largely ignored." It turns out that the formula underestimated the risk of many homeowners defaulting on mortgages at the same time. A method which was useful for insurance actuaries—for estimating the likelihood that a person whose spouse had died would die earlier than the actuarial tables would lead one to expect—turned out to be unreliable.

Li's formula was used to price collateral debt obligations (CDOs). I'll let Salmon tell how things played out:

Li's copula function was used to price hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of CDOs filled with mortgages. And because the copula function used CDS prices to calculate correlation, it was forced to confine itself to looking at the period of time when those credit default swaps had been in existence: less than a decade, a period when house prices soared. Naturally, default correlations were very low in those years. But when the mortgage boom ended abruptly and home values started falling across the country, correlations soared.

Bankers securitizing mortgages knew that their models were highly sensitive to house-price appreciation. If it ever turned negative on a national scale, a lot of bonds that had been rated triple-A, or risk-free, by copula-powered computer models would blow up. But no one was willing to stop the creation of CDOs, and the big investment banks happily kept on building more, drawing their correlation data from a period when real estate only went up.

Oops. Salmon is careful to note that Li is not necessarily responsible for the misuse of his Gaussian copula. But he also notes that he's moved to Beijing.

I see a pattern here: the attempt to see quantitative patterns in human behavior can be misleading unless it is supplemented by acquaintance with the qualitative facts on the ground. Li's Gaussian copula was just irresistibly attractive to Wall Street bond traders, because it expressed in one easily comprehensible number the risk they thought they were taking. But a more accurate estimate of that risk could come from actually taking a look at the properties that were being mortgaged. In a previous post, I linked to Michael Lewis's marvelous Conde Nast Portfolio article on "The End of Wall Street." He recounts how a trader named Steve Eisman came to the conclusion around the beginning of 2007 that mortgage backed securities and CDOs based on them were hugely overvalued. He came to that conclusion in part because of his acquaintance with facts on the ground.

More generally, the subprime market tapped a tranche of the American public that did not typically have anything to do with Wall Street. Lenders were making loans to people who, based on their credit ratings, were less creditworthy than 71 percent of the population. Eisman knew some of these people. One day, his housekeeper, a South American woman, told him that she was planning to buy a townhouse in Queens. "The price was absurd, and they were giving her a low-down-payment option-ARM," says Eisman, who talked her into taking out a conventional fixed-rate mortgage. Next, the baby nurse he'd hired back in 1997 to take care of his newborn twin daughters phoned him. "She was this lovely woman from Jamaica," he says. "One day she calls me and says she and her sister own five townhouses in Queens. I said, 'How did that happen?'?" It happened because after they bought the first one and its value rose, the lenders came and suggested they refinance and take out $250,000, which they used to buy another one. Then the price of that one rose too, and they repeated the experiment. "By the time they were done," Eisman says, "they owned five of them, the market was falling, and they couldn't make any of the payments."

His head trader Danny Moses made similar observations.

Moses actually flew down to Miami and wandered around neighborhoods built with subprime loans to see how bad things were. "He'd call me and say, 'Oh my God, this is a calamity here,'?" recalls Eisman. All that was required for the BBB bonds to go to zero was for the default rate on the underlying loans to reach 14 percent. Eisman thought that, in certain sections of the country, it would go far, far higher.

I have been a consumer of political and demographic numbers from the time my parents bought the 1951 edition of the World Book Encyclopedia, which contained results from the 1950 Census. I was overjoyed; previously the reference books I had access to only contained results from the 1940 Census. Naturally I started typing lists showing how the populations of cities and states had changed in that 10-year interval. None of the other kids were interested in this stuff at all—I was seven at the time—but I committed the populations of the nation's largest cities in the 1950 Census down to the last digit to memory, and I still remember them today. That was the beginning of what has turned out to be a career, in political consulting and journalism, based in large part in knowing and analyzing the numbers.

But as I have grown older, I have come increasingly to believe that the numbers are just clues. Sometimes misleading clues. There's a reality on the ground that you're trying to understand, and the numbers help you make sense about it, help you develop theories of why things are happening or changing as they are. But you can become over-dependent on numbers, as Wall Street became over-dependent on David X. Li's Gaussian copula, and end up being really, really wrong about reality. And you have to constantly keep that in mind. That's why I made a point, after co-authoring the first edition of The Almanac of American Politics, of traveling to all 50 states and all 435 congressional districts—which I accomplished when I landed at Ted Stevens International Airport in Anchorage, Alaska, in February 1998. It's just one way of keeping in touch with the facts on the ground.

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