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February 10, 2012
Rabbi Nathan Lopes Cardozo: The biblical case against small-mindedness involved diminishing His precious prophet
Caroline B. Glick: The Peace Process is over. Finally
Lisa M. Krieger: Man with defibrillator demands access to his own heart's information
David G. Savage: Why activists may not be in a hurry to have High Court rule on alternative marriage
Rachel Koning Beals: Gen X Women Continue to Shrink Gender Investing Gap
The Kosher Gourmet by Faith Durand: Who Says You Can't Make Restaurant Favorites at Home?: MANGO AND STICKY RICE
February 9, 2012
Jeff Strickler: An argument a day keeps the divorce away, they say
Clifford D. May: CAIR's Crusade against The Third Jihad
Melissa Healy: Study finds jolt to the brain boosts memory
Laura McMullen: 10 Least Expensive Public Schools for Out-of-State Students
Kimberly Palmer: How to actually enjoy -- relaxing, financially -- your vacation
Emily Brandon: 10 Necessities for a Great Retirement Spot
The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington: Winter Squash and Red Swiss Chard Risotto is Colorful Cozy Cold Weather Fare (includes detailed dos and don'ts)
February 8, 2012
Rivy Poupko Kletenik: Tree hostility: The auspicious history of the evolution of Tu B'Shevat
Steven Emerson: Planting Trees is Racist?!
Warren Richey: Why momentous Prop. 8 ruling might not satisfy gay-rights groups
Anne Applebaum: Russia's Potemkin democracy
Menachem Wecker: Though Controversial, LL.M.'s Can Lead to Specialized Legal Jobs
Emily Brandon: 10 Necessities for a Great Retirement Spot
The Kosher Gourmet byDana Velden: Going to the bother of making soup? You know it better be good. This CREAM OF TOMATO SOUP certainly is! And it's a cinch to make, too (Includes techinques and serving secrets)
February 7, 2012
Kathleen Hennessey and Christi Parsons: Obama not worried that birth-control move will hurt his re-election chances with Catholics, other faithful
Caroline B. Glick: Obama's rhetorical storm
Frank J. Gaffney, Jr.: Caught off-guard? President's Super Bowl interview with Matt Lauer gives those who need a reason not to vote for him, a darn good one
Suzanne Bohan: Leaping lizards! Tiny reptiles advancing robot design
David Francis: How to Avoid an IRS Audit
The Kosher Gourmet by Emma Christensen: These homemade energy bars (3 recipes) are far better workout fuel than commercial ones, packing power and taste
February 6, 2012
Scott Peterson: Iran's top ayatollah: We're trumping the West
Jonathan Tobin: Iran Threatens Israel With Destruction, But the New York Times Doesn't Hear It
Jeffrey Fleishman: In newly democratic Egypt, tens of democracy activists jailed, to stand trial; their groups are 'threatening the stability of the homeland'
Julie Deardorff : Researchers say antioxidants may not be that effective and could do more harm than good
Philip Moeller: Where Smart Investors Put Their Money
Mark Clayton: How did Anonymous hackers eavesdrop on FBI and Scotland Yard?
The Kosher Gourmet by Joseph Erdos: Vegetable Frittata --- leftovers never tasted so scrumptious
February 3, 2012
Rabbi Dr. Warren Goldstein: Living with ideals --- in reality
Caroline B. Glick: Fool me twice
Jonathan Tobin : Adelsonphobia Strikes in Nevada Caucus
Edmund Sanders : Israeli official says Iran is creating missile that could reach East Coast of US
Kimberly Palmer : 8 Ways to Get Ready for Retirement Now
Victoria Kim: Immigrant-smuggling ring used black drivers to avoid racial profiling
The Kosher Gourmet by Faith Durand: A quick cookie recipe: Hazelnut and Olive Oil Shortbread: Sweet, Nutty, and Savory
February 2, 2012
Rabbi Yaakov Rosenblatt : Welcome Home, Governor Perry
Jim Carney: Wrong number call may have saved her life
Reza Kahlili : Ex-CIA spy in Iran's Revolutionary Guard: What Obama doesn't grasp about striking deals with Tehran
Kelsey Sheehy : 5 Tips for Choosing an M.B.A. Concentration
Rachel Koning Beals : Investors Increasingly Tap Social Media for Stock Tips
Tina Susman: For woodchuck rescuer, every day is Groundhog Day
The Kosher Gourmet by Leela Cyd Ross : Savory vegetable pie is a taste of European bistro with minimal effort and maximal flavor
February 1, 2012
Nara Schoenberg: What to do when you've been dissed
Michelle Malkin: First, They Came for the Catholics
Brian Bennett: US officials see increasing threat of domestic attack from Iran
Lisa M. Krieger: Possible breakthrough in preventing Alzheimer's
Emily Brandon: How to Take Advantage of New 401(k) Fee Disclosures
Susan Johnston: 5 Apps for Organizing Your Expenses at Tax Time
The Kosher Gourmet by Mario Batali: The famed chef's Broccoli and White Bean Soup can easily be a lunch in itself, or a nice antipasto --- and is hard to mess up
January 31, 2012
Paul Greenberg: Separation of Church and State works two ways
Caroline B. Glick: Hamas and the Washington establishment
Frank J. Gaffney Jr.: Uncle Sam is joining in efforts to crack down on Islamists' critics
Danielle Kurtzleben: The 10 Worst Cities for Finding a Job
Laura McMullen: 3 Tips to Overcome a Bad Grade in College
The Kosher Gourmet by Faith Durand: Orzo dish mixes plump, chewy grains with caramelized onions, garlic, mushrooms and sweet potato
January 30, 2012
Rabbi Avi Shafran: Blind faith and physics
Paul Richter and Ramin Mostaghim: Misreading Teheran's limits -- deadly and economically devastating as they may be -- is a risk administration, Europe seem willing to take
Suzanne Bohan: Warning: Nap-deprived tots missing more than sleep, study finds
Meg Handley: Banks Revamping Rewards Programs to Woo Customers
Menachem Wecker: 3 Do's and Don'ts for Healthy Studying in College
The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington: Butternut Squash Gratin with Tomato Fondue is a combination of the sweet and creamy
January 27, 2012
Rabbi Berel Wein: What Pharaoh can teach us sophisticates about being stubborn
Caroline B. Glick: Obama: Of course I intend to prevent a nuclear holocaust . . . in a few months
Yochonon Donn: In liberal New York City, fervently-Orthodox Jews may soon be getting a district to call their own
Jeannine Stein: An inflated ego and thinking you're 'all that' doesn't just make others sick of you, it can make you ill
Katy Hopkins: New budget rules may affect how much money you get for college
The Kosher Gourmet by Emma Christensen: Barigoule is a light and tangy dish of artichoke hearts stewed in white wine
January 26, 2012
Jonathan Tobin: Newt the closet anti-Semite?
Ed Koch: To the New York Times, calling for the murder of Jews by those capable of having their incitement taken seriously isn't news
Martin Peretz: One Year Later: The Failure of the Arab Spring
Rachel Koning Beals: Need to Know info before investing in Muni Bonds this year
Jeannine Stein: Mental illness struck one in five U.S. adults in 2010: Report
The Kosher Gourmet by Leela Cyd Ross: Curried Coconut Carrot Soup. Need we say more?
January 25, 2012
Andrew Silow-Carroll: Speak politics the Jewish way!
Richard Simon: House passes two bills endorsing the use of religious symbols at military memorials
Fred Weir: Putin: Multiethnic Russia cannot survive as a US-style 'melting pot'; must find its own way
Susan Johnston: 5 Sneaky Coupon Strategies Consumers Should Watch Out For
Menachem Wecker: Adding an extra 'm' -- marriage -- to that M.B.A.
Melissa Healy: Harnessing shrooms' magic
The Kosher Gourmet by Hilary Meyer: 3 Secrets Leave All of the Comfort in this 'Comfort Food', but few of the Calories
January 24, 2012
Carol Clark: The price of your soul: How your brain decides whether to 'sell out'
Caroline B. Glick: America lost most in 'Arab Spring'. Sadly, many voters still don't grasp the extent
Warren Richey: Drug criminal scores win in GPS ruling from conservative-leaning high court
Jada A. Graves: 6 Careers to Watch in 2012
Jason Koebler: Who Should Have Access to Student Records?
Erika Bolstad: Black conservatives gather to talk about gaining strength
The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington: This luscious fruit bread marries toasted pecans with juicy pears. Perfect with a pot of tea
January 23, 2012
Melissa Dribben: Jewish voters to play a key role in Florida's Republican primary
Stephanie Hanes: Toddlers to tweens: Relearning how to play
Jack Kelly : Still ignoring history
Rachel Koning Beals: Awkward Questions You Must Ask Your Financial Adviser
Jordan Rau: In quest to grow, Catholic hospital system will announce this morning its break from church
Ali Safi: U.S. envoy gives Taliban terms for peace talks
The Kosher Gourmet by Emma Christensen: Spanakopita is a golden pie that manages to be healthy yet still taste indulgent
January 19, 2012
Clifford D. May: How terrorists lose their stigma
Suzanne Bohan: Vanquishing social anxieties without drugs
Lisa Fernandez and Sean Webby: In alternative lifestyle, domestic violence means men as victims and women being abusers
Danielle Kurtzleben: The 10 Best Cities for Finding a Job
The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington: Three bean soup with gremolata
January 18, 2012
Edward I. Koch: Why the Crocodile Tears, Hillary?
David G. Savage: Supreme Court to Principals: You have been warned
George Friedman of Stratfor: Iran, the U.S. and the Strait of Hormuz Crisis
Jason Koebler: 'Holy Grail' of Flu Vaccines by Next Year
Alex M. Parker: The Off-the-Radar Congressional Targets of 2012
The Kosher Gourmet by Susan Russo: Got soft apples? Make Apple-Maple Walnut Breakfast Quinoa
January 17, 2012
Frank J. Gaffney Jr.: No-kidding red lines: U.S. response to an Iranian nuke may be bluster, but Israel's won't be
David G. Savage: They sued their principals after slandering them online --- now the cases are headed to the Supreme Court
Sharon Palmer, R.D.: Believe it or not, your cuppa joe offers potential health perks
David Francis: Where to Invest in 2012: With stocks expected to rebound, opportunity abounds for investors
The Kosher Gourmet by Emma Christensen: Eleventh-Hour Freezer Pasta, Made Interesting: Ravioli with romesco sauce; Tortellini salad with apples and walnuts
January 13, 2012
Chief Rabbi Dr. Warren Goldstein: Expansion Of Spirit (PROFOUND yet UPLIFTING)
Ben Lynfield: Israeli lawmakers move to annex Jewish Judea, one museum at a time
Rachel Koning Beals:Top Complaints About Daily Deal Sites --- how to avoid missteps
Alexia Elejalde-Ruiz: Thriving through touch: Gentle massage helps older people with low mobility improve in mind and body
The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington: Braised Oxtail Stew with Olives
January 12, 2012
Warren Richey: Landmark Supreme Court ruling a 'resounding win' for religious groups
Warren Richey: Supreme Court says no to new rule on eyewitness testimony
Ken Dilanian and David S. Cloud: In secret study, CIA and 15 other U.S. intelligence agencies warn Obama against leaving Afghanistan too soon
John Fauber : Statins found to raise diabetes risk in postmenopausal women
Katy Hopkins : Consider This Before You Pay for an Online Degree
Menachem Wecker : 4 Technology Must Haves for Online Students
The Kosher Gourmet by Joseph Erdos: This mushroom and barley soup has an intense -- almost nutty -- flavor that mixes robust with Middle East. It has creaminess without cream
January 11, 2012
Shari Roan: Millions of atrial fibrillation sufferers at risk for devastating, but preventable, stroke
Tom Hussain: Pakistan -- recipient of more than $21 billion in civilian and military aid -- speeds pursuit of Iranian pipeline, defying US
David G. Savage: High court signals it won't be loosening TV's 'indecency' rules
Stephen Ceasar: Oklahoma's Islamic law amendment can't go into effect, court rules
Rachel Koning Beals: Should You Invest in Bond Funds or Individual Issues?
The Kosher Gourmet by Faith Durand : Colorful Lentil Salad with Walnuts and Herbs
January 10, 2012
Reza Kahlili: From an ex-CIA spy: US must exploit new split in Iran's Revolutionary Guard
Karen Kaplan: Study: Nicotine replacement products ineffective when used in real-life situations
Paul Bedard: Study: Is Fox Too Balanced?
Rachel Koning Beals: Is it Time to Move into Homebuilder Stocks?
The Kosher Gourmet by Carolyn Malcoun: Brothy Chinese Noodles

Half the Sodium (and More Than Twice the Fiber!)

January 9, 2012
Caroline B. Glick: The land-for-peace hoax (MUST-READ/FORWARD/SHARE)
Michael Doyle: Put through legal hell over dream home, couple fought back hard --- all the way to Supreme Court
Bonnie Miller Rubin: The new college-admission essay: Short and tweet(ish)
Rachel Koning Beals: Why Mid-Caps Stand Out in This Slow-Growth Stretch
The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington: Cumin seed roasted cauliflower with salted yogurt, mint and pomegranate seeds
January 6, 2012
Jonathan Rosenblum: Greatness --- and those who sully it
Clifford D. May: The Historian, the Diplomat, and the Spy
Paul Bedard: Study: Obama Is Late Night's Biggest Joke
Rachel Koning Beals: An Investing Guide to Closed-End Funds
The Kosher Gourmet by Faith Durand: Slow Cooker Peppered Beef Shank in Red Wine

Jewish World Review Dec. 29, 2008 / 2 Teves 5769

Humbled By Our Ignorance

By Robert J. Samuelson


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http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | It's the end of an era. We know that 2008, much like 1932 or 1980, marks a dividing line for the American economy and society. But what lies on the other side is hazy at best. The great lesson of the past year is how little we understand and can control the economy. This ignorance has bred today's insecurity, which in turn is now a governing reality of the crisis.


Go back to the onset of the crisis in mid-2007. Who then thought that the federal government would rescue Citigroup or the insurance giant AIG; or that the Federal Reserve, striving to prevent a financial collapse, would pump out more than $1 trillion in new credit; or that Congress would allocate $700 billion to the Treasury for the same purpose; or that General Motors would flirt with bankruptcy?


In 2008, much conventional wisdom crashed.


It was once believed that the crisis of "subprime" mortgages — loans to weaker borrowers — would be limited, because these loans represent only 12 percent of all home mortgages. Even better, they were widely held, diluting losses to individual banks and investors.


Wrong. Subprime mortgage losses (20 percent are delinquent) triggered a full-blown financial crisis. Confidence evaporated, because subprime loans were embedded in complex securities whose values and ownership were hard to determine. Similar doubts afflicted other bonds. Demand for all these securities shriveled. Lenders hoarded cash and favored safe U.S. Treasuries. Because investment banks and others relied on short-term debt (a.k.a. "leverage"), a loss of confidence and credit threatened failure. Lehman Brothers failed. The financial system had overborrowed and underestimated risk.


It was once believed that American consumers could borrow and spend more, because higher home values and stock prices substituted for annual savings. Consider: From 1985 to 2005, the personal savings rate dropped from 9 percent of disposable income to almost zero. But over the same years, households' net worth (assets minus liabilities) quadrupled, from $14 trillion to $57 trillion.


Wrong. In recent years, consumers increasingly overborrowed, especially against inflated home values. With the housing "bubble" now collapsed, net worth is falling. Homeowners' equity in their homes — the share not borrowed — is at a record low of 45 percent, down from 59 percent in 2005. Consumers have responded by retrenching big-time. Retail sales have dropped for five straight months; vehicle sales are a third below 2006 levels.


It was once believed that the rest of the world would "decouple" from the United States. As Europe, Asia and Latin America expanded, their buying would cushion our recession. A better-balanced world would emerge, with smaller U.S. trade deficits and lower surpluses elsewhere.


Wrong. The crisis has gone global; economic growth in 2009 will be the lowest since at least 1980. Even China has slowed; steel output was down 12 percent in November from a year earlier. The crisis has spread through two channels: reduced money flows and reduced trade. Global financial markets are interconnected. Customer redemptions forced U.S. mutual funds and hedge funds to sell in emerging markets (such as Brazil or Korea), whose stocks have dropped about 60 percent from their peak. Credit has tightened, as money flowing into developing countries is expected to shrink 50 percent in 2009 from 2007 levels, estimates the World Bank. The bank expects trade, up 7.5 percent in 2007, to fall in 2009 for the first time since 1982.


So much that has happened was unexpected that the boom and bust's origins are obscured. These lie in the side effects of declining inflation that started in the 1980s and, in the process of reducing interest rates, boosted stock prices and housing values. Recall that in 1981, when inflation was 9 percent, 30-year mortgages averaged 15 percent. As rates fell (mortgages were 10 percent by 1990, 7 percent by 2001), home prices rose. People could afford more. With lower interest rates, stocks became more valuable.


All the bad habits of recent years — excessive borrowing by consumers and money managers, careless and reckless lending — grew in a climate when gains seemed ordained. Even after the "tech bubble" burst in 2000, stock prices at year-end 2002 were seven times their year-end 1981 level. Home prices increased steadily; in the 1990s, they rose 45 percent.


Prosperity, apparently forgiving of mistakes, bred the complacency that undid prosperity. On bad mortgages, losses could be recovered by selling the homes at higher values. Thus rationalized, bad loans were made. Some stocks might decline, but over time, most would rise. Risk seemed to recede, so investors and money managers undertook riskier strategies.


What will emerge from these shattered illusions? Will the crash stir social unrest, abroad if not here? Will Americans become so thrifty that they hamper recovery? Will economic nationalism surge? How will capitalism be reshaped? Much depends on whether the frantic policies to combat the recession succeed. Probably they will, but there are no guarantees. Our ignorance is humbling.

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Comment on Robert J. Samuelson's column by clicking here.


07/31/08: The homeownership obsession
07/24/08: A Depression? Hardly
07/17/08: Why isn't globalization making the interconnected world more stable?



© 2008, WPWG

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