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Jewish World Review Sept. 8, 2005 / 4 Elul, 5765 Bin Laden & Co. lose market share By Jonathan Gurwitz
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaida acolytes around the globe are a lot of things: terrorists, murderers, extremists, theocratic medievalists, homophobic hoodlums and misogynistic thugs.
In addition, they are peddlers. They are peddlers selling a particular view of history and vision for the future. Against other visionary products from both secular and religious establishments, Bin Laden & Co. have to demonstrate to global consumers why their brand of Islamist utopianism is better than the rest.
In a videotape that bin Laden released in late 2001, he told his followers, "When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature they will like the strong horse."
It's a troglodytic variation of a simple maxim: Everyone loves a winner. It's why Wheaties puts Tim Duncan, Kirk Gibson and Carly Patterson on its boxes rather than Mike Tyson, John Rocker and Tonya Harding.
Islamic extremists have their own version of the breakfast of champions. Images of 9-11, of beheadings and from bombings in Bali, Madrid, London and everywhere else are their trademark. These acts of inhuman violence all accomplished tactical goals. Yet they were also all in service to the larger strategic goal of showing Islamism to be an uncompromising and inevitable victor.
At the end of the day, bin Laden and his associates are in the public relations game. So the recently released results of a long-term metasurvey conducted by the Pew Global Attitudes Project will come as a major disappointment to the mullah marketers.
The survey's most significant finding: Support for acts of terrorism in defense of Islam has dramatically declined in most Muslim countries.
Between 2002 and 2005, the number of respondents who endorsed the use of violence against civilians dropped from 73 percent to 39 percent in Lebanon; 33 percent to 25 percent in Pakistan; and 27 percent to 15 percent in Indonesia. Only Jordanians notched an appreciable increase in support of terrorism.
On the specific issue of supporting suicide bombings against U.S. forces and their allies in Iraq, there is another huge decline. Over the past year, the number of respondents who said such suicide attacks are justifiable dropped from 66 percent to 56 percent in Morocco; 70 percent to 49 percent in Jordan; 46 percent to 29 percent in Pakistan; and 31 percent to 24 percent in Turkey.
Bin Laden's stature has also taken a big hit since 2003. The percentage of respondents with great or some confidence in bin Laden as a world leader has dropped by 23 points in Indonesia, 23 points in Morocco, 8 points in Turkey and 12 points in Lebanon.
As support for the Islamist agenda has waned, another survey finds perceptions of the United States improving. Since 2003, there has been an impressive rise in favorable opinion about the United States in Indonesia, Turkey, Pakistan, Lebanon and Jordan. Not coincidentally, large and growing numbers of Muslims see democracy as a suitable form of governance.
More news that bodes ill for Islamists: People under 35 are more likely to hold favorable views of the United States than older people.
Now, many of the raw numbers themselves are downright depressing. The fact that so many in the Islamic world continue to show support for terrorism represents a long-term challenge for Muslim moderates. But the trends are far more positive than a casual viewing of the evening news would suggest.
Political prophets of doom and academic Cassandras warned that going to war in Afghanistan — and later in Iraq — would earn the United States the eternal enmity of Muslims and breed more support for Islamic extremism. Supporting the spread of democracy in the Islamic world, they said, was a doctrine of arrogance condemned to failure.
The numbers suggest otherwise.
To use bin Laden's metaphor, four years after the attacks that were to have precipitated the downfall of the United States, America is still the strong horse.
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JWR contributor Jonathan Gurwitz, a columnist for the San Antonio Express-News, is a co-founder and twice served as Director General of the Future Leaders of the Alliance program at NATO Headquarters in Brussels, Belgium. In 1986 he was placed on the Foreign Service Register of the U.S. State Department.Comment by clicking here.
© 2005, Jonathan Gurwitz |
Arnold Ahlert | |||||||||||
