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February 3, 2012
Edmund Sanders : Israeli official says Iran is creating missile that could reach East Coast of US
Victoria Kim: Immigrant-smuggling ring used black drivers to avoid racial profiling
February 2, 2012
Jim Carney: Wrong number call may have saved her life
Reza Kahlili : Ex-CIA spy in Iran's Revolutionary Guard: What Obama doesn't grasp about striking deals with Tehran
Tina Susman: For woodchuck rescuer, every day is Groundhog Day
February 1, 2012
Brian Bennett: US officials see increasing threat of domestic attack from Iran
Emily Brandon: How to Take Advantage of New 401(k) Fee Disclosures
January 31, 2012
January 30, 2012
Paul Richter and Ramin Mostaghim: Misreading Teheran's limits -- deadly and economically devastating as they may be -- is a risk administration, Europe seem willing to take
Suzanne Bohan: Warning: Nap-deprived tots missing more than sleep, study finds
Meg Handley: Banks Revamping Rewards Programs to Woo Customers
January 27, 2012
Caroline B. Glick: Obama: Of course I intend to prevent a nuclear holocaust . . . in a few months
Yochonon Donn: In liberal New York City, fervently-Orthodox Jews may soon be getting a district to call their own
Jeannine Stein: An inflated ego and thinking you're 'all that' doesn't just make others sick of you, it can make you ill
Katy Hopkins: New budget rules may affect how much money you get for college
January 26, 2012
Ed Koch: To the New York Times, calling for the murder of Jews by those capable of having their incitement taken seriously isn't news
Jeannine Stein: Mental illness struck one in five U.S. adults in 2010: Report
January 25, 2012
Richard Simon: House passes two bills endorsing the use of religious symbols at military memorials
Fred Weir: Putin: Multiethnic Russia cannot survive as a US-style 'melting pot'; must find its own way
Susan Johnston: 5 Sneaky Coupon Strategies Consumers Should Watch Out For
January 24, 2012
Carol Clark: The price of your soul: How your brain decides whether to 'sell out'
Caroline B. Glick: America lost most in 'Arab Spring'. Sadly, many voters still don't grasp the extent
Warren Richey: Drug criminal scores win in GPS ruling from conservative-leaning high court
Erika Bolstad: Black conservatives gather to talk about gaining strength
January 23, 2012
Melissa Dribben: Jewish voters to play a key role in Florida's Republican primary
Jordan Rau: In quest to grow, Catholic hospital system will announce this morning its break from church
Ali Safi: U.S. envoy gives Taliban terms for peace talks
January 19, 2012
January 18, 2012
January 17, 2012
Frank J. Gaffney Jr.: No-kidding red lines: U.S. response to an Iranian nuke may be bluster, but Israel's won't be
David G. Savage: They sued their principals after slandering them online --- now the cases are headed to the Supreme Court
David Francis: Where to Invest in 2012: With stocks expected to rebound, opportunity abounds for investors
January 13, 2012
Ben Lynfield: Israeli lawmakers move to annex Jewish Judea, one museum at a time
Alexia Elejalde-Ruiz: Thriving through touch: Gentle massage helps older people with low mobility improve in mind and body
January 12, 2012
Warren Richey: Landmark Supreme Court ruling a 'resounding win' for religious groups
Warren Richey: Supreme Court says no to new rule on eyewitness testimony
John Fauber : Statins found to raise diabetes risk in postmenopausal women
Katy Hopkins : Consider This Before You Pay for an Online Degree
The Kosher Gourmet by Joseph Erdos: This mushroom and barley soup has an intense -- almost nutty -- flavor that mixes robust with Middle East. It has creaminess without cream
January 11, 2012
Shari Roan: Millions of atrial fibrillation sufferers at risk for devastating, but preventable, stroke
Tom Hussain: Pakistan -- recipient of more than $21 billion in civilian and military aid -- speeds pursuit of Iranian pipeline, defying US
David G. Savage: High court signals it won't be loosening TV's 'indecency' rules
Stephen Ceasar: Oklahoma's Islamic law amendment can't go into effect, court rules
January 10, 2012
Reza Kahlili: From an ex-CIA spy: US must exploit new split in Iran's Revolutionary Guard
Karen Kaplan: Study: Nicotine replacement products ineffective when used in real-life situations
January 9, 2012
Michael Doyle: Put through legal hell over dream home, couple fought back hard --- all the way to Supreme Court
January 6, 2012
January 5, 2012
Tom A. Peter: Taliban talks: In administration's push to negotiate with terrorists, was a key hurdle overlooked?
Pete Spotts: Time cloaking: How scientists opened a hidden gap in time
Karen Kaplan: Teens aren't too old to boost their IQ, study finds
January 4, 2012
Scott Baldauf: Islamist terror group giving Christians living in north Nigeria days to flee
Howard LaFranchi : An accelerating covert war with Iran: Could it spiral into military action?
January 3, 2012
Tom A. Peter: Release several Taliban leaders from Guantanamo Bay; give them headquarters as confidence-building measure?
Elaine Woo: Thomas T. Johnson, L.A. judge who ruled that Holocaust was a fact, dies at 88
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Jewish World Review
Dec. 29, 2009
/ 11 Teves 5770
Dems' dreams of a blue West begin to turn red
By
Byron York
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http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
PHOENIX According to the conventional wisdom after last year's presidential election, Barack Obama's victory proved that a number of once reliably red states Virginia, North Carolina and Colorado, among them were turning blue, perhaps permanently. Even here in Arizona, Obama gave Republican favorite son John McCain a run for his money, and the 2008 election handed a majority of the state's congressional districts to Democrats. The home of Barry Goldwater might not have been truly blue, but it was shading purple.
That was then. Now, with Democrats pushing an agenda of stimulus, cap and trade, and healthcare reform, all opposed by majorities of Republicans and independents, we might be seeing the re-reddening of Arizona or, rather, the re-emergence of the state that has always been.
"I think Arizona has always been a state that can go blue for individuals, but fundamentally, in terms of attitudes, it remains a libertarian/conservative state," says Margaret Kenski, owner of Arizona Opinion, a Republican-oriented polling firm. Kenski says her polling has consistently shown that about 20 percent of Arizonans describe themselves as liberal, while 35 percent call themselves moderate, 23 percent call themselves somewhat conservative, and 22 percent say they are very conservative. The bottom line: "It's always been a moderately conservative state," Kenski says.
But now, Democrats control five of Arizona's eight congressional seats. Three of those five Democrats Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick, Harry Mitchell and Gabrielle Giffords hail from districts that are largely Republican. Kirkpatrick is a freshman, while Mitchell and Giffords were first elected in 2006, meaning they are all products of elections in which voters rejected GOP candidates because of unhappiness with George W. Bush and the GOP majority in Congress. Now, it is Democrats who are likely to bear the burden of voter discontent.
Kirkpatrick, Mitchell and Giffords all voted for the $787 billion stimulus bill. They all voted for the House national healthcare bill. And Giffords voted for cap and trade. Those won't be easy records to defend in 2010.
"We have three districts in the state that should or could be Republican," says one longtime Arizona politico who asked to be nameless. "Conditions for Republican pickups should be the best we've ever had."
All three vulnerable Democrats are viewed as appealing candidates. "Giffords has a lot of money saved up, she has an image as a pleasant person, and she's married to an astronaut," says Kenski. "Her PR machine will say she's a middle-of-the-road Democrat, but if you look at key votes, she goes counter to the way most Arizonans would have voted." Similar things could be said about the records of Kirkpatrick and Mitchell.
And then there's the Obama effect. The polls here show Obama's job-approval rating has dipped below 50 percent, just as it has nationally. It's hard to see how the president can offer much help to Democrats running in majority-Republican districts.
There seems little doubt that if Republicans run attractive, appealing conservative candidates, they could probably win all three races, which would upend the Arizona delegation and make it six to two in favor of the GOP. The problem is finding those good candidates. "The Republican Party in the state is a mess," says the GOP politico. "It's dysfunctional, rudderless, not accomplishing anything, not even doing the basics of getting out the vote and doing voter-registration drives."
Much of that dissolution occurred during years that Republicans were in control and the GOP got lazy. Now, completely out of power, and with Democrats overreaching, Republicans may be getting their act together. "Like the alcoholics say, we've hit bottom," adds the politico. "Or that's what I'd like to believe."
As far as the Senate is concerned, Arizona's delegation is unlikely to change hands any time soon. Republican Sen. Jon Kyl was elected to a third term in 2006. McCain is up for re-election next year, and may face a primary challenge from the right, in the person of J.D. Hayworth, the radio host and former congressman. But assuming McCain survives the primary, he'll likely be re-elected.
In any event, 2010 is shaping up as a year in which Republicans have the chance to win back some of the ground they lost in 2006 and 2008. And it's not just in Arizona. There is real potential for reddening in other Western states, as well, notably Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.
The Democrats' hopes of a massive blue wave changing American politics forever may have been just wishful thinking.
Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here.
Comment on Byron York's column by clicking here.
Previously:
12/22/09 Why Dems push health care, even if it kills them
11/30/09 Dems' kamikaze mission: Health care by New Year's
11/23/09 Why it's a mistake to bring Gitmo prisoners here
11/16/09 Dems' slick fix: $210 billion of fiscal restraint
11/10/09 Obama can't be community organizer for the world
11/02/09 At key moment, Obama leaves health post unfilled
10/26/09 Fierce urgency' for jobs, not health care
10/12/09 Facts hurt Jennings in youth sex controversy
10/05/09 Amid terror threat, Dems chip away at Patriot Act
09/27/09 In Afghanistan, let U.S. troops be warriors
09/21/09 Under fire, Democrats abandon ACORN in drove
09/14/09 Dems stifle Republican health care plans
09/08/09 For Dems, a serious Charlie Rangel problem
09/07/09 Obama's speech: Wrong setting for a sales job
09/01/09 What happened to the antiwar movement?
08/24/09 Why Dems may jam through health care plan
08/17/09 GOP thinks the unthinkable: Victory in 2010
08/10/09 The empty words of a journalist turned flack
08/03/09 Probe finds new clues in AmeriCorps IG scandal
07/27/09 Obamacare haunted by unkept promises of stimulus
07/20/09 Why the GOP failed the Sotomayor test
07/13/09 What the GOPers will ask Sotomayor
06/29/09 Serious questions remain for Mark Sanford
06/22/09 How GOPers can crack the AmeriCorps scandal
06/16/09 Worried about Sotomayor? Consider Andre Davis
06/08/09 Can Mitch Daniels save the GOP?
06/01/09 When the Dems derailed a Latino nominee
05/26/09 Why the GOP will defeat Obama on healthcare
05/19/09 Rosy report can't hide stimulus problems
05/12/09 The Reagan legacy is the man himself
05/05/09 Sen. Specter, meet your new friends
04/27/09 Ted Olson: ‘Torture’ probes will never end
04/20/09 Who's Laughing at the Axis of Evil today?
04/14/09 Congress needs Google to track stimulus money
04/06/09 Beyond AIG: A bill to let Big Government set your salary
03/30/09 On Spending and the Deficit, McCain Was Right
03/24/09 It's Obama's crisis now
03/17/09: Geithner-Obama economics: A joke that's not funny
© 2009, NEA
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