Modern generation gap goes beyond age group

We are in the middle of another generation gap.

Only this one is different. Really different.

This one isn't a chasm between the World War II generation and the youthful rebels of the 1960s. This one is about race and social attitudes with a little bit of policy and ideology thrown in. And it is a whopper of a generation gap.

Consider this: Every American under 40 today — fully a majority of the country — is either a millennial (born 1977-1995) or a Gen Zer (born 1996 or after). Or this: There are more people in the millennial and Gen Z generations than in the baby boom generation, Gen X and the rest of the population combined.

And all those people who say they don't recognize the America they see outside their quarantine windows or behind masks on the streets? They are right. This is not your grandfather's United States. It is not even your parents' United States.

For the first time in American history, more than half of those under age 16 are part of an ethnic or racial minority. And as white baby boomers age out of the workforce — it is happening every day — all the labor growth will be among racial minorities.

William Frey, perhaps the best-known demographer in the country, has spent a lifetime harvesting data such as this. His 2014 book "Diversity Explosion: How New Racial Demographics Are Remaking America" (updated in 2018) helped introduce the notion of a "cultural generation gap" — a generation gap where the resentment may be less among the young than among older Americans, who are being replaced professionally and displaced culturally by a surging new generation.

"This gap is reflected in negative attitudes among many older whites toward immigration, new minority growth, and big government programs that cater to the real economic and educational needs of America's younger, more diverse population," he wrote.

Just the other day, Mr. Frey, 73 and himself a baby boomer, amplified those views in a telephone conversation:

"We need leaders to tell older Americans these changes will help our economic growth. If it were not for these young people, we would be facing a declining labor force. This is where the future is. The labor force is becoming more racially diverse and, in another 10 years, all the baby boomers will be out of the workforce and we will need these people, their talents and their energies."

The most prominent change in the character of America may be the least noticed, and surely the least appreciated. Indeed, the most profound changes in America are occurring among the young population — even as the most profound challenges in America are affecting the young population the most.

An Urban Institute study found that 57.4% of Gen Zers were in families that experienced job losses related to the coronavirus, a far greater rate than working-age baby boomers (35.4%). Moreover, the millennials were the only generation to fall behind financially between 2010 and 2016, according to the Federal Reserve Board of St. Louis.

Much of this has been reflected in the nation's political life.

"There's no question that in the last several elections, the young voted differently than the rest of the population," Mr. Frey said in the interview. "They are more interested in interracial marriage, gay rights, criminal justice and diversity, while older whites aren't happy about the changing demography in the United States. They see a threat to American values and American customs."

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Today there is little confusion between the two major political parties. Two shorthands prevail, though as with all shorthands there are variations: The Republican Party comprises people who are older, white, male, rural and Southern. The Democratic Party is a party of people who are younger, nonwhite, female, urban and non-Southern.

At the same time, huge demographic changes are underway. "The country is heading toward becoming California," said Dennis J. Goldford, a political scientist at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa. "Democrats still are banking on the new demographics. There may have been some slippage in the 2020 election, but it's still clear Democrats have a greater potential among these groups. The question is whether they can actualize that advantage."

The answer is for another Election Day.

The Republicans, to be sure, made inroads among Blacks and Hispanics in this month's election. This was the case especially in Florida, where Donald Trump took 47% of the Hispanic vote and where, in Dade County (Miami), his vote among Hispanics grew by 22 percentage points.

But the reason Joe Biden is the president-elect may be the demographics the Democrats are counting on. An analysis of the 2020 vote by Tufts University's Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement found that 3 out of 5 young voters supported Mr. Biden — a better performance for the Democratic nominee than Hillary Rodham Clinton achieved four years ago.

And where this really mattered was in the swing states.

Here in Pennsylvania, young voters accounted for about one-seventh of the total electorate and supported Mr. Biden by 23 percentage points, helping him to secure 20 vital electoral votes. In Arizona, young voters accounted for one-sixth of the electorate and supported Mr. Biden by 28 points — about the same rates as youthful voters checked in for the former vice president in Michigan (29%). And in Georgia, young voters were about a fifth of the electorate, and they sided with Mr. Biden by 15 points.

"The [new generation] gap is not a result of racist attitudes per se. It reflects the social distance between minority youth and an older population that does not feel a personal connection with young adults and children who are not ‘their' children and grandchildren," Mr. Frey wrote in his book. "Yet the future well-being of seniors and the nation as a whole depends on the ability of today's youth to succeed in tomorrow's labor force. Youth will play a central role in contributing to the nation's economy and to the retirement and medical care programs that directly benefit the older population."

Bottom line: It may be young people's rebellion. But the stakes affect us all.

David Shribman, a Pulitzer Prize winner in journalism, is executive editor of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

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