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February 10, 2012
Lisa M. Krieger: Man with defibrillator demands access to his own heart's information
David G. Savage: Why activists may not be in a hurry to have High Court rule on alternative marriage
February 9, 2012
Laura McMullen: 10 Least Expensive Public Schools for Out-of-State Students
Kimberly Palmer: How to actually enjoy -- relaxing, financially -- your vacation
February 8, 2012
Warren Richey: Why momentous Prop. 8 ruling might not satisfy gay-rights groups
Menachem Wecker: Though Controversial, LL.M.'s Can Lead to Specialized Legal Jobs
The Kosher Gourmet byDana Velden: Going to the bother of making soup? You know it better be good. This CREAM OF TOMATO SOUP certainly is! And it's a cinch to make, too (Includes techinques and serving secrets)
February 7, 2012
Frank J. Gaffney, Jr.: Caught off-guard? President's Super Bowl interview with Matt Lauer gives those who need a reason not to vote for him, a darn good one
Suzanne Bohan: Leaping lizards! Tiny reptiles advancing robot design
February 6, 2012
Jonathan Tobin: Iran Threatens Israel With Destruction, But the New York Times Doesn't Hear It
Jeffrey Fleishman: In newly democratic Egypt, tens of democracy activists jailed, to stand trial; their groups are 'threatening the stability of the homeland'
Julie Deardorff : Researchers say antioxidants may not be that effective and could do more harm than good
Mark Clayton: How did Anonymous hackers eavesdrop on FBI and Scotland Yard?
February 3, 2012
Edmund Sanders : Israeli official says Iran is creating missile that could reach East Coast of US
Victoria Kim: Immigrant-smuggling ring used black drivers to avoid racial profiling
February 2, 2012
Jim Carney: Wrong number call may have saved her life
Reza Kahlili : Ex-CIA spy in Iran's Revolutionary Guard: What Obama doesn't grasp about striking deals with Tehran
Tina Susman: For woodchuck rescuer, every day is Groundhog Day
February 1, 2012
Brian Bennett: US officials see increasing threat of domestic attack from Iran
Emily Brandon: How to Take Advantage of New 401(k) Fee Disclosures
January 31, 2012
January 30, 2012
Paul Richter and Ramin Mostaghim: Misreading Teheran's limits -- deadly and economically devastating as they may be -- is a risk administration, Europe seem willing to take
Suzanne Bohan: Warning: Nap-deprived tots missing more than sleep, study finds
Meg Handley: Banks Revamping Rewards Programs to Woo Customers
January 27, 2012
Caroline B. Glick: Obama: Of course I intend to prevent a nuclear holocaust . . . in a few months
Yochonon Donn: In liberal New York City, fervently-Orthodox Jews may soon be getting a district to call their own
Jeannine Stein: An inflated ego and thinking you're 'all that' doesn't just make others sick of you, it can make you ill
Katy Hopkins: New budget rules may affect how much money you get for college
January 26, 2012
Ed Koch: To the New York Times, calling for the murder of Jews by those capable of having their incitement taken seriously isn't news
Jeannine Stein: Mental illness struck one in five U.S. adults in 2010: Report
January 25, 2012
Richard Simon: House passes two bills endorsing the use of religious symbols at military memorials
Fred Weir: Putin: Multiethnic Russia cannot survive as a US-style 'melting pot'; must find its own way
Susan Johnston: 5 Sneaky Coupon Strategies Consumers Should Watch Out For
January 24, 2012
Carol Clark: The price of your soul: How your brain decides whether to 'sell out'
Caroline B. Glick: America lost most in 'Arab Spring'. Sadly, many voters still don't grasp the extent
Warren Richey: Drug criminal scores win in GPS ruling from conservative-leaning high court
Erika Bolstad: Black conservatives gather to talk about gaining strength
January 23, 2012
Melissa Dribben: Jewish voters to play a key role in Florida's Republican primary
Jordan Rau: In quest to grow, Catholic hospital system will announce this morning its break from church
Ali Safi: U.S. envoy gives Taliban terms for peace talks
January 19, 2012
January 18, 2012
January 17, 2012
Frank J. Gaffney Jr.: No-kidding red lines: U.S. response to an Iranian nuke may be bluster, but Israel's won't be
David G. Savage: They sued their principals after slandering them online --- now the cases are headed to the Supreme Court
David Francis: Where to Invest in 2012: With stocks expected to rebound, opportunity abounds for investors
January 13, 2012
Ben Lynfield: Israeli lawmakers move to annex Jewish Judea, one museum at a time
Alexia Elejalde-Ruiz: Thriving through touch: Gentle massage helps older people with low mobility improve in mind and body
January 12, 2012
Warren Richey: Landmark Supreme Court ruling a 'resounding win' for religious groups
Warren Richey: Supreme Court says no to new rule on eyewitness testimony
John Fauber : Statins found to raise diabetes risk in postmenopausal women
Katy Hopkins : Consider This Before You Pay for an Online Degree
The Kosher Gourmet by Joseph Erdos: This mushroom and barley soup has an intense -- almost nutty -- flavor that mixes robust with Middle East. It has creaminess without cream
January 11, 2012
Shari Roan: Millions of atrial fibrillation sufferers at risk for devastating, but preventable, stroke
Tom Hussain: Pakistan -- recipient of more than $21 billion in civilian and military aid -- speeds pursuit of Iranian pipeline, defying US
David G. Savage: High court signals it won't be loosening TV's 'indecency' rules
Stephen Ceasar: Oklahoma's Islamic law amendment can't go into effect, court rules
January 10, 2012
Reza Kahlili: From an ex-CIA spy: US must exploit new split in Iran's Revolutionary Guard
Karen Kaplan: Study: Nicotine replacement products ineffective when used in real-life situations
January 9, 2012
Michael Doyle: Put through legal hell over dream home, couple fought back hard --- all the way to Supreme Court
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Jewish World Review
Oct. 17, 2008
18 Tishrei 5769
The Irrational Exuberance of November
By
Suzanne Fields
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http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
"Throw the bums out!" That's one of the most familiar campaign cries in
our history. It's even more effective than Herbert Hoover's slogan of "a
chicken in every pot and a car in every garage" and stirs the blood like
"Tippecanoe and Tyler, too" never could. Sometimes a little bum-throwing
makes sense. Sometimes it doesn't.
In just over three weeks we'll elect a president who, whether it turns
out that he's John McCain or Barack Obama, has crossed his heart and
hoped to die if he doesn't make good on his promise to throw out the
policies of an embattled president, if not that president himself.
"President Obama," if there is one, might even chase George and Laura
down Pennsylvania Ave., throwing sticks, stones and harsh words at the
moving van.
A lot of the rhetoric of any campaign is designed to encourage
foolishness, like expecting voters to believe everything they hear from
the platform. Voters often relish being unpredictable and make unlikely
choices. The political scientists and other academics who demand a
rational explanation of things for which there may be no rational
explanation often rail at "public ignorance" as the cause of not seeing
things as they think the public should. These wise men think all that's
important is "policy" and a candidate's ability to define undefined
presidential "doctrine," or to play a version of Trivial Pursuit, such
as identifying the middle initial of an assistant associate
undersecretary of state.
Larry Bartels, a professor of politics at Princeton, suggests in a
fascinating article in the Wilson Quarterly that the proper response to
such thinking is a mocking, "So what?" Voters usually get to the place
they want to go, and they choose how they get there.
"The political consequences of 'public ignorance' must be demonstrated,
not assumed," argues Prof. Bartels. "And that requires focusing not just
on what voters don't know, but on how what they don't know actually
affects how they vote. Do they manage to make sensible choices despite
being hazy about the details of politics and government? . If they do,
that's not stupid it's efficient." These political scientists might
make the common academic assumption that voters are always rational,
"but a half-century of [scientific analysis] provides plenty of grounds
for pessimism about voters' rationality."
Nothing annoys academics like the notion that faith in native common
sense trumps arcane argument, that voters will take a lot on faith if
they decide a candidate is likeable, down to earth and serious enough to
be trusted. Sometimes voters make choices that seem to be textbook cases
of irrationality, never more so, for example, than election results in
Arkansas in 1968. Voters there on a single day gave resounding victories
to George C. Wallace, a third-party segregationist candidate for
president; William Fulbright, a moderately conservative Democratic
incumbent U.S. senator; and Winthrop Rockefeller, a moderately liberal
Republican running for governor. They still talk about that one in
political-science seminars.
Sometimes voters just want to express unfocused anger, and take it out
on whoever is unlucky enough to be at hand. Like this year. George W.
Bush is not available as a target, so for some voters John McCain will
have to do.
There's a bizarre precedent of sorts. In the summer of 1916, killer
sharks repeatedly attacked swimmers along the New Jersey shore, killing
four of them over a period of weeks. The attacks were brazen, even for
hungry sharks. One shark even ventured up a freshwater stream to find a
victim. The attacks were unprecedented, and the tourist season was
ruined. Several hotels were all but forced into bankruptcy when
vacationers abandoned the shore by the thousands and didn't return.
Jersey residents demanded that Congress pass a law, or something, though
killer sharks are notorious for not obeying the law. So Jersey voters
took it out on a popular president, who had been the state's favorite
son from his term as governor and, before that, the president of
Princeton. Woodrow Wilson was re-elected president that November anyway,
though not with much help from voters in the towns along the Jersey
shore.
History is an unreliable guide for Messrs. McCain and Obama because
nobody can ever be sure where whimsy sometimes defined as
"irrationality" in college lecture halls will be aimed. Just as in
earlier election years, millions of voters will act on hunches and
guesses next month, on feelings held deep in the pit of the stomach.
Therein lies the secret to the great political success we call
democracy.
Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here.
Comment on JWR contributor Suzanne Fields' column by clicking here.
Suzanne Fields Archives
© 2006, Creators Syndicate, Suzanne Fields
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