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Jewish World Review Nov 8, 2011 / 11 Mar-Cheshvan 5772 Rattling sabers at the Iranians By Wesley Pruden
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
Something is definitely going on between Israel andIran. More behind-the-scenes diplomacy? Plotting tougher sanctions? Or is something real, finally in the works? It's not quite clear what that "something" may be. Uncertainty is exactly what the Israelis prescribe for now.
The window of opportunity to destroy Iran's nuclear-weapons program is swiftly closing, Western intelligence sources say. The Israelis, who have everything to lose, understand that if they're going to do something about a foe building a nuclear weapon while boasting that it will "wipe Israel off the map," the time to act is now.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), an agency of the United Nations, is expected to release this week a long-awaited finding of what it has further learned about the Iranian nuclear program. It's expected to confirm what everybody (except maybe the CIA) knows is going on in Iran. The document, inside sources say, will supply new evidence that the Iranians are working on a nuclear bomb and computer modeling of how to use it.
The Washington Post reported Sunday that the inspectoers learned that nuclear scientists from the old Soviet Union, perhaps rogues in it only for the money, and from Pakistan, an "ally" of the United States, have joined North Koreans to build the high-precision detonators needed to set off the chain reaction of a nuclear explosion.
The usual suspects are lining up to urge the West to go back to sleep and let the diplomats, who have been so effective in the past, handle things. Russia and China, ever eager to be helpful, have warned that publishing anything about the looming crisis will damage delicate diplomacy. They say this with the straight face that impresses diplomats in Foggy Bottom and other places where the terminally naive sip their herbal tea and tut-tut everythingIsrael does to defend itself.
The IAEA report, if it is anything like it is expected to be, will reject the infamous CIA conclusion sent to the White House four years ago that the Iranians had halted "weaponization" work. The British news agency Reuters reports that "a senior U.S. military official" says Iran has become "the biggest threat to the United States," and the president of Israel says "the military option" is "nearer."
The Iranians deny everything with usual blah, blah, blah that nobody actually listens to. Mahmoud Amahdinejad, the president of Iran who is in charge of purple rhetoric but who defers to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to make the important decisions, such as when to actually build a bomb, says the United States started all the talk because Iran is now the military equal of the United States and Israel. He boasts that the Americans quail before the prowess of the Iranians.
Rumor, gossip, hearsay and speculation abound in the region as usual, but the Jerusalem Post observes that this time "there is no question that something is afoot." Ehud Barak, the Israeli defense minister, and Leon Panetta, the secretary of Defense, have traded recent visits, and Gen. David Petraeus, the director of the CIA, was recently in Jerusalem. So was Adm. James Stavridis, the chief of the U.S. European Command. The London Guardian reports that the British generals and admirals are drafting contingency plans for British participation in an attack, led by the United States, on the Iranian nuclear works. There's a contingency plan for nearly everything in the vaults of the big powers, no matter how improbable; when you need an order of battle it's too late to write one. There's probably a British contingency plan to renew the hostilities at Yorktown. But we're talking about serious contingencies here.
The Obama administration tries to dampen speculation about what's up and what America could do to help -- or more likely hinder -- an Israeli bombing mission. Barack Obama's dearest wish might be to tilt toward the Muslims, but a decisive strike against the Iranian troublemakers would be a dramatic diversion from his soggy election-year prospects, making him an unlikely war hero. There's no great enthusiasm for war in Israel, either. Iran has 50,000 missiles capable of striking anywhere in Israel, and an Israeli raid on Iran would have to be accompanied by a simultaneous strike on Hizbollah missile sites close to home.
Jaw, jaw is nearly always better than war, war, as Winston Churchill famously observed. Just not always. Survival is always better than the alternative, achieved by any means necessary.
Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here. JWR contributor Wesley Pruden is editor emeritus of The Washington Times. Comment by clicking here.
© 2007 Wesley Pruden |
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