May 25, 2012 Rabbi Yonason Goldson: Thinking About Faith Mark Clayton: Is Hillary's State Dept. hacking Al Qaeda? Not quite David G. Savage: Supreme Court limits protection against double jeopardy Ashley Powers: A nightmare, then conviction is tossed Erika Bolstad: Temple cancels Wasserman Schultz speech Deroy Murdock: WWII hero Karski to receive U.S. Medal of Freedom Kimberly Lankford: Health Coverage for College Grads New therapy helps tinnitus sufferers Solar Impulse takes off on first intercontinental flight without using a drop of fuel The Kosher Gourmet by Ethel G. Hofman: The former president of the International Association of Culinary Professionals, whose members included the likes of Julia Child, is back with contemporary Shavous cuisine: Ruby Fruit Soup, Sweet Noodle Kugel with Cheese, Key Lime Curd, Calsone Casserole Frittata with Wild Mushrooms, Sun-dried tomatoes and Olives, Baked Tilapia with Pepper Cheese Cream and Brown Sugar Shortbread May 24, 2012 Jeff Jacoby: The peace process battered Israel's reputation Near-nuclear nation threatens to walk out of summit unless it gets its way Clifford D. May: What Iran's Rulers Want Michael Muskal: 'Pro-choice' position hits record low, according to poll Chris Farrell: Are We in a Tech Bubble? Kimberly Lankford: Switching Medicare Advantage Plans Mid-Year Bryan McIver, M.B., Ch.B., Ph.D.: Mayo Clinic Medical Edge: Understanding hyperthyroidism and its variety of treatment options French rights groups want Google to stop suggesting 'Jew' Two-fly rule for Beijing toilets The Kosher Gourmet by Penelope Wall: PHILLY CHEESE STEAKS --- hold the steak! May 23, 2012 Ex-CIA spy in Iran's Revolutionary Guard: Baghdad talks highlight Western naivete Putin's latest defiance shows Obama's whisper didn't work Tony Pugh: More private colleges offering tuition discounts Lisa Gerstner: 4 Money-Etiquette Questions Answered Mary Beth Franklin: How to Choose the Right Annuity for You Art Markman, Ph.D.: Get smart: How to bulk up your creativity muscles Israeli scientists use skin cells to help repair heart muscle Tina Susman: The wig wasn't enough: Man gets 13 years for posing as his dead mom The Kosher Gourmet by Emma Christensen:A simple way to do fish right May 22, 2012 David S. 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The Kosher Gourmet by Faith Duran : Cheesy Potato Breakfast Casserole with Cheddar and Sun-Dried Tomatoes May 16, 2012 Jackson Holahan: The Aleppo Codex Jonathan Tobin : Iran Declares Victory in Nuclear Talks Kiplinger Reports, Summarized Anne Kates Smith: 7 Stocks That Let You Sleep Tight Carmen Terzic, M.D., Ph.D. : Mayo Clinic Medical Edge: A variety of exercises can help improve balance Melissa Healy: National strategy on Alzheimer's disease aims to halt it by 2025 The Kosher Gourmet by Joyce White : GOODNESS GRACIOUS: GREENS! 4 winning recipes that are no longer just for down-home folks (Includes expert tips & techniques) May 15, 2012 Dennis Prager: God and Man at (and for) Liberty Kristen Chick: Obama administration resumes arms sales to Bahrain despite serious unresolved human rights issues. Activists feel abandoned Pat Mertz Esswein: Homes are now affordable again and mortgage rates are low. What you need to know before you buy Kathy Kristof: Our Practical Investor Fights Inflation with These 6 Investments Sue Hubbard, M.D.: The Kid's Doctor: Lactose intolerant young child? Check again Environmental Nutrition Editors: Get the facts on palm sugar sweetening The Kosher Gourmet by Kathy Hunt: Spread a Little Excitement with EXOTIC CONDIMENTS (4 RECIPES) May 14, 2012 Richard Simon: Purple Hearts for domestic terror victims? Nando Pelusi, Ph.D.: The privacy paradox: Surrounded by strangers, we risk isolation, anxiety Chris Farrell: Investing Lessons from the Great Recession Lisa Gerstner: How to Protect Your Identity, Finances If You Lose Your Phone Harvard Health Letters: Heart disease and dementia Tiffany O'Callaghan: New hormone mimics effects of exercise without the sweat The Kosher Gourmet by Megan Gordon: MANGO COCONUT OAT MORNING MUFFINS are a bright but hearty delight May 11, 2012 Rabbi B. 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Jewish World Review August 31, 2011 / 1 Elul, 5771 Seduced by the Cult of Experts By Jonah Goldberg http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | When asked what posed the greatest challenge to statesmen, Harold Macmillan, the former British prime minister, responded, "Events, my dear boy, events." That's because events tend to throw everybody off their plan. For example, Hurricane Irene ended President Obama's vacation early. And the hurricane's steady deterioration upset the plans of news producers who anticipated something more dramatic for their wall-to-wall coverage. In a similar fashion, Obama and his advisors predicted the economy would do better -- much better -- than it has, and those predictions were wrong. The president blames events: the European debt crisis, the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, the political tsunami of the 2010 elections. Some of that is plausible, but the two years of anemic job and economic growth that preceded those events can hardly be blamed on them. An earthquake in Japan didn't make Obama's green-jobs initiative a bust, and the Euro crisis didn't render "shovel-ready jobs" a myth. And it's those failures that have scuttled Obama's plans for an easy re-election in 2012, and left him and his supporters stunned and shocked. My National Review colleague Jim Geraghty has chronicled how, over the last few years, the media have greeted bad economic news by saying it is unexpected. For instance, Bloomberg reported "Sales of U.S. previously owned homes unexpectedly dropped in July." Reuters tells us that "Consumer spending unexpectedly fell in June." And so on. Many who've been following the trend point to media bias. The press corps, writ large, wants Obama to succeed, argues American Enterprise Institute political analyst Michael Barone, so "they characterize economic setbacks as unexpected, with the implication that there's still every reason to believe that, in Herbert Hoover's phrase, prosperity is just around the corner." I certainly think there's more than a little truth to that. The media get hooked on a story line -- hurricanes are getting worse because of climate change, Obama's a pragmatist doing the smartest things to fix the economy -- and when the facts contradict the story line, it's, well, unexpected. But it can't be simply media bias because the experts whom reporters call for quotes also are surprised. As Geraghty notes, groupthink is a culprit too. The guys on Wall Street use the same Keynesian computer models as the folks in the White House. There are no more devout members of the cult of expertise than mainstream journalists. They rely on experts for guidance about what is "mainstream" and accurate and what is not. Sometimes that's fine. Surgeons are extremely reliable sources to explain how a heart attack happens. They're not as reliable at telling you who will have one, save in a statistical sense, and even less reliable at telling you when a specific person will have one. That's because prediction is hard. Experts -- in politics, economics, climate -- are very, very bad at telling people what will happen tomorrow, let alone next year or next century. How many of the economists who tell us what to do now failed to see the mortgage debt crisis coming? Nearly all of them. Philip Tetlock's 2005 book, "Expert Political Judgment," documents that the predictions of even the most credentialed and experienced experts are often worse and very rarely better than random guessing. "In this age of academic hyperspecialization," he writes, "there is no reason for supposing that contributors to top journals -- distinguished political scientists, area study specialists, economists, and so on -- are any better than journalists or attentive readers of the New York Times in 'reading' emerging situations." The cult of experts has acolytes in all ideological camps, but its most institutionalized following is on the left. The left needs to believe in the authority of experts because without that authority, almost no economic intervention can be justified. If you concede that you have no idea whether your remedy will work, it's going to be hard to sell it to the patient. Market-based ideologies don't have that problem because markets expect events in ways experts never can. No president since Woodrow Wilson or Franklin Roosevelt has been more enamored with the cult of expertise than Obama. That none of his economic predictions have panned out is not surprising. What is surprising is that so many people are surprised. Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here. To comment on JWR contributor Jonah Goldberg's column click here. Jonah Goldberg Archives © 2006 TMS

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