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February 10, 2012
Lisa M. Krieger: Man with defibrillator demands access to his own heart's information
David G. Savage: Why activists may not be in a hurry to have High Court rule on alternative marriage
February 9, 2012
Laura McMullen: 10 Least Expensive Public Schools for Out-of-State Students
Kimberly Palmer: How to actually enjoy -- relaxing, financially -- your vacation
February 8, 2012
Warren Richey: Why momentous Prop. 8 ruling might not satisfy gay-rights groups
Menachem Wecker: Though Controversial, LL.M.'s Can Lead to Specialized Legal Jobs
The Kosher Gourmet byDana Velden: Going to the bother of making soup? You know it better be good. This CREAM OF TOMATO SOUP certainly is! And it's a cinch to make, too (Includes techinques and serving secrets)
February 7, 2012
Frank J. Gaffney, Jr.: Caught off-guard? President's Super Bowl interview with Matt Lauer gives those who need a reason not to vote for him, a darn good one
Suzanne Bohan: Leaping lizards! Tiny reptiles advancing robot design
February 6, 2012
Jonathan Tobin: Iran Threatens Israel With Destruction, But the New York Times Doesn't Hear It
Jeffrey Fleishman: In newly democratic Egypt, tens of democracy activists jailed, to stand trial; their groups are 'threatening the stability of the homeland'
Julie Deardorff : Researchers say antioxidants may not be that effective and could do more harm than good
Mark Clayton: How did Anonymous hackers eavesdrop on FBI and Scotland Yard?
February 3, 2012
Edmund Sanders : Israeli official says Iran is creating missile that could reach East Coast of US
Victoria Kim: Immigrant-smuggling ring used black drivers to avoid racial profiling
February 2, 2012
Jim Carney: Wrong number call may have saved her life
Reza Kahlili : Ex-CIA spy in Iran's Revolutionary Guard: What Obama doesn't grasp about striking deals with Tehran
Tina Susman: For woodchuck rescuer, every day is Groundhog Day
February 1, 2012
Brian Bennett: US officials see increasing threat of domestic attack from Iran
Emily Brandon: How to Take Advantage of New 401(k) Fee Disclosures
January 31, 2012
January 30, 2012
Paul Richter and Ramin Mostaghim: Misreading Teheran's limits -- deadly and economically devastating as they may be -- is a risk administration, Europe seem willing to take
Suzanne Bohan: Warning: Nap-deprived tots missing more than sleep, study finds
Meg Handley: Banks Revamping Rewards Programs to Woo Customers
January 27, 2012
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Katy Hopkins: New budget rules may affect how much money you get for college
January 26, 2012
Ed Koch: To the New York Times, calling for the murder of Jews by those capable of having their incitement taken seriously isn't news
Jeannine Stein: Mental illness struck one in five U.S. adults in 2010: Report
January 25, 2012
Richard Simon: House passes two bills endorsing the use of religious symbols at military memorials
Fred Weir: Putin: Multiethnic Russia cannot survive as a US-style 'melting pot'; must find its own way
Susan Johnston: 5 Sneaky Coupon Strategies Consumers Should Watch Out For
January 24, 2012
Carol Clark: The price of your soul: How your brain decides whether to 'sell out'
Caroline B. Glick: America lost most in 'Arab Spring'. Sadly, many voters still don't grasp the extent
Warren Richey: Drug criminal scores win in GPS ruling from conservative-leaning high court
Erika Bolstad: Black conservatives gather to talk about gaining strength
January 23, 2012
Melissa Dribben: Jewish voters to play a key role in Florida's Republican primary
Jordan Rau: In quest to grow, Catholic hospital system will announce this morning its break from church
Ali Safi: U.S. envoy gives Taliban terms for peace talks
January 19, 2012
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January 17, 2012
Frank J. Gaffney Jr.: No-kidding red lines: U.S. response to an Iranian nuke may be bluster, but Israel's won't be
David G. Savage: They sued their principals after slandering them online --- now the cases are headed to the Supreme Court
David Francis: Where to Invest in 2012: With stocks expected to rebound, opportunity abounds for investors
January 13, 2012
Ben Lynfield: Israeli lawmakers move to annex Jewish Judea, one museum at a time
Alexia Elejalde-Ruiz: Thriving through touch: Gentle massage helps older people with low mobility improve in mind and body
January 12, 2012
Warren Richey: Landmark Supreme Court ruling a 'resounding win' for religious groups
Warren Richey: Supreme Court says no to new rule on eyewitness testimony
John Fauber : Statins found to raise diabetes risk in postmenopausal women
Katy Hopkins : Consider This Before You Pay for an Online Degree
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January 11, 2012
Shari Roan: Millions of atrial fibrillation sufferers at risk for devastating, but preventable, stroke
Tom Hussain: Pakistan -- recipient of more than $21 billion in civilian and military aid -- speeds pursuit of Iranian pipeline, defying US
David G. Savage: High court signals it won't be loosening TV's 'indecency' rules
Stephen Ceasar: Oklahoma's Islamic law amendment can't go into effect, court rules
January 10, 2012
Reza Kahlili: From an ex-CIA spy: US must exploit new split in Iran's Revolutionary Guard
Karen Kaplan: Study: Nicotine replacement products ineffective when used in real-life situations
January 9, 2012
Michael Doyle: Put through legal hell over dream home, couple fought back hard --- all the way to Supreme Court
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Jewish World Review
Sept. 12, 2007
/ 29 Elul, 5767
Alas, GOP seems set to take hit in Senate
By
Jonathan V. Last
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http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
You know your party is in trouble when one of its senators is caught allegedly pulling a George Michael in an airport restroom, he's forced to (sort of) resign, then says he didn't mean it, and that's only the second-worst news of the week.
The bigger problem Republicans faced was the news that Sen. John W. Warner of Virginia would not seek reelection. The 2008 election is a long way off, and events are always unpredictable. But in a close presidential election, Democrats could make large gains in the Senate this cycle. And if the Democratic presidential nominee breaks open the race, forces are in motion for a genuine realignment.
As things stand now, Democrats have a 51-49 edge in the Senate. (There are only 49 Democrats, but independents Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders vote with the Dems.) In November 2008, 34 Senate seats will be up for election; 22 of those are Republican seats, and only 12 are held by Democrats. The math is brutal enough, but when you look more closely at the races, the news gets even worse for Republicans.
Take Virginia: The reason Warner's retirement was such bad news for Republicans is that this once-Red State is getting bluer every year. Virginians tossed out George Allen - who was considered, by conservatives, presidential material once upon a time - for newly minted Democrat Jim Webb in 2006. The state's current governor, Democrat Tim Kaine, succeeded another successful Democrat, Mark Warner.
The only hope for Republicans is that at the presidential level, George W. Bush received 52 percent of the Virginia vote in 2000 and 54 percent in 2004. Waiting in the wings to try to hold the Senate seat for Republicans are former Gov. Jim Gilmore, who just dropped out of the presidential race - What? You forgot he was ever in it? - and Eric Cantor, a fourth-term representative from Richmond's Seventh District.
(From a Republican strategist's view, Sen. Warner's retirement is all the more tragic because it means that his wavering on Iraq and attempts to distance himself from Bush and the war ultimately served no practical political purpose.)
Republican Sen. Wayne Allard's retirement leaves a seat open in Colorado, another state that has been trending Democratic. Democrats won four of the state's seven congressional districts in 2006 as well as the governorship.
Those are the only two open seats, but going around the horn, some Republican incumbents seem vulnerable. In Minnesota, Norm Coleman is up for reelection in a state that is increasingly Democratic. Coleman has been a solid senator, but in a liberal state, during a wave election, he certainly isn't safe.
New Hampshire was a heavily Republican state as recently as 2000, but that's changing, and Sen. John Sununu's seat may be in play. Al Gore lost New Hampshire, but John Kerry won the Granite State in 2004; in 2006, Democratic challengers unseated both of the Republican incumbent representatives while the Democratic governor rolled to reelection by nearly 50 points.
In North Carolina, Sen. Elizabeth Dole's numbers are less than inspiring: Two recent polls put her approval rating in the 48 percent to 52 percent range. Also, she began 2007 with only $245,000 in her campaign war chest. The Hotline's Chuck Todd and Quinn McCord, two of the sharpest election watchers in Washington, note that while Republicans have good presidential chances in North Carolina, Democrats are poised to take most of the other statewide races.
Alaska probably isn't in play, but Sen. Ted Stevens is embroiled in all sorts of nonpolitical trouble: FBI and IRS agents raided his house in July as part of a corruption case. The investigation is still on, not a good backdrop for a campaign.
Arrayed against these vulnerable Republicans, only one Democratic senator, Louisiana's Mary Landrieu, looks weak. So many Democratic voters fled the state after Katrina that the political deck in the bayou is now stacked in favor of Republicans. Things are so bad for Louisiana Democrats that the popular Democratic state treasurer, John Kennedy, just switched parties and may wind up as Landrieu's challenger.
What will the final math look like? If the Democrats sweep to a broad presidential victory, they could wind up with something like 58 seats (with some combination of Oregon, New Mexico and Maine also coming into play). But even in a close presidential race, they might gain three or four seats.
For Republicans, that electoral reality is ominous enough to make them yearn for a simple anonymous, gay, bathroom sex scandal.
Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here.
Jonathan V. Last is a columnist for the Philadelphia Inquirer. Comment by clicking here.
Previously:
08/30/07 Europeans have supplanted backbones with capitulation
08/24/07 Politics holds the key to ensuring a healthy growth in population
08/17/07 Finessing the Democratic center
08/10/07 Woohoo! Satire seeing a revival
07/31/07 Historical model: For Obama, it's Carter
07/26/07 Baseball, apple pie, a 2nd chance
07/24/07 Harry Potter and the alchemy theory
07/06/07 Life is hard and often short. The perils of professional wrestling
06/21/07 After Bush: Gingrich and others worry that his shortcomings could have a far-reaching effect on the GOP
03/09/07 Why the British outclass us in acting
01/23/07 Romney: Seriously great, but with baggage
12/23/06 When truth is transpicuous
12/05/06 A realistic plan: Split the country in two
11/08/06 We could easily pull out of Korea and let China have regional hegemony. But would it be the right thing?
10/24/06 The decline of revolution
10/18/06 Why the free market is king
08/07/06 Democracy, of itself, not solution to all problems
08/01/06 We get the movies we deserve
07/27/06 How long will U.S. empire last?
© 2006, The Philadelphia Inquirer. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.
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