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December 2, 2014

Jonathan Tobin: Defending the Right to a Jewish State

Heather Hale: Compliment your kids without giving them big heads

Megan Shauri: 10 ways you are ruining your own happiness

Carolyn Bigda: 8 Best Dividend Stocks for 2015

Kiplinger's Personal Finance editors: 7 Things You Didn't Know About Paying Off Student Loans

Samantha Olson: The Crucial Mistake 55% Of Parents Are Making At Their Baby's Bedtime

Densie Well, Ph.D., R.D. Open your eyes to yellow vegetables

The Kosher Gourmet by Megan Gordon With its colorful cache of purples and oranges and reds, COLLARD GREEN SLAW is a marvelous mood booster --- not to mention just downright delish
April 18, 2014

Rabbi Yonason Goldson: Clarifying one of the greatest philosophical conundrums in theology

Caroline B. Glick: The disappearance of US will

Megan Wallgren: 10 things I've learned from my teenagers

Lizette Borreli: Green Tea Boosts Brain Power, May Help Treat Dementia

John Ericson: Trying hard to be 'positive' but never succeeding? Blame Your Brain

The Kosher Gourmet by Julie Rothman Almondy, flourless torta del re (Italian king's cake), has royal roots, is simple to make, . . . but devour it because it's simply delicious

April 14, 2014

Rabbi Dr Naftali Brawer: Passover frees us from the tyranny of time

Greg Crosby: Passing Over Religion

Eric Schulzke: First degree: How America really recovered from a murder epidemic

Georgia Lee: When love is not enough: Teaching your kids about the realities of adult relationships

Cameron Huddleston: Freebies for Your Lawn and Garden

Gordon Pape: How you can tell if your financial adviser is setting you up for potential ruin

Dana Dovey: Up to 500,000 people die each year from hepatitis C-related liver disease. New Treatment Has Over 90% Success Rate

Justin Caba: Eating Watermelon Can Help Control High Blood Pressure

The Kosher Gourmet by Joshua E. London and Lou Marmon Don't dare pass over these Pesach picks for Manischewitz!

April 11, 2014

Rabbi Hillel Goldberg: Silence is much more than golden

Caroline B. Glick: Forgetting freedom at Passover

Susan Swann: How to value a child for who he is, not just what he does

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Financial Tasks You Should Tackle Right Now

Sandra Block and Lisa Gerstner: How to Profit From Your Passion

Susan Scutti: A Simple Blood Test Might Soon Diagnose Cancer

Chris Weller: Have A Slow Metabolism? Let Science Speed It Up For You

The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington Whitefish Terrine: A French take on gefilte fish

April 9, 2014

Jonathan Tobin: Why Did Kerry Lie About Israeli Blame?

Samuel G. Freedman: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Jessica Ivins: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Kim Giles: Asking for help is not weakness

Kathy Kristof and Barbara Hoch Marcus: 7 Great Growth Israeli Stocks

Matthew Mientka: How Beans, Peas, And Chickpeas Cleanse Bad Cholesterol and Lowers Risk of Heart Disease

Sabrina Bachai: 5 At-Home Treatments For Headaches

The Kosher Gourmet by Daniel Neman Have yourself a matzo ball: The secrets bubby never told you and recipes she could have never imagined

April 8, 2014

Lori Nawyn: At Your Wit's End and Back: Finding Peace

Susan B. Garland and Rachel L. Sheedy: Strategies Married Couples Can Use to Boost Benefits

David Muhlbaum: Smart Tax Deductions Non-Itemizers Can Claim

Jill Weisenberger, M.S., R.D.N., C.D.E : Before You Lose Your Mental Edge

Dana Dovey: Coffee Drinkers Rejoice! Your Cup Of Joe Can Prevent Death From Liver Disease

Chris Weller: Electric 'Thinking Cap' Puts Your Brain Power Into High Gear

The Kosher Gourmet by Marlene Parrish A gift of hazelnuts keeps giving --- for a variety of nutty recipes: Entree, side, soup, dessert

April 4, 2014

Rabbi David Gutterman: The Word for Nothing Means Everything

Charles Krauthammer: Kerry's folly, Chapter 3

Amy Peterson: A life of love: How to build lasting relationships with your children

John Ericson: Older Women: Save Your Heart, Prevent Stroke Don't Drink Diet

John Ericson: Why 50 million Americans will still have spring allergies after taking meds

Cameron Huddleston: Best and Worst Buys of April 2014

Stacy Rapacon: Great Mutual Funds for Young Investors

Sarah Boesveld: Teacher keeps promise to mail thousands of former students letters written by their past selves

The Kosher Gourmet by Sharon Thompson Anyone can make a salad, you say. But can they make a great salad? (SECRETS, TESTED TECHNIQUES + 4 RECIPES, INCLUDING DRESSINGS)

April 2, 2014

Paul Greenberg: Death and joy in the spring

Dan Barry: Should South Carolina Jews be forced to maintain this chimney built by Germans serving the Nazis?

Mayra Bitsko: Save me! An alien took over my child's personality

Frank Clayton: Get happy: 20 scientifically proven happiness activities

Susan Scutti: It's Genetic! Obesity and the 'Carb Breakdown' Gene

Lecia Bushak: Why Hand Sanitizer May Actually Harm Your Health

Stacy Rapacon: Great Funds You Can Own for $500 or Less

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Ways to Save on Home Decor

The Kosher Gourmet by Steve Petusevsky Exploring ingredients as edible-stuffed containers (TWO RECIPES + TIPS & TECHINQUES)

Jewish World Review Sept. 5, 2011 / 4 Elul, 5771

A horse race column: Who might win the GOP nomination and how it might unfold

By David M. Shribman




http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | Presidential politics rises flood-like after Labor Day, and this month begins a Niagara of debates. Before long the airwaves of Des Moines and Manchester will be full of appeals to voters and the papers will be full of poll figures.

One of those polls stuck out last week. It was the CNN weekly survey, and it showed that in less than three weeks, Gov. Rick Perry of Texas went from a statistical dead heat with Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts to doubling Mr. Romney's support, becoming the clear frontrunner in the Republican race. That prompted a CNN commentary setting out a scenario for Campaign 2012 that would have been inconceivable on Independence Day:

If it was January/February 2012, Romney would win New Hampshire's primary while Perry would win the Iowa and Nevada caucuses and would take the South Carolina primary. Perry would then go into Super Tuesday the frontrunner and would likely secure enough delegates in those contests to be the nominee. There is plenty of campaign to go, but that is how this race looks from Labor Day 2011.

But here is what could happen between Labor Day and the Republican National Convention in Tampa 51 weeks from now:

Nothing

This is not likely but possible. The prognosis above is plausible. Mr. Perry is strongly positioned to win the Iowa caucuses. He packs the evangelical and stylistic punch to prevail in a state that in the past quarter-century has seen abortion politics and social conservatism dominate the Republican debate.

If Mr. Perry does prevail in Iowa, he's not likely to win in New Hampshire, the next contest. That's because New Hampshire often acts as an antidote to Iowa; former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas was the GOP winner in Iowa four years ago but lost to Mr. Romney in New Hampshire, just as Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois was the Democratic winner in Iowa but lost New Hampshire to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.

This pattern has historical roots. In 1988, Sen. Robert J. Dole of Kansas won Iowa but lost New Hampshire to Vice President George H. W. Bush. And all this is without considering how hostile the terrain of New Hampshire likely will be to Mr. Perry. The state has little religious-conservative fervor and, more important, invites Independents (who are unlikely to be Perry supporters) to vote in its primary.

The rest of the CNN scenario could happen. Mr. Romney as a Mormon has a fighting chance in Nevada but not much of one in South Carolina, unless former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania and Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota remain in the race that long, dividing the social-conservative vote and providing a surprising sunny opening for Mr. Romney. If not, Mr. Perry could be home free.

Mr. Perry stumbles

Part of the Texas governor's special appeal is his candor. He's not one of those candidates who tries to say what you think. He says what he thinks, and that formula has worked for him.

Unlike Mr. Romney, who lost a Senate race to Edward M. Kennedy in Massachusetts and a presidential nomination fight to Sen. John McCain of Arizona, Mr. Perry has never lost an election. Caveat: Though he defeated the popular Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in a bruising gubernatorial primary last year, Mr. Perry hasn't faced competition nearly as formidable as Mr. Romney has.

Mr. Perry's campaign depends in unusual measure on his candor. If he transforms it into charm, he could be on the way to the nomination. If he transforms it into recklessness, he could be road kill.

Mr. Romney surges, or endures

Mr. Romney is more sure-footed than Mr. Perry and probably will continue to be better funded than his Texas rival. He won't lose his temper or his focus. The Republican Old Guard isn't nearly as potent as it once was, but it doesn't want Mr. Perry at the top of the ticket and will do everything it can to derail him.

The Republican instinct to pick the Next Guy isn't nearly as strong as it once was, either, but Mr. Romney is indisputably the Next Guy and could be the man left standing after everyone else has run out of money and the public has run out of patience.

Don't count him out. The Don't-Underestimate-Him candidate is said to be Mr. Perry, but Mr. Romney has a claim to the title as well; hardly anyone's passionate about him, yet he's still around. He wants it more than Mr. Perry, is more disciplined and has prepared longer and more deeply. Florida, the first place where there is no natural advantage for any candidate, could be a crucial test. Mr. Romney is readier there in September than Mr. Perry will be in March.

Someone else emerges

The hope that someone else may join the field dwindles with every day, though do not forget how late (March 16) Robert F. Kennedy joined the Democratic contest in 1968 -- and he very well might have won the nomination had he not been murdered.

The 2012 GOP nomination remains a glittery prize; it isn't every day you can run against an incumbent whose disapproval rating is 60 percent (Zogby International) at a time when most likely voters say it's time for someone new in the presidency (55 percent, Zogby) and when consumer confidence has hit a two-year low. A new entrant could change everything. Then again, maybe the new entrant already has entered. His name is Rick Perry.

Some event intercedes

Mayor Joseph B. Harrington of Salem, Mass., was an America-First candidate in a special congressional election on Boston's North Shore, a Democrat who had distanced himself from Franklin Roosevelt and proclaimed himself "100 percent opposed to President Roosevelt's foreign policy." He almost certainly would have won the seat but for one thing. The primary was on Dec. 16, 1941.

Events matter, and the unpredictable is, by definition, difficult to imagine. Mr. Perry is in a strong position on the eve of Labor Day. But CNN is right. There is plenty of campaign to go.

Comment by clicking here.

David Shribman, a Pulitzer Prize winner in journalism, is executive editor of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.


Previously:



08/29/11 The vacuum calls
08/22/11 Passion and politics: How Barack Obama and Mitt Romney got crowded into the same dangerous corner
08/15/11 Eleanor's little village
08/08/11 The agony of August
08/01/11 The politics of the impossible: What a country this might be if the political class served the broad interests of the majority
07/25/11 Pennant fever grips 'Burgh
07/18/11 Exemplar of an era
07/11/11 On summer
07/04/11 The soul of the party
06/27/11 What the Secretary said
06/20/11 Romney has big advantages over his rivals, but they will be coming after him
06/06/11 One question each
05/30/11 The 14-week challenge
05/23/11 Delay tactics
05/16/11 Republicans are waiting
05/09/11 Bin Laden is dead. What does it mean?
05/02/11 From nobodies to nominees
04/25/11 The founders left slavery for future generations to settle, and we still haven't fully come to terms with it
04/18/11 From audacious to cautious
04/11/11 Dreaming of space
12/12/10 The GOP takes control
12/06/10 DECEMBER 7
11/29/10 GOP presidential hopefuls already are lining up local supporters in what is now a red state
11/22/10 Burning down the House
11/15/10 Institutions of higher learning are finally beginning to teach important lifeskills
11/04/10 The war has just begun
11/01/10 Echoes of a speech 40 years ago this week still resonate today
10/25/10 50 years ago America chose between two men who were dramatically different --- and eerily similar





© 2011, The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Distributed by Universal Uclick, as agent for UFS.

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