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Jewish World Review Sept. 13, 2011 / 14 Elul, 5771 Looking for omens in two campaigns By Wesley Pruden
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
The race to fill the vacant House seat of disgraced Anthony Weiner in New York City, to be won or lost today, should hold no special significance. The Republicans aren't particularly hard up for another vote in the House, and the district will disappear when district boundaries are rewritten later this year. No advantage of incumbency is at stake.
But it matters a lot in Washington, where strategists for both parties turn over every rock, twig and manhole cover to discern omens, hints and intimations. The polls suggest a mighty upset in the making; some of them show Bob Turner, the Republican candidate, leading David Weprin, a state assemblyman and the Democratic candidate, by six points. That's well outside the margin of error. Worse, another poll shows Mr. Turner leading among independents by 58 percent to 26 percent. Even among Democrats he's winning an astonishing 29 percent. Among the 37 percent of the voters who say U.S. support for Israel is important — mostly but by no means all of them Jews — the Republican candidate leads by 71 percent to 22 percent.
Such a Republican result on election night, never mind a rout, would be shocking indeed. The power of the quake felt at the White House would far exceed the wimpy little tremor of a fortnight ago that only rattled a few dishes and cracked an occasional plaster wall in Washington. But the Republicans don't have to win the special election to send a message from the district that straddles a line between Brooklyn and Queens. Most of the Republicans anybody sees in this district are visitors, and a close result would have to be interpreted, even by the New York Times, as a rebuke to President Obama — and a message to frightened Democrats that Mr. Obama could drag a lot of them to oblivion with him. Nobody likes oblivion.
Not only that, but such a result would demonstrate a deep fracture of the Jewish vote. This has always been reliably Democratic in New York and everywhere else, no matter that faithless yellow dogs have been yapping (and occasionally nipping) at the heels of the Jews for years.
There's a good Republican prospect in Nevada as well, where the Democratic candidate started the race burning barns, accusing her Republican opponent, Mark Amodei, of supporting cuts in federal entitlement programs. When he replied that she supported ObamaCare, and used $600,000 from the Republican congressional campaign committee to get his message across, the Democratic campaign collapsed. Now Democrats must consider whether they miscalculated and voters really do mean it when they say they're willing to sacrifice if that's what it takes to move America back from the edge of the abyss. Mr. Amodei goes into election day the unexpected heavy favorite.
The Republicans are playing smart ball, just as they did in Massachusetts last year, telling Washington to send big money not big mouths. The big mules — John Boehner and Eric Cantor first among them — stayed home. Mr. Turner is not exactly a stealth candidate, but he understands that all politics is local and winners play it that way. He got the endorsement of Ed Koch, the former Democratic mayor who has become highly suspicious of national Democrats over recent years. Maybe most important of all, he made himself Israel's best friend in the race. Israelis local issue No. 1 in certain neighborhoods in New York, and the 9th Congressional District is one of them. David Weprin is Jewish and Bob Turner is not, and Mr. Turner succeeded in selling the notion that better a righteous Gentile than a nice but bashful Jew.
Nothing marks this as a Republican pick-up. Nevertheless, making the race a referendum on Barack Obama's performance as president shows the president's 2012 vulnerability in bright relief. "This [race] will be a rejection of his policies that have stifled the district," says Edward Cox, the chairman of the New York Republican Party. "Maybe Democrats can save the situation by funneling hundreds of thousands of money in vicious ads — maybe that will work in this Democratic district, but they are already embarrassed by the fact that they've had to do it that way."
The implications in the race in Nevada is not necessarily about electing a new Republican congressman, either. The wise men are watching the results for clues to the prospects of the two candidates for the U.S. Senate next year. The Democrats have to win that race if they want to keep their majority, now down to four seats.
The night could be a big one.
Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here. JWR contributor Wesley Pruden is editor emeritus of The Washington Times. Comment by clicking here.
© 2007 Wesley Pruden |
Arnold Ahlert | |||||||||||||
