
 |
|
February 10, 2012
Lisa M. Krieger: Man with defibrillator demands access to his own heart's information
David G. Savage: Why activists may not be in a hurry to have High Court rule on alternative marriage
February 9, 2012
Laura McMullen: 10 Least Expensive Public Schools for Out-of-State Students
Kimberly Palmer: How to actually enjoy -- relaxing, financially -- your vacation
February 8, 2012
Warren Richey: Why momentous Prop. 8 ruling might not satisfy gay-rights groups
Menachem Wecker: Though Controversial, LL.M.'s Can Lead to Specialized Legal Jobs
The Kosher Gourmet byDana Velden: Going to the bother of making soup? You know it better be good. This CREAM OF TOMATO SOUP certainly is! And it's a cinch to make, too (Includes techinques and serving secrets)
February 7, 2012
Frank J. Gaffney, Jr.: Caught off-guard? President's Super Bowl interview with Matt Lauer gives those who need a reason not to vote for him, a darn good one
Suzanne Bohan: Leaping lizards! Tiny reptiles advancing robot design
February 6, 2012
Jonathan Tobin: Iran Threatens Israel With Destruction, But the New York Times Doesn't Hear It
Jeffrey Fleishman: In newly democratic Egypt, tens of democracy activists jailed, to stand trial; their groups are 'threatening the stability of the homeland'
Julie Deardorff : Researchers say antioxidants may not be that effective and could do more harm than good
Mark Clayton: How did Anonymous hackers eavesdrop on FBI and Scotland Yard?
February 3, 2012
Edmund Sanders : Israeli official says Iran is creating missile that could reach East Coast of US
Victoria Kim: Immigrant-smuggling ring used black drivers to avoid racial profiling
February 2, 2012
Jim Carney: Wrong number call may have saved her life
Reza Kahlili : Ex-CIA spy in Iran's Revolutionary Guard: What Obama doesn't grasp about striking deals with Tehran
Tina Susman: For woodchuck rescuer, every day is Groundhog Day
February 1, 2012
Brian Bennett: US officials see increasing threat of domestic attack from Iran
Emily Brandon: How to Take Advantage of New 401(k) Fee Disclosures
January 31, 2012
January 30, 2012
Paul Richter and Ramin Mostaghim: Misreading Teheran's limits -- deadly and economically devastating as they may be -- is a risk administration, Europe seem willing to take
Suzanne Bohan: Warning: Nap-deprived tots missing more than sleep, study finds
Meg Handley: Banks Revamping Rewards Programs to Woo Customers
January 27, 2012
Caroline B. Glick: Obama: Of course I intend to prevent a nuclear holocaust . . . in a few months
Yochonon Donn: In liberal New York City, fervently-Orthodox Jews may soon be getting a district to call their own
Jeannine Stein: An inflated ego and thinking you're 'all that' doesn't just make others sick of you, it can make you ill
Katy Hopkins: New budget rules may affect how much money you get for college
January 26, 2012
Ed Koch: To the New York Times, calling for the murder of Jews by those capable of having their incitement taken seriously isn't news
Jeannine Stein: Mental illness struck one in five U.S. adults in 2010: Report
January 25, 2012
Richard Simon: House passes two bills endorsing the use of religious symbols at military memorials
Fred Weir: Putin: Multiethnic Russia cannot survive as a US-style 'melting pot'; must find its own way
Susan Johnston: 5 Sneaky Coupon Strategies Consumers Should Watch Out For
January 24, 2012
Carol Clark: The price of your soul: How your brain decides whether to 'sell out'
Caroline B. Glick: America lost most in 'Arab Spring'. Sadly, many voters still don't grasp the extent
Warren Richey: Drug criminal scores win in GPS ruling from conservative-leaning high court
Erika Bolstad: Black conservatives gather to talk about gaining strength
January 23, 2012
Melissa Dribben: Jewish voters to play a key role in Florida's Republican primary
Jordan Rau: In quest to grow, Catholic hospital system will announce this morning its break from church
Ali Safi: U.S. envoy gives Taliban terms for peace talks
January 19, 2012
January 18, 2012
January 17, 2012
Frank J. Gaffney Jr.: No-kidding red lines: U.S. response to an Iranian nuke may be bluster, but Israel's won't be
David G. Savage: They sued their principals after slandering them online --- now the cases are headed to the Supreme Court
David Francis: Where to Invest in 2012: With stocks expected to rebound, opportunity abounds for investors
January 13, 2012
Ben Lynfield: Israeli lawmakers move to annex Jewish Judea, one museum at a time
Alexia Elejalde-Ruiz: Thriving through touch: Gentle massage helps older people with low mobility improve in mind and body
January 12, 2012
Warren Richey: Landmark Supreme Court ruling a 'resounding win' for religious groups
Warren Richey: Supreme Court says no to new rule on eyewitness testimony
John Fauber : Statins found to raise diabetes risk in postmenopausal women
Katy Hopkins : Consider This Before You Pay for an Online Degree
The Kosher Gourmet by Joseph Erdos: This mushroom and barley soup has an intense -- almost nutty -- flavor that mixes robust with Middle East. It has creaminess without cream
January 11, 2012
Shari Roan: Millions of atrial fibrillation sufferers at risk for devastating, but preventable, stroke
Tom Hussain: Pakistan -- recipient of more than $21 billion in civilian and military aid -- speeds pursuit of Iranian pipeline, defying US
David G. Savage: High court signals it won't be loosening TV's 'indecency' rules
Stephen Ceasar: Oklahoma's Islamic law amendment can't go into effect, court rules
January 10, 2012
Reza Kahlili: From an ex-CIA spy: US must exploit new split in Iran's Revolutionary Guard
Karen Kaplan: Study: Nicotine replacement products ineffective when used in real-life situations
January 9, 2012
Michael Doyle: Put through legal hell over dream home, couple fought back hard --- all the way to Supreme Court
|
| |
Jewish World Review
Dec. 13, 2007
/4 Teves 5768
Fun begins as races tighten and shift
By
Jonathan V. Last
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
For most of the last week at least, Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee have been leading (some of) the polls in Iowa, displacing the long-standing front-runners, Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney. But you're not surprised, because you remember the Second Rule of Politics: All races tighten.
Right now, the headline would read: Clinton OK - and GOP race wide-open - no matter what happens.
Except for incumbents and sitting vice presidents, there are no coronations in presidential races. And even those exceptions have exceptions: In 1988, for instance, Vice President George H.W. Bush finished third in Iowa behind both Bob Dole and Pat Robertson. So it was certain the races this year would become competitive in both parties.
Let's start with the Democrats. Hillary Clinton retains a sizable national lead. She had been leading in Iowa since August, but now most polls show Obama with a two- to four-point edge. Clinton's support has remained relatively constant, hovering in the mid-to-high 20s. But Obama has picked up strength as John Edwards has faded, and undecided voters have begun hopping down from the fence.
The Clinton campaign seems panicked by these numbers, launching attacks against Obama for being overly ambitious and for having a long-standing plan to run for president. (Psychologists call this "projecting.") But they needn't worry so.
Sure, it'd be great for Clinton to win Iowa - that would be a huge blow to Obama and would place him in a position where he would need to win New Hampshire (where Clinton has a big lead) just to stay in the race. But even a second-place finish would leave Clinton in a very strong position. Losing Iowa is hardly the kiss of death for a Democratic hopeful. There have been six caucuses since 1972 without a Democratic incumbent president or vice president. Only two of them were won by the eventual nominee: Walter Mondale in 1984 and John Kerry in 2004. Clinton, Dukakis, Carter, and McGovern all finished second or third in Iowa.
Second place in Iowa would harbor irritants. Let's say the finish is Obama-Clinton-Edwards. The Edwards campaign was predicated on winning Iowa. If he finishes third, he won't last much past New Hampshire - which means that the anti-Clinton vote will consolidate sooner rather than later.
Now for the Republicans. Mitt Romney's candidacy has never actually caught on. As of a few weeks ago, he sat in fourth place in most national polls. But he's been leading Iowa since May. How's that? Because Romney tried to buy the Iowa caucus.
Early on, Romney decided that his only plausible path to the nomination was to win Iowa, win New Hampshire, and then use those victories to slingshot his candidacy nationally. To that end, he has dumped dollars into Iowa by the planeload: As of mid-November, he had spent $10.2 million on television ads, mostly in Iowa and New Hampshire. For some perspective, the second-biggest TV spender on the Republican side has been John McCain, who as of mid-November had spent only a little more than $300,000.
For his money, Romney was able to buy an early Iowa lead. But that's gone now. Mike Huckabee began rising in early October and now has a lead in Iowa of three to five points in the two most worthwhile polls, Rasmussen and the Des Moines Register, respectively. Romney's support has dipped a little, but hasn't collapsed. Huckabee's rise has come somewhat at the expense of Fred Thompson; mostly it's undecideds breaking Huckabee's way.
It's unclear how far Huckabee's momentum can take him. He remains a very long shot to win the nomination, and he has yet to take a punch. That punch probably won't come from the mainstream media, which see him as the weakest Republican and thus a good match-up for either Clinton or Obama.
Which is why Romney's surrogates, such as talk-show host and blogger Hugh Hewitt, have gone into overdrive attacking Huckabee during the last week. But Romney's problem isn't Huckabee - it's Romney. One of the striking aspects of the Romney campaign is how his national poll numbers remained stagnant even as he used money to move his Iowa and New Hampshire numbers. Huckabee is proof that a good candidate shouldn't have this dichotomy. While spending almost no money, Huckabee has taken off in Iowa - and, correspondingly, his national numbers have boomed. In the latest Rasmussen poll, Huckabee surged to 18 percent, leaving Romney in fifth place. So far, Republican voters just aren't keen for Romney, and in a national primary process, no amount of money can hide that fact.
The rest of the Republican field is fighting over third place in the Hawkeye state. Thompson and Rudy Giuliani are both sitting around 12 percent. Thompson says he needs to finish third to have a chance to win the nomination; conventional wisdom has it that there are only three tickets out of Iowa. But that may not be right. If Romney wins Iowa, third place becomes very important. If Huckabee wins, then the Romney campaign becomes a ghost ship - which gives Giuliani, Thompson, and McCain all room to grow as Romney's New Hampshire support becomes unmoored.
The fun begins Jan. 3, when upward of 200,000 Iowans brave the cold to help select our next president. Which means that, with less than a month to go, there's still plenty of time for the field to shift again.
Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here.
Jonathan V. Last is a columnist for the Philadelphia Inquirer. Comment by clicking here.
Previously:
12/05/07 Iran's future: Would lower fertility rates lead to stability?
11/01/07 Nobel Prize in Economics where Team USA still dominates the game
10/25/07 Handicapping the GOP's presidential horse race
10/11/07 Germany's Turks provide a lesson on immigration
09/13/07 British battle can offer us a perspective on casualties
09/12/07 Alas, GOP seems set to take hit in Senate
08/30/07 Europeans have supplanted backbones with capitulation
08/24/07 Politics holds the key to ensuring a healthy growth in population
08/17/07 Finessing the Democratic center
08/10/07 Woohoo! Satire seeing a revival
07/31/07 Historical model: For Obama, it's Carter
07/26/07 Baseball, apple pie, a 2nd chance
07/24/07 Harry Potter and the alchemy theory
07/06/07 Life is hard and often short. The perils of professional wrestling
06/21/07 After Bush: Gingrich and others worry that his shortcomings could have a far-reaching effect on the GOP
03/09/07 Why the British outclass us in acting
01/23/07 Romney: Seriously great, but with baggage
12/23/06 When truth is transpicuous
12/05/06 A realistic plan: Split the country in two
11/08/06 We could easily pull out of Korea and let China have regional hegemony. But would it be the right thing?
10/24/06 The decline of revolution
10/18/06 Why the free market is king
08/07/06 Democracy, of itself, not solution to all problems
08/01/06 We get the movies we deserve
07/27/06 How long will U.S. empire last?
© 2006, The Philadelphia Inquirer. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.
|
|

Arnold Ahlert
Mitch Albom
Jay Ambrose
Michael Barone
Barrywood
Tony Blankley
Lori Borgman
Stratfor Briefing
Mona Charen
Linda Chavez
Richard Z. Chesnoff
Ann Coulter
Greg Crosby
Alan Douglas
Larry Elder
Suzanne Fields
Frank J. Gaffney
Bernie Goldberg
Jonah Goldberg
Julia Gorin
Jonathan Gurwitz
Paul Greenberg
Argus Hamilton
Victor Davis Hanson
Betsy Hart
Ron Hart
Nat Hentoff
Marybeth Hicks
David Horowitz
Jeff Jacoby
Renee James
Paul Johnson
Jack Kelly
Ed Koch
Ch. Krauthammer
Michael Ledeen
John Leo
David Limbaugh
Kathryn Lopez
Rich Lowry
Michelle Malkin
Jackie Mason
Ann McFeatters
Dale McFeatters
Dana Milbank
Jeanne Moos
Dick Morris
Jim Mullen
Deroy Murdock
Judge A. Napolitano
Bill O'Reilly
Kathleen Parker
Star Parker
Dennis Prager
Wesley Pruden
Tom Purcell
Sharon Randall
Robert Robb
Cokie & Steve Roberts
Heather Robinson
Pat Sajak
Debra J. Saunders
Martin Schram
Culture Shlock
David Shribman
Roger Simon
Michael Smerconish
Thomas Sowell
Ben Stein
Mark Steyn
John Stossel
Cal Thomas
Dan Thomasson
Bob Tyrrell
Ben Wattenberg
Diana West
Dave Weinbaum
George Will
Walter Williams
Byron York
ZeitGeist
Mort Zuckerman

Robert Arial
Chuck Asay
Baloo
Chip Bok
Dry Bones
Lisa Benson
John Branch
John Cole
J. D. Crowe
John Deering
Brian Duffy
Everything's Relative
Mallard Fillmore
Glenn Foden
Jake Fuller
Bob Gorrel
Joe Heller
David Hitch
Jerry Holbert
Lee Judge
Steve Kelley
Jeff Koterba
Dick Locher
Jimmy Margulies
Rick McKee
Michael Ramirez
Kevin Siers
Jeff Stahler
Ed Stein
Danna Summers
John Trever
Gary Varvel
Kirk Walters

Mr. Know-It-All
Dr. Peter Gott
GET A JOB! by Marty Nemko
Richard Lederer
Frugal Living
Tech Maven
On Nutrition
Bookmark These
Bruce Williams
|